Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#77
Expected Predictive Rating+4.3#108
Pace67.2#225
Improvement+4.1#31

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#36
First Shot+5.9#31
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#181
Layup/Dunks-3.0#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#7
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#77
Freethrows+0.0#176
Improvement+2.4#55

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#135
First Shot+1.4#133
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#174
Layups/Dunks+4.8#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#66
Freethrows-0.3#217
Improvement+1.7#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.8% 24.1% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 1.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.4 11.8 12.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.8% 97.9%
Conference Champion 12.0% 33.3% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
First Round17.7% 23.5% 16.0%
Second Round4.3% 6.5% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.7% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 22.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 23 - 5
Quad 39 - 412 - 9
Quad 49 - 221 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 316   Southeast Missouri St. L 94-99 95%     0 - 1 -16.8 +3.1 -19.4
  Nov 13, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 78-60 97%     1 - 1 +3.3 -4.6 +7.0
  Nov 17, 2021 212   @ Sam Houston St. W 77-55 75%     2 - 1 +22.2 +9.0 +14.3
  Nov 22, 2021 239   Long Beach St. W 92-66 86%     3 - 1 +21.8 +14.6 +6.5
  Nov 23, 2021 174   East Tennessee St. L 76-77 77%     3 - 2 -1.5 +13.0 -14.6
  Nov 24, 2021 271   George Washington W 72-54 89%     4 - 2 +11.9 -1.6 +13.8
  Dec 01, 2021 202   @ Illinois St. L 74-79 OT 73%     4 - 3 0 - 1 -4.2 -8.4 +4.7
  Dec 04, 2021 29   BYU L 68-74 41%     4 - 4 +3.7 +0.6 +3.0
  Dec 08, 2021 292   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 81-55 88%     5 - 4 +20.7 +11.0 +11.6
  Dec 11, 2021 120   Oral Roberts W 69-60 73%     6 - 4 +9.7 -7.7 +17.1
  Dec 15, 2021 98   South Dakota St. W 75-63 65%     7 - 4 +15.3 -4.9 +19.7
  Dec 18, 2021 329   Central Arkansas W 106-70 96%     8 - 4 +22.4 +24.5 -1.8
  Dec 22, 2021 38   @ St. Mary's L 58-75 28%     8 - 5 -3.8 +1.2 -6.7
  Jan 02, 2022 106   Drake W 61-56 69%     9 - 5 1 - 1 +7.0 -5.8 +13.3
  Jan 05, 2022 117   @ Bradley W 71-69 55%     10 - 5 2 - 1 +8.0 +7.6 +0.5
  Jan 08, 2022 101   Northern Iowa L 84-85 68%     10 - 6 2 - 2 +1.5 +17.4 -16.0
  Jan 12, 2022 133   Southern Illinois W 81-76 77%     11 - 6 3 - 2 +4.6 +13.8 -8.8
  Jan 15, 2022 186   @ Valparaiso W 74-57 71%     12 - 6 4 - 2 +18.6 +8.6 +11.6
  Jan 19, 2022 202   Illinois St. W 88-63 86%     13 - 6 5 - 2 +20.8 +12.7 +8.9
  Jan 22, 2022 28   @ Loyola Chicago L 64-72 22%    
  Jan 25, 2022 169   @ Indiana St. W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 270   Evansville W 73-57 93%    
  Feb 02, 2022 133   @ Southern Illinois W 67-64 58%    
  Feb 06, 2022 28   Loyola Chicago L 67-70 42%    
  Feb 09, 2022 106   @ Drake W 71-70 49%    
  Feb 12, 2022 186   Valparaiso W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 15, 2022 169   Indiana St. W 77-67 83%    
  Feb 20, 2022 101   @ Northern Iowa L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 23, 2022 117   Bradley W 73-67 73%    
  Feb 26, 2022 270   @ Evansville W 71-60 83%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.7 3.6 0.9 12.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.5 14.6 16.6 7.7 1.3 45.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.3 10.5 8.8 1.9 0.1 24.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.1 3.9 0.5 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.9 0.2 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.8 10.8 19.1 24.4 20.9 12.5 5.0 0.9 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.1
15-3 72.9% 3.6    2.4 1.2 0.0
14-4 37.8% 4.7    2.0 2.5 0.3
13-5 11.5% 2.4    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1
12-6 1.7% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 5.8 5.0 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.9% 53.4% 37.9% 15.5% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 25.0%
15-3 5.0% 33.0% 29.5% 3.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 3.3 5.0%
14-4 12.5% 27.0% 26.6% 0.4% 12.1 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.9 0.0 9.1 0.6%
13-5 20.9% 21.7% 21.6% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 16.4 0.0%
12-6 24.4% 16.4% 16.4% 12.8 0.0 1.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 20.4
11-7 19.1% 12.2% 12.2% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 16.8
10-8 10.8% 9.9% 9.9% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 9.8
9-9 4.8% 7.9% 7.9% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.4
8-10 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.8% 17.5% 0.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 6.2 7.5 1.8 0.2 82.2 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 7.5 1.8 1.8 6.0 22.3 24.7 16.3 9.6 9.6 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 34.0% 10.8 8.2 4.1 10.9 8.2 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 15.2% 11.1 3.8 6.3 5.1