Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#169
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#186
Pace73.7#65
Improvement+1.4#115

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#219
First Shot+1.9#116
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#344
Layup/Dunks+3.9#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#78
Freethrows-1.1#263
Improvement-3.2#335

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#130
First Shot-0.9#203
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#27
Layups/Dunks+2.4#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#295
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#286
Freethrows+0.7#141
Improvement+4.5#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.9% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 12.9% 17.8% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 23.5% 31.0% 10.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.0% 4.6% 13.9%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round1.4% 1.8% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 63.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 35 - 65 - 15
Quad 46 - 212 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 321   @ Green Bay W 81-77 77%     1 - 0 -3.7 -0.1 -3.8
  Nov 12, 2021 4   @ Purdue L 67-92 3%     1 - 1 -3.3 -1.6 -0.6
  Nov 18, 2021 184   Old Dominion W 77-36 53%     2 - 1 +40.1 +7.0 +34.8
  Nov 19, 2021 30   Oklahoma L 63-87 13%     2 - 2 -12.0 -7.4 -3.1
  Nov 21, 2021 93   New Mexico St. L 66-80 27%     2 - 3 -7.8 -2.9 -5.4
  Nov 27, 2021 242   @ Ball St. L 75-97 57%     2 - 4 -24.0 -2.9 -20.2
  Dec 01, 2021 28   @ Loyola Chicago L 76-88 9%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +2.8 +12.7 -10.2
  Dec 04, 2021 163   Miami (OH) W 69-68 59%     3 - 5 -1.5 -9.5 +8.0
  Dec 13, 2021 188   @ North Dakota St. L 70-77 44%     3 - 6 -5.6 +0.0 -5.9
  Dec 18, 2021 334   Alabama A&M W 67-43 90%     4 - 6 +10.1 -6.3 +16.9
  Jan 02, 2022 117   Bradley W 76-71 46%     5 - 6 1 - 1 +6.0 +0.6 +5.1
  Jan 11, 2022 101   @ Northern Iowa L 74-80 OT 23%     5 - 7 1 - 2 +1.5 -4.6 +6.7
  Jan 15, 2022 28   Loyola Chicago L 56-64 18%     5 - 8 1 - 3 +1.8 -12.8 +14.8
  Jan 19, 2022 133   @ Southern Illinois L 55-63 32%     5 - 9 1 - 4 -3.4 -8.3 +3.9
  Jan 22, 2022 186   Valparaiso W 70-67 64%    
  Jan 25, 2022 77   Missouri St. L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 30, 2022 117   @ Bradley L 67-73 27%    
  Feb 02, 2022 106   Drake L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 186   @ Valparaiso L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 08, 2022 270   Evansville W 69-61 80%    
  Feb 10, 2022 270   @ Evansville W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 12, 2022 202   Illinois St. W 77-73 66%    
  Feb 15, 2022 77   @ Missouri St. L 67-77 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 133   Southern Illinois W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 21, 2022 106   @ Drake L 67-74 25%    
  Feb 23, 2022 101   Northern Iowa L 72-75 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 202   @ Illinois St. L 75-76 45%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 3.4 0.8 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.2 3.1 5.9 1.9 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 0.2 3.2 8.1 3.3 0.2 15.0 6th
7th 0.3 3.6 9.9 4.8 0.4 18.9 7th
8th 0.4 4.2 9.5 4.9 0.5 0.0 19.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 5.6 7.7 3.9 0.5 0.0 19.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.2 7.3 12.6 17.1 18.8 16.7 12.2 7.1 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 12.9% 0.0    0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 16.1% 16.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.0% 10.7% 10.7% 13.4 0.1 0.0 0.9
11-7 3.0% 4.6% 4.6% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9
10-8 7.1% 2.9% 2.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.9
9-9 12.2% 3.2% 3.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 11.8
8-10 16.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 16.3
7-11 18.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 18.6
6-12 17.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 17.0
5-13 12.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.5
4-14 7.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.3
3-15 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%