Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
51 Murray St. 60.1%   12   12 - 2 5 - 0 24 - 3 17 - 1 +9.3      +5.5 44 +3.8 75 65.9 267 +14.3 27 +17.7 1
62 Belmont 43.6%   13 - 4 4 - 1 24 - 6 15 - 3 +8.3      +5.5 43 +2.8 92 73.4 72 +9.9 59 +4.0 3
145 Morehead St. 7.1%   9 - 5 4 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 5 +1.1      +0.6 161 +0.5 158 63.7 310 +4.1 110 +6.6 2
273 SIU Edwardsville 0.5%   5 - 9 1 - 2 12 - 17 8 - 10 -6.4      -4.6 301 -1.8 228 70.4 130 -6.1 269 -5.5 5
290 Tennessee Tech 0.2%   2 - 12 1 - 2 8 - 20 7 - 10 -7.6      -4.8 307 -2.8 260 71.0 117 -11.5 326 -6.8 6
308 Tennessee St. 0.1%   5 - 10 2 - 3 10 - 18 7 - 11 -8.4      -3.1 261 -5.3 321 71.4 105 -12.0 328 -9.9 8
314 Austin Peay 0.1%   2 - 9 0 - 3 8 - 18 6 - 12 -8.7      -4.4 296 -4.3 301 68.1 193 -10.1 313 -24.4 10
316 Southeast Missouri St. 0.1%   4 - 11 1 - 3 9 - 19 6 - 11 -9.3      -1.4 218 -7.9 346 77.2 23 -9.0 304 -9.0 7
324 Tennessee Martin 0.0%   4 - 11 2 - 3 9 - 19 7 - 11 -10.5      -5.0 309 -5.5 326 72.6 76 -7.3 284 -5.4 4
352 Eastern Illinois 0.0%   0 - 14 0 - 3 3 - 26 3 - 15 -15.5      -12.0 358 -3.5 288 66.1 262 -21.7 353 -19.1 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Murray St. 1.2 83.2 14.5 2.4 0.0 0.0
Belmont 1.8 29.3 59.2 11.4 0.1
Morehead St. 2.7 6.9 19.8 67.5 4.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 5.1 0.0 0.2 6.8 42.2 18.9 12.8 8.5 6.0 3.9 0.7
Tennessee Tech 5.9 0.0 0.1 2.3 23.2 23.1 18.1 14.3 10.5 6.8 1.7
Tennessee St. 6.1 0.0 1.3 18.9 21.2 19.8 16.3 12.7 7.9 1.8
Austin Peay 7.2 0.0 0.5 9.3 12.4 14.0 15.6 17.9 20.9 9.3
Southeast Missouri St. 6.8 0.0 0.9 10.2 15.0 17.0 17.9 18.3 15.2 5.4
Tennessee Martin 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 15.4 19.3 19.7 17.5 14.8 9.8 2.6
Eastern Illinois 9.2 0.0 0.6 1.9 3.0 5.4 9.3 19.5 60.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Murray St. 17 - 1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.4 10.6 23.9 35.6 25.4
Belmont 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 5.4 15.7 30.7 33.4 13.0
Morehead St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 4.8 10.1 17.4 22.0 21.5 14.2 5.9 1.5 0.1
SIU Edwardsville 8 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.5 10.3 15.8 17.7 18.2 14.1 9.0 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0
Tennessee Tech 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.4 11.0 17.1 20.2 19.1 13.8 7.4 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
Tennessee St. 7 - 11 0.3 1.6 6.4 13.0 19.6 21.9 17.7 11.2 5.7 2.1 0.5 0.1
Austin Peay 6 - 12 0.2 1.2 3.9 9.3 14.9 18.2 18.9 15.4 10.2 5.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 6 - 12 0.3 1.7 5.7 11.9 18.4 21.3 18.5 12.4 6.3 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
Tennessee Martin 7 - 11 0.4 2.5 7.8 15.8 20.3 21.4 16.6 9.6 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 3 - 15 5.4 13.6 21.7 22.5 17.2 10.5 5.6 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Murray St. 83.2% 65.8 16.2 1.2
Belmont 29.3% 13.4 14.7 1.2
Morehead St. 6.9% 2.6 3.1 1.2
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0
Tennessee St.
Austin Peay
Southeast Missouri St.
Tennessee Martin 0.0% 0.0
Eastern Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Murray St. 60.1% 51.3% 8.7% 12   0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 3.7 3.0 2.5 3.8 5.8 13.5 19.1 3.8 0.1 39.9 18.0%
Belmont 43.6% 40.6% 3.0% 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.2 7.4 21.5 6.4 0.4 0.0 56.4 5.0%
Morehead St. 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.9 1.3 0.1 92.9 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Murray St. 60.1% 4.9% 57.6% 22.7% 6.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Belmont 43.6% 2.1% 42.5% 13.4% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Morehead St. 7.1% 0.0% 7.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 88.3 11.7 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.1 0.3 91.6 8.1
2nd Round 35.8% 0.4 64.2 34.8 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 10.8% 0.1 89.2 10.7 0.0
Elite Eight 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Final Four 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0