Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#51
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#27
Pace65.9#267
Improvement+1.7#91

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#44
First Shot+4.2#58
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#81
Layup/Dunks+4.1#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#93
Freethrows-1.0#259
Improvement+1.7#78

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#75
First Shot+4.2#55
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#203
Layups/Dunks+3.1#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#155
Freethrows+1.4#84
Improvement+0.0#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 8.5% 8.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.1% 60.1% 47.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.0% 18.0% 4.6%
Average Seed 10.1 10.1 12.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 83.2% 83.3% 59.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.9% 4.9% 2.5%
First Round57.6% 57.7% 46.5%
Second Round22.7% 22.8% 8.7%
Sweet Sixteen6.8% 6.8% 3.6%
Elite Eight1.9% 1.9% 1.5%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 13 - 2
Quad 35 - 19 - 3
Quad 417 - 125 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 192   Bellarmine W 78-59 89%     1 - 0 +15.1 +4.3 +11.8
  Nov 16, 2021 202   @ Illinois St. W 77-65 79%     2 - 0 +12.8 +3.3 +9.8
  Nov 22, 2021 174   East Tennessee St. L 58-66 82%     2 - 1 -8.5 -13.9 +5.1
  Nov 23, 2021 239   Long Beach St. W 80-43 89%     3 - 1 +32.8 +5.8 +27.3
  Nov 24, 2021 180   James Madison W 74-62 83%     4 - 1 +11.3 +2.4 +9.4
  Dec 04, 2021 159   Middle Tennessee W 93-87 86%     5 - 1 +3.7 +10.6 -7.6
  Dec 10, 2021 41   @ Memphis W 74-72 36%     6 - 1 +15.1 +11.5 +3.7
  Dec 18, 2021 100   Chattanooga W 87-76 73%     7 - 1 +13.8 +10.4 +3.1
  Dec 22, 2021 8   @ Auburn L 58-71 15%     7 - 2 +7.3 -4.4 +11.5
  Dec 30, 2021 316   Southeast Missouri St. W 106-81 96%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +13.2 +10.7 -0.7
  Jan 08, 2022 273   @ SIU Edwardsville W 74-69 89%     9 - 2 2 - 0 +1.1 +7.2 -5.7
  Jan 13, 2022 308   Tennessee St. W 67-44 96%     10 - 2 3 - 0 +12.1 -9.3 +22.4
  Jan 15, 2022 62   @ Belmont W 82-60 44%     11 - 2 4 - 0 +32.8 +18.9 +15.4
  Jan 17, 2022 352   @ Eastern Illinois W 72-46 97%     12 - 2 5 - 0 +13.0 +3.9 +11.6
  Jan 20, 2022 352   Eastern Illinois W 77-50 99%    
  Jan 22, 2022 324   Tennessee Martin W 82-60 98%    
  Jan 24, 2022 290   Tennessee Tech W 79-60 97%    
  Jan 27, 2022 290   @ Tennessee Tech W 76-62 90%    
  Jan 29, 2022 145   Morehead St. W 72-61 85%    
  Feb 03, 2022 314   @ Austin Peay W 77-61 92%    
  Feb 05, 2022 273   SIU Edwardsville W 78-60 96%    
  Feb 10, 2022 308   @ Tennessee St. W 79-64 91%    
  Feb 12, 2022 145   @ Morehead St. W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 17, 2022 314   Austin Peay W 79-58 97%    
  Feb 19, 2022 324   @ Tennessee Martin W 80-63 94%    
  Feb 24, 2022 62   Belmont W 74-71 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 316   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 85-69 93%    
Projected Record 24 - 3 17 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 3.3 18.7 35.6 25.4 83.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.8 5.2 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.5 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.4 10.6 23.9 35.6 25.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 25.4    25.4
17-1 100.0% 35.6    30.6 5.0
16-2 78.4% 18.7    9.0 9.2 0.5
15-3 31.3% 3.3    0.7 2.0 0.6
14-4 5.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total 83.2% 83.2 65.8 16.2 1.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 25.4% 80.5% 61.3% 19.3% 7.4 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 3.7 3.0 2.0 2.3 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.9 49.8%
17-1 35.6% 64.4% 55.8% 8.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.7 8.5 8.1 0.7 12.7 19.5%
16-2 23.9% 48.1% 45.0% 3.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 7.1 1.5 0.0 12.4 5.6%
15-3 10.6% 37.2% 36.8% 0.4% 12.2 0.3 2.6 1.0 0.0 6.6 0.7%
14-4 3.4% 29.1% 29.1% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 2.4
13-5 0.9% 26.4% 26.4% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
12-6 0.2% 21.0% 21.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 60.1% 51.3% 8.7% 10.1 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 3.7 3.0 2.5 3.8 5.8 13.5 19.1 3.8 0.1 39.9 18.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.5% 100.0% 6.6 0.2 1.5 10.2 18.6 23.5 18.0 10.3 8.6 5.1 3.0 0.9 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.5% 51.0% 10.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 5.0 10.3 11.4 16.3 5.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3% 42.0% 10.7 0.3 1.4 5.0 5.8 20.6 8.7 0.2