Austin Peay
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#314
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#313
Pace68.1#193
Improvement-3.6#319

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#296
First Shot-4.2#301
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#206
Layup/Dunks-5.8#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#142
Freethrows-1.4#286
Improvement-3.7#344

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#301
First Shot-1.7#239
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#341
Layups/Dunks-2.8#277
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#40
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#105
Freethrows-2.9#328
Improvement+0.1#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 1.1% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 7.9% 13.5% 3.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 17.5% 9.5% 24.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 45.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 30 - 42 - 10
Quad 46 - 98 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 133   @ Southern Illinois L 55-73 11%     0 - 1 -13.4 -8.2 -7.5
  Nov 16, 2021 261   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 60-65 28%     0 - 2 -7.8 -11.3 +3.2
  Nov 20, 2021 72   @ Dayton W 87-81 5%     1 - 2 +16.0 +15.7 +0.0
  Nov 26, 2021 248   @ Howard W 69-67 26%     2 - 2 -0.1 -8.5 +8.3
  Nov 29, 2021 57   @ TCU L 51-68 4%     2 - 3 -5.9 -6.3 -2.1
  Dec 11, 2021 313   @ North Florida L 84-91 40%     2 - 4 -13.2 +8.6 -21.9
  Dec 14, 2021 191   @ South Florida L 51-60 18%     2 - 5 -7.8 -14.7 +6.6
  Dec 18, 2021 85   @ Vanderbilt L 51-77 6%     2 - 6 -16.8 -10.2 -9.4
  Dec 30, 2021 324   Tennessee Martin L 62-65 66%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -16.0 -21.2 +5.4
  Jan 01, 2022 316   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 79-98 43%     2 - 8 0 - 2 -25.8 -8.6 -15.2
  Jan 08, 2022 145   Morehead St. L 55-66 24%     2 - 9 0 - 3 -12.4 -14.8 +1.6
  Jan 20, 2022 324   @ Tennessee Martin L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 22, 2022 308   @ Tennessee St. L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 27, 2022 62   Belmont L 66-81 9%    
  Jan 29, 2022 290   @ Tennessee Tech L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 31, 2022 273   SIU Edwardsville W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 03, 2022 51   Murray St. L 61-77 8%    
  Feb 05, 2022 145   @ Morehead St. L 61-73 11%    
  Feb 07, 2022 62   @ Belmont L 63-83 4%    
  Feb 10, 2022 316   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-75 63%    
  Feb 12, 2022 308   Tennessee St. W 73-71 60%    
  Feb 14, 2022 352   Eastern Illinois W 69-60 82%    
  Feb 17, 2022 51   @ Murray St. L 58-79 3%    
  Feb 19, 2022 290   Tennessee Tech W 70-69 57%    
  Feb 24, 2022 273   @ SIU Edwardsville L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 26, 2022 352   @ Eastern Illinois W 66-62 64%    
Projected Record 8 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.5 3.0 3.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.7 5.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.2 4.7 7.5 1.6 0.0 14.0 6th
7th 0.2 3.6 9.2 2.5 0.1 15.6 7th
8th 0.3 3.7 9.7 4.2 0.2 0.0 17.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 5.4 9.7 4.6 0.3 0.0 20.9 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 3.0 3.6 1.4 0.1 9.3 10th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.9 9.3 14.9 18.2 18.9 15.4 10.2 5.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.0
9-9 5.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.3
8-10 10.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.1
7-11 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.4
6-12 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.9
5-13 18.2% 18.2
4-14 14.9% 14.9
3-15 9.3% 9.3
2-16 3.9% 3.9
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%