Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#308
Expected Predictive Rating-12.0#328
Pace71.4#105
Improvement+3.9#38

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#261
First Shot-4.3#304
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#86
Layup/Dunks-3.9#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#276
Freethrows-0.7#242
Improvement+2.9#36

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#321
First Shot-5.9#335
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#132
Layups/Dunks+1.3#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#262
Freethrows-4.8#354
Improvement+1.0#122
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.8% 3.5% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 19.6% 31.7% 10.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 1.7% 7.4%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Away) - 41.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 410 - 1110 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 334   @ Alabama A&M L 73-82 52%     0 - 1 -17.9 -1.5 -16.1
  Nov 13, 2021 231   Norfolk St. L 59-66 32%     0 - 2 -10.6 -20.2 +10.5
  Nov 21, 2021 234   @ South Dakota L 66-83 25%     0 - 3 -18.5 -11.0 -7.0
  Nov 23, 2021 140   @ Nebraska L 73-79 13%     0 - 4 -2.0 +0.8 -2.7
  Nov 28, 2021 240   Southern L 80-82 44%     0 - 5 -8.8 +0.4 -9.0
  Dec 04, 2021 350   @ Chicago St. L 49-59 64%     0 - 6 -22.0 -23.3 +0.3
  Dec 10, 2021 355   IUPUI W 70-44 86%     1 - 6 +6.0 +1.1 +9.3
  Dec 12, 2021 280   @ Lipscomb W 73-65 35%     2 - 6 +3.6 -10.9 +13.9
  Dec 16, 2021 351   @ Charleston Southern W 78-75 65%     3 - 6 -9.5 -0.8 -8.7
  Dec 18, 2021 346   @ South Carolina St. L 88-90 OT 59%     3 - 7 -12.8 -1.4 -11.2
  Jan 06, 2022 324   Tennessee Martin L 78-94 67%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -29.0 -1.9 -27.0
  Jan 08, 2022 316   Southeast Missouri St. W 95-84 63%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -0.8 +7.8 -9.2
  Jan 13, 2022 51   @ Murray St. L 44-67 4%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -11.2 -21.7 +9.4
  Jan 15, 2022 145   Morehead St. L 64-71 25%     4 - 10 1 - 3 -8.4 -6.1 -2.7
  Jan 17, 2022 290   Tennessee Tech W 80-64 57%     5 - 10 2 - 3 +5.9 +4.5 +1.6
  Jan 20, 2022 316   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 79-81 42%    
  Jan 22, 2022 314   Austin Peay W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 24, 2022 145   @ Morehead St. L 64-76 12%    
  Jan 27, 2022 273   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 29, 2022 352   @ Eastern Illinois W 69-64 65%    
  Feb 03, 2022 62   Belmont L 69-83 10%    
  Feb 05, 2022 324   @ Tennessee Martin L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 10, 2022 51   Murray St. L 64-79 9%    
  Feb 12, 2022 314   @ Austin Peay L 71-73 40%    
  Feb 17, 2022 273   SIU Edwardsville W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 19, 2022 352   Eastern Illinois W 72-62 83%    
  Feb 24, 2022 290   @ Tennessee Tech L 71-74 36%    
  Feb 26, 2022 62   @ Belmont L 67-86 4%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.3 3rd
4th 0.7 4.3 7.4 4.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 18.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 6.7 9.7 3.5 0.5 0.0 21.2 5th
6th 0.2 5.2 10.8 3.5 0.2 19.8 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 9.6 3.5 0.1 0.0 16.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 7.1 3.9 0.2 12.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.1 2.7 0.3 7.9 9th
10th 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.8 10th
Total 0.3 1.6 6.4 13.0 19.6 21.9 17.7 11.2 5.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 2.1% 2.1
10-8 5.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.6
9-9 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.2
8-10 17.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.6
7-11 21.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.9
6-12 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.6
5-13 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.0
4-14 6.4% 6.4
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%