Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#145
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#110
Pace63.7#310
Improvement-0.7#205

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#161
First Shot+2.8#95
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#320
Layup/Dunks+0.0#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#62
Freethrows-1.1#266
Improvement-1.9#287

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#158
First Shot-0.4#178
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#108
Layups/Dunks-0.6#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#338
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#194
Freethrows+3.3#9
Improvement+1.2#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 10.2% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 13.9
.500 or above 98.8% 99.9% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 100.0% 98.8%
Conference Champion 6.9% 14.6% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.1% 10.2% 5.5%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 33.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 21 - 8
Quad 31 - 12 - 9
Quad 417 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 8   @ Auburn L 54-77 5%     0 - 1 -2.7 -8.2 +5.2
  Nov 12, 2021 50   @ UAB L 71-85 15%     0 - 2 -2.0 +3.2 -5.2
  Nov 21, 2021 48   @ Mississippi St. L 46-66 14%     0 - 3 -7.6 -16.1 +5.6
  Nov 26, 2021 194   @ Arkansas St. W 75-51 50%     1 - 3 +25.1 +5.4 +20.8
  Nov 27, 2021 265   UMKC W 70-62 74%     2 - 3 +2.5 +8.0 -4.4
  Dec 01, 2021 233   Georgia Southern W 59-51 76%     3 - 3 +1.6 -3.2 +6.4
  Dec 06, 2021 299   Presbyterian W 71-66 86%     4 - 3 -5.5 +2.1 -7.1
  Dec 11, 2021 174   @ East Tennessee St. L 75-82 46%     4 - 4 -4.9 +2.0 -7.0
  Dec 15, 2021 19   @ Xavier L 63-86 9%     4 - 5 -6.7 -2.6 -3.9
  Dec 21, 2021 355   @ IUPUI W 80-52 92%     5 - 5 +13.0 +14.0 +3.3
  Dec 29, 2021 352   Eastern Illinois W 63-50 95%     6 - 5 1 - 0 -5.0 -3.3 +0.7
  Jan 08, 2022 314   @ Austin Peay W 66-55 76%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +4.8 -5.2 +10.8
  Jan 12, 2022 324   Tennessee Martin W 76-62 90%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +1.0 -6.9 +7.3
  Jan 15, 2022 308   @ Tennessee St. W 71-64 75%     9 - 5 4 - 0 +1.1 -2.0 +3.5
  Jan 20, 2022 62   Belmont L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 22, 2022 273   SIU Edwardsville W 72-62 84%    
  Jan 24, 2022 308   Tennessee St. W 76-64 88%    
  Jan 27, 2022 316   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 29, 2022 51   @ Murray St. L 61-72 15%    
  Jan 31, 2022 290   @ Tennessee Tech W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 03, 2022 290   Tennessee Tech W 73-62 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 314   Austin Peay W 73-61 89%    
  Feb 10, 2022 62   @ Belmont L 66-76 17%    
  Feb 12, 2022 51   Murray St. L 64-70 31%    
  Feb 16, 2022 324   @ Tennessee Martin W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 19, 2022 316   Southeast Missouri St. W 81-68 89%    
  Feb 24, 2022 352   @ Eastern Illinois W 69-55 89%    
  Feb 26, 2022 273   @ SIU Edwardsville W 69-64 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.8 1.5 0.1 6.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 6.1 10.0 2.1 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.9 8.7 16.7 20.6 15.3 2.8 67.5 3rd
4th 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 4.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 4.8 10.1 17.4 22.0 21.5 14.2 5.9 1.5 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.2 0.3
16-2 64.6% 3.8    1.1 2.2 0.5
15-3 9.6% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.6
14-4 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 2.6 3.1 1.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 44.4% 44.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.5% 34.1% 34.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.0
16-2 5.9% 21.8% 21.8% 13.1 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.6
15-3 14.2% 10.0% 10.0% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 12.8
14-4 21.5% 7.5% 7.5% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 19.9
13-5 22.0% 5.2% 5.2% 14.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 20.9
12-6 17.4% 4.0% 4.0% 14.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 16.7
11-7 10.1% 2.8% 2.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.8
10-8 4.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.7
9-9 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 1.7
8-10 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.9 1.3 0.1 92.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 11.8 12.5 8.3 66.7 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%