Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.5#324
Expected Predictive Rating-7.3#284
Pace72.6#76
Improvement+0.4#163

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#309
First Shot-5.4#318
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#147
Layup/Dunks+1.5#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#254
Freethrows-3.8#353
Improvement-0.6#221

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#326
First Shot-1.4#225
After Offensive Rebounds-4.1#357
Layups/Dunks+0.6#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#247
Freethrows-1.2#275
Improvement+1.1#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 15.3% 22.8% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 2.8% 11.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 54.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 30 - 60 - 13
Quad 49 - 79 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 15   @ Tennessee L 62-90 1%     0 - 1 -10.9 -0.2 -10.4
  Nov 19, 2021 151   @ Florida Atlantic L 67-75 11%     0 - 2 -4.8 -5.5 +0.7
  Nov 20, 2021 189   Troy L 67-80 19%     0 - 3 -14.3 -8.3 -5.2
  Nov 21, 2021 347   North Dakota W 77-72 63%     1 - 3 -8.9 -11.0 +1.8
  Nov 27, 2021 112   @ Western Kentucky L 66-81 6%     1 - 4 -8.3 -4.6 -3.5
  Dec 01, 2021 159   @ Middle Tennessee L 61-73 11%     1 - 5 -9.2 -6.4 -3.1
  Dec 04, 2021 213   @ Western Illinois L 64-81 16%     1 - 6 -16.8 -9.1 -7.9
  Dec 11, 2021 159   Middle Tennessee L 75-84 22%     1 - 7 -11.3 +0.4 -11.3
  Dec 14, 2021 249   UNC Asheville W 79-68 37%     2 - 7 +3.8 -0.5 +4.1
  Dec 19, 2021 106   @ Drake L 54-80 6%     2 - 8 -19.0 -16.7 -2.1
  Dec 30, 2021 314   @ Austin Peay W 65-62 34%     3 - 8 1 - 0 -3.2 -14.7 +11.3
  Jan 06, 2022 308   @ Tennessee St. W 94-78 33%     4 - 8 2 - 0 +10.1 +16.6 -6.6
  Jan 08, 2022 62   Belmont L 55-81 7%     4 - 9 2 - 1 -20.2 -16.4 -3.7
  Jan 12, 2022 145   @ Morehead St. L 62-76 10%     4 - 10 2 - 2 -10.4 -11.9 +2.1
  Jan 15, 2022 290   Tennessee Tech L 70-76 49%     4 - 11 2 - 3 -16.1 -11.4 -4.4
  Jan 20, 2022 314   Austin Peay W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 22, 2022 51   @ Murray St. L 60-82 2%    
  Jan 24, 2022 273   SIU Edwardsville L 71-73 46%    
  Jan 27, 2022 352   Eastern Illinois W 70-62 77%    
  Jan 29, 2022 62   @ Belmont L 65-86 2%    
  Feb 03, 2022 316   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-79 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 308   Tennessee St. W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 10, 2022 273   @ SIU Edwardsville L 68-75 26%    
  Feb 12, 2022 352   @ Eastern Illinois W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 16, 2022 145   Morehead St. L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 19, 2022 51   Murray St. L 63-80 6%    
  Feb 24, 2022 316   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 78-82 35%    
  Feb 26, 2022 290   @ Tennessee Tech L 70-75 30%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.7 4.1 6.1 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 15.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 6.2 9.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 19.3 5th
6th 0.2 5.3 10.6 3.2 0.3 0.0 19.7 6th
7th 0.1 3.7 9.9 3.6 0.2 17.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 8.4 4.2 0.2 14.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.9 3.4 0.3 9.8 9th
10th 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.6 10th
Total 0.4 2.5 7.8 15.8 20.3 21.4 16.6 9.6 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.3% 1.3
10-8 4.1% 4.1
9-9 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
8-10 16.6% 16.6
7-11 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.4
6-12 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.3
5-13 15.8% 15.8
4-14 7.8% 7.8
3-15 2.5% 2.5
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%