Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#316
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#304
Pace77.2#23
Improvement-2.5#284

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#218
First Shot+0.9#147
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#324
Layup/Dunks-4.3#320
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#66
Freethrows+2.1#44
Improvement-1.1#248

Defense
Total Defense-7.9#346
First Shot-6.0#337
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#317
Layups/Dunks-2.0#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#158
Freethrows-4.8#353
Improvement-1.3#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 1.1% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.8% 14.5% 3.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.4% 6.4% 18.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 58.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 30 - 51 - 9
Quad 48 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 77   @ Missouri St. W 99-94 5%     1 - 0 +14.8 +19.3 -5.0
  Nov 13, 2021 250   Youngstown St. L 79-97 42%     1 - 1 -25.2 -4.0 -20.0
  Nov 19, 2021 194   Arkansas St. L 60-72 30%     1 - 2 -15.9 -10.8 -6.0
  Nov 26, 2021 353   @ Incarnate Word W 79-76 64%     2 - 2 -10.1 -1.4 -8.7
  Nov 27, 2021 245   Portland L 68-74 32%     2 - 3 -10.6 -9.9 -0.5
  Nov 28, 2021 166   Montana St. L 68-75 19%     2 - 4 -7.1 -10.6 +4.2
  Dec 08, 2021 270   Evansville W 75-73 47%     3 - 4 -6.5 +0.5 -7.0
  Dec 11, 2021 261   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 65-78 27%     3 - 5 -15.8 -9.5 -6.3
  Dec 15, 2021 133   @ Southern Illinois L 55-80 10%     3 - 6 -20.4 -9.7 -13.1
  Dec 18, 2021 253   @ Pepperdine L 77-83 25%     3 - 7 -8.4 -2.5 -5.3
  Dec 21, 2021 236   @ California Baptist L 68-84 23%     3 - 8 -17.5 -12.0 -4.2
  Dec 30, 2021 51   @ Murray St. L 81-106 4%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -13.2 +3.1 -13.1
  Jan 01, 2022 314   Austin Peay W 98-79 57%     4 - 9 1 - 1 +7.8 +9.5 -3.7
  Jan 06, 2022 62   @ Belmont L 62-102 4%     4 - 10 1 - 2 -29.2 -7.2 -21.7
  Jan 08, 2022 308   @ Tennessee St. L 84-95 37%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -16.9 +2.5 -18.8
  Jan 20, 2022 308   Tennessee St. W 81-79 58%    
  Jan 22, 2022 352   @ Eastern Illinois W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 27, 2022 145   Morehead St. L 70-78 24%    
  Jan 29, 2022 273   SIU Edwardsville L 76-77 51%    
  Feb 03, 2022 324   @ Tennessee Martin L 79-80 43%    
  Feb 05, 2022 352   Eastern Illinois W 76-67 80%    
  Feb 07, 2022 273   @ SIU Edwardsville L 74-79 30%    
  Feb 10, 2022 314   @ Austin Peay L 75-78 37%    
  Feb 12, 2022 62   Belmont L 74-89 9%    
  Feb 17, 2022 290   @ Tennessee Tech L 76-80 33%    
  Feb 19, 2022 145   @ Morehead St. L 68-81 11%    
  Feb 24, 2022 324   Tennessee Martin W 82-78 65%    
  Feb 26, 2022 51   Murray St. L 69-85 7%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.6 3.1 4.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.4 6.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.2 5.1 9.2 2.4 0.1 0.0 17.0 6th
7th 0.1 4.0 10.6 3.1 0.1 17.9 7th
8th 0.2 3.2 10.1 4.6 0.2 18.3 8th
9th 0.3 3.1 7.4 4.1 0.4 0.0 15.2 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 2.4 1.2 0.1 5.4 10th
Total 0.3 1.7 5.7 11.9 18.4 21.3 18.5 12.4 6.3 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.2
11-7 0.8% 0.8
10-8 2.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.5
9-9 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
8-10 12.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.4
7-11 18.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.4
6-12 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.3
5-13 18.4% 18.4
4-14 11.9% 11.9
3-15 5.7% 5.7
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%