Belmont
Ohio Valley
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#62
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#59
Pace73.4#72
Improvement-0.5#196

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#43
First Shot+6.2#27
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#243
Layup/Dunks+8.0#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#54
Freethrows-1.7#298
Improvement-1.4#270

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#92
First Shot+1.9#114
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#95
Layups/Dunks+1.6#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#233
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#240
Freethrows+2.3#42
Improvement+1.0#124
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 2.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.6% 47.7% 35.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.0% 6.9% 1.7%
Average Seed 11.3 11.0 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 29.3% 36.8% 14.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.1% 2.7% 1.0%
First Round42.5% 46.3% 35.0%
Second Round13.4% 15.3% 9.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.9% 4.3% 2.9%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.0% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 66.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 22 - 23 - 5
Quad 36 - 19 - 6
Quad 417 - 126 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 84   @ Ohio L 80-92 46%     0 - 1 -2.7 +7.0 -9.0
  Nov 13, 2021 270   Evansville W 81-43 93%     1 - 1 +29.5 +8.4 +22.5
  Nov 15, 2021 102   Furman W 95-89 OT 72%     2 - 1 +8.4 +7.2 +0.3
  Nov 19, 2021 214   @ Kennesaw St. W 97-78 78%     3 - 1 +19.1 +19.8 -1.6
  Nov 22, 2021 13   @ LSU L 53-83 16%     3 - 2 -10.9 -7.8 -1.7
  Nov 25, 2021 106   Drake W 74-69 64%     4 - 2 +9.5 +0.1 +9.2
  Nov 26, 2021 90   Iona W 72-65 57%     5 - 2 +13.4 +1.0 +12.3
  Nov 28, 2021 72   Dayton L 61-63 53%     5 - 3 +5.5 +0.1 +5.2
  Dec 02, 2021 280   Lipscomb W 94-65 94%     6 - 3 +19.6 +10.0 +8.7
  Dec 05, 2021 237   @ Samford W 85-73 82%     7 - 3 +10.4 +4.7 +5.1
  Dec 07, 2021 71   @ Saint Louis W 64-59 43%     8 - 3 +15.2 -0.6 +16.1
  Dec 15, 2021 100   Chattanooga W 76-68 70%     9 - 3 +10.8 +4.4 +6.7
  Jan 06, 2022 316   Southeast Missouri St. W 102-62 96%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +28.2 +19.3 +8.6
  Jan 08, 2022 324   @ Tennessee Martin W 81-55 93%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +18.0 +3.7 +14.3
  Jan 13, 2022 290   Tennessee Tech W 92-77 95%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +4.9 +8.1 -4.4
  Jan 15, 2022 51   Murray St. L 60-82 56%     12 - 4 3 - 1 -15.2 -6.1 -10.6
  Jan 17, 2022 273   @ SIU Edwardsville W 80-64 87%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +12.1 +2.3 +8.9
  Jan 20, 2022 145   @ Morehead St. W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 24, 2022 352   @ Eastern Illinois W 78-57 97%    
  Jan 27, 2022 314   @ Austin Peay W 81-66 91%    
  Jan 29, 2022 324   Tennessee Martin W 86-65 98%    
  Feb 03, 2022 308   @ Tennessee St. W 83-69 90%    
  Feb 05, 2022 290   @ Tennessee Tech W 80-67 88%    
  Feb 07, 2022 314   Austin Peay W 83-63 96%    
  Feb 10, 2022 145   Morehead St. W 76-66 83%    
  Feb 12, 2022 316   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 89-74 91%    
  Feb 17, 2022 352   Eastern Illinois W 81-55 99%    
  Feb 19, 2022 273   SIU Edwardsville W 82-65 95%    
  Feb 24, 2022 51   @ Murray St. L 71-74 36%    
  Feb 26, 2022 308   Tennessee St. W 86-67 96%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 3.1 13.0 13.0 29.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 10.6 26.0 20.4 59.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.4 4.8 1.7 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 5.4 15.7 30.7 33.4 13.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 13.0    8.4 4.7
16-2 38.9% 13.0    4.5 8.0 0.5
15-3 10.0% 3.1    0.6 1.9 0.6
14-4 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.3% 29.3 13.4 14.7 1.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 13.0% 69.5% 56.1% 13.3% 8.7 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.0 4.0 30.4%
16-2 33.4% 49.4% 46.3% 3.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.9 9.4 1.3 0.0 16.9 5.7%
15-3 30.7% 37.6% 37.0% 0.6% 12.1 0.0 1.0 8.0 2.5 0.1 19.2 1.0%
14-4 15.7% 30.5% 30.5% 0.1% 12.4 0.1 2.8 1.8 0.2 10.9 0.1%
13-5 5.4% 24.4% 24.4% 12.7 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.1
12-6 1.5% 22.1% 22.1% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.2
11-7 0.3% 15.5% 15.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 43.6% 40.6% 3.0% 11.3 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.2 7.4 21.5 6.4 0.4 0.0 56.4 5.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.3% 100.0% 8.2 1.3 7.1 13.5 15.9 16.0 18.6 14.1 9.4 4.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.9% 33.2% 10.9 0.3 2.5 7.1 13.6 9.5 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 12.7% 11.1 2.0 6.9 3.8