Patriot League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
129 Colgate 39.9%   16   6 - 10 3 - 1 16 - 13 13 - 4 +2.5      +3.6 80 -1.1 207 68.4 181 -3.1 220 +2.3 1
148 Navy 28.9%   11 - 6 5 - 2 19 - 9 13 - 5 +0.9      -1.4 216 +2.2 103 65.1 291 +3.5 121 -0.5 3
198 Boston University 14.8%   11 - 8 3 - 4 19 - 11 11 - 7 -1.6      +0.2 169 -1.7 226 62.4 324 -1.6 194 -6.5 6
259 Loyola Maryland 6.1%   10 - 7 5 - 2 16 - 12 11 - 7 -5.1      -3.8 278 -1.3 211 67.6 206 -3.3 226 -1.3 5
266 Army 5.6%   9 - 8 5 - 2 15 - 13 11 - 7 -5.5      -3.3 264 -2.2 239 71.9 91 -3.3 225 -0.9 4
294 Lehigh 2.4%   6 - 12 5 - 2 11 - 18 10 - 8 -7.8      -4.4 292 -3.4 284 72.1 88 -9.6 308 +0.4 2
307 Lafayette 1.6%   3 - 11 1 - 3 8 - 19 6 - 11 -8.3      -3.3 262 -5.1 319 67.2 224 -11.3 324 -12.0 8
330 American 0.3%   5 - 11 1 - 3 9 - 20 5 - 12 -11.2      -5.1 314 -6.1 332 66.4 252 -8.7 299 -14.7 9
331 Bucknell 0.3%   3 - 16 0 - 7 7 - 23 4 - 14 -11.2      -3.8 276 -7.4 345 71.5 99 -13.0 334 -20.9 10
344 Holy Cross 0.1%   1 - 13 1 - 3 4 - 21 4 - 11 -13.1      -5.7 323 -7.4 344 68.6 180 -18.1 350 -11.4 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 1.8 54.1 26.3 10.3 5.2 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
Navy 1.8 49.7 31.4 10.8 4.9 2.4 0.8 0.0 0.0
Boston University 3.8 5.5 14.3 25.7 22.8 17.3 11.6 2.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 3.8 8.4 13.8 21.4 21.8 19.2 12.8 2.2 0.3 0.0
Army 3.9 7.3 13.3 21.7 20.8 19.8 14.6 2.2 0.3
Lehigh 4.5 3.3 7.8 16.4 18.6 22.3 25.3 5.5 0.7 0.1
Lafayette 7.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 5.1 11.9 42.9 20.4 11.3 4.4
American 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.4 4.2 25.3 30.0 24.7 13.5
Bucknell 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 15.1 25.5 27.8 29.5
Holy Cross 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 12.2 26.9 29.7 28.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.8 8.5 15.7 22.0 23.6 17.8 6.8
Navy 13 - 5 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.4 8.5 16.7 24.8 25.0 16.0 4.5
Boston University 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.3 13.2 21.2 24.8 19.5 9.8 2.2
Loyola Maryland 11 - 7 0.1 0.6 2.8 7.7 14.8 20.7 21.5 17.3 9.8 3.8 0.9 0.1
Army 11 - 7 0.1 0.7 2.8 8.2 15.4 21.1 21.7 16.8 9.1 3.4 0.7 0.1
Lehigh 10 - 8 0.3 1.6 6.3 13.8 20.6 22.3 17.9 10.5 4.9 1.7 0.2 0.0
Lafayette 6 - 12 0.3 2.0 6.0 11.9 18.0 20.0 18.0 12.4 6.7 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0
American 5 - 13 1.7 7.5 15.3 21.4 21.0 16.4 10.0 4.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 4 - 14 1.0 5.9 13.3 21.1 23.6 18.1 10.3 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 4 - 14 4.9 14.4 22.8 23.4 18.0 10.1 4.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 54.1% 35.9 14.8 2.9 0.5 0.0
Navy 49.7% 31.6 14.7 2.8 0.5 0.0
Boston University 5.5% 1.5 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.0
Loyola Maryland 8.4% 3.4 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.0
Army 7.3% 2.9 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0
Lehigh 3.3% 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Lafayette 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
American 0.0% 0.0
Bucknell
Holy Cross


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 39.9% 39.9% 0.0% 16   0.2 2.8 9.5 16.6 10.8 60.1 0.0%
Navy 28.9% 28.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 4.7 12.2 9.9 1.5 71.1 0.0%
Boston University 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 5.8 7.6 85.2 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.9 94.0 0.0%
Army 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.8 94.4 0.0%
Lehigh 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 2.4 97.6 0.0%
Lafayette 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 98.4 0.0%
American 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Bucknell 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 39.9% 3.5% 38.7% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 28.9% 0.1% 28.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 14.8% 2.9% 13.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 6.1% 3.0% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 5.6% 3.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 2.4% 2.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 1.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 91.5% 0.9 8.5 91.5
2nd Round 5.3% 0.1 94.7 5.3
Sweet Sixteen 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0