Lafayette
Patriot League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#307
Expected Predictive Rating-11.3#324
Pace67.2#224
Improvement+0.1#179

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#262
First Shot+0.5#158
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#351
Layup/Dunks-2.0#256
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#264
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#11
Freethrows-3.1#342
Improvement+0.4#154

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#319
First Shot-5.9#336
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#104
Layups/Dunks-2.0#253
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#314
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#249
Freethrows-0.2#212
Improvement-0.3#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.9% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 3.6% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 11.3% 29.5% 9.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.2% 2.8% 10.9%
First Four1.5% 2.5% 1.4%
First Round0.7% 1.4% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Away) - 9.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 20 - 11 - 3
Quad 31 - 72 - 10
Quad 47 - 109 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 61   @ Syracuse L 63-97 5%     0 - 1 -23.1 -10.9 -11.2
  Nov 12, 2021 229   Cornell L 85-90 41%     0 - 2 -10.9 -0.7 -9.8
  Nov 16, 2021 211   @ Penn L 57-85 21%     0 - 3 -27.8 -15.9 -12.5
  Nov 19, 2021 10   @ Duke L 55-88 1%     0 - 4 -13.4 -11.3 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2021 64   @ Rutgers W 53-51 5%     1 - 4 +12.7 -8.5 +21.3
  Nov 29, 2021 337   @ Columbia W 73-50 53%     2 - 4 +13.8 -1.6 +16.6
  Dec 02, 2021 284   Sacred Heart L 67-74 55%     2 - 5 -16.7 -9.6 -7.4
  Dec 05, 2021 305   NJIT L 86-90 2OT 59%     2 - 6 -14.8 -2.6 -11.6
  Dec 08, 2021 146   @ Delaware L 58-68 14%     2 - 7 -6.5 -9.1 +1.6
  Dec 11, 2021 144   Princeton L 73-84 25%     2 - 8 -12.4 -0.8 -12.1
  Jan 07, 2022 344   @ Holy Cross L 74-79 59%     2 - 9 0 - 1 -15.5 -6.2 -9.2
  Jan 10, 2022 148   Navy L 55-69 26%     2 - 10 0 - 2 -15.7 -8.1 -9.7
  Jan 13, 2022 259   @ Loyola Maryland L 60-74 29%     2 - 11 0 - 3 -16.6 -7.5 -10.4
  Jan 16, 2022 266   Army W 68-54 49%     3 - 11 1 - 3 +6.0 -1.9 +9.1
  Jan 22, 2022 129   @ Colgate L 66-79 9%    
  Jan 24, 2022 330   @ American W 70-69 49%    
  Jan 26, 2022 198   Boston University L 66-70 35%    
  Jan 29, 2022 266   @ Army L 68-73 29%    
  Jan 31, 2022 129   Colgate L 68-76 23%    
  Feb 02, 2022 330   American W 72-67 70%    
  Feb 05, 2022 331   Bucknell W 76-71 71%    
  Feb 07, 2022 148   @ Navy L 60-72 13%    
  Feb 12, 2022 294   @ Lehigh L 70-73 37%    
  Feb 16, 2022 259   Loyola Maryland L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 331   @ Bucknell W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 23, 2022 198   @ Boston University L 63-72 18%    
  Feb 26, 2022 294   Lehigh W 72-70 59%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 6 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.3 2.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.6 1.1 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.8 2.7 0.2 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 7.2 14.6 13.9 5.3 0.6 0.0 42.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.0 8.8 4.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 20.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 4.4 10th
Total 0.3 2.0 6.0 11.9 18.0 20.0 18.0 12.4 6.7 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 11.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.3% 7.9% 7.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.1% 5.5% 5.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0
10-8 3.1% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.2 2.9
9-9 6.7% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.3 6.5
8-10 12.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 12.0
7-11 18.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 17.8
6-12 20.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 19.8
5-13 18.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 17.9
4-14 11.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.9
3-15 6.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.0
2-16 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%