Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.1#344
Expected Predictive Rating-18.1#350
Pace68.6#180
Improvement+3.2#53

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#323
First Shot-6.6#334
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#111
Layup/Dunks-0.6#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#316
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement+1.9#74

Defense
Total Defense-7.4#344
First Shot-5.7#331
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#308
Layups/Dunks-7.6#354
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#187
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#77
Freethrows-0.8#252
Improvement+1.3#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 1.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.9% 29.4% 66.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 30 - 80 - 8
Quad 44 - 144 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 138   @ Boston College L 55-85 6%     0 - 1 -25.9 -15.0 -11.6
  Nov 15, 2021 241   @ Quinnipiac L 68-76 15%     0 - 2 -9.9 -10.9 +1.5
  Nov 20, 2021 244   Air Force L 53-72 21%     0 - 3 -23.5 -15.5 -9.5
  Nov 21, 2021 227   Bryant L 62-78 18%     0 - 4 -19.2 -13.9 -5.2
  Nov 27, 2021 230   New Hampshire L 55-70 25%     0 - 5 -21.0 -15.4 -7.5
  Dec 01, 2021 343   @ Central Connecticut St. L 67-73 40%     0 - 6 -16.4 -4.3 -12.7
  Dec 04, 2021 226   @ La Salle L 65-84 13%     0 - 7 -19.6 -6.0 -13.9
  Dec 08, 2021 219   @ Fairfield L 59-74 12%     0 - 8 -15.2 -4.6 -12.7
  Dec 11, 2021 246   Siena L 59-72 28%     0 - 9 -20.1 -11.0 -9.9
  Dec 19, 2021 179   @ Harvard L 54-62 9%     0 - 10 -6.2 -12.3 +5.2
  Jan 01, 2022 148   Navy L 56-70 14%     0 - 11 0 - 1 -15.7 -11.3 -5.5
  Jan 04, 2022 259   @ Loyola Maryland L 70-79 16%     0 - 12 0 - 2 -11.6 -3.7 -7.8
  Jan 07, 2022 307   Lafayette W 79-74 41%     1 - 12 1 - 2 -5.9 -1.5 -4.4
  Jan 10, 2022 294   @ Lehigh L 69-77 23%     1 - 13 1 - 3 -13.3 -8.2 -4.9
  Jan 22, 2022 331   Bucknell W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 26, 2022 330   @ American L 68-72 32%    
  Jan 29, 2022 294   Lehigh L 70-73 42%    
  Jan 31, 2022 198   @ Boston University L 61-75 9%    
  Feb 05, 2022 266   @ Army L 67-77 17%    
  Feb 09, 2022 259   Loyola Maryland L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 12, 2022 331   @ Bucknell L 72-76 33%    
  Feb 16, 2022 198   Boston University L 64-73 21%    
  Feb 19, 2022 148   @ Navy L 59-75 6%    
  Feb 23, 2022 129   Colgate L 66-79 13%    
  Feb 26, 2022 266   Army L 69-74 34%    
Projected Record 4 - 21 4 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 2.0 8.8 10.5 4.8 0.7 0.1 26.9 8th
9th 0.0 2.6 11.1 11.4 3.9 0.6 29.7 9th
10th 4.9 11.8 9.6 2.4 0.2 28.9 10th
Total 4.9 14.4 22.8 23.4 18.0 10.1 4.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.5
7-11 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.4
6-12 10.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.0
5-13 18.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.0
4-14 23.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.4
3-15 22.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.8
2-16 14.4% 14.4
1-17 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.9
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.8%