American
Patriot League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.2#330
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#299
Pace66.4#252
Improvement-0.8#211

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#314
First Shot-3.2#275
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#312
Layup/Dunks+3.8#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#318
Freethrows-3.2#345
Improvement-2.3#308

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#332
First Shot-6.2#340
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#162
Layups/Dunks-7.4#351
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#147
Freethrows+0.6#143
Improvement+1.5#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.4% 6.6% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.1% 11.8% 29.7%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 19.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 81 - 10
Quad 49 - 119 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 177   Marist W 77-73 OT 22%     1 - 0 +0.9 -3.6 +4.1
  Nov 12, 2021 340   @ William & Mary W 74-62 44%     2 - 0 +2.3 -7.4 +8.9
  Nov 16, 2021 155   @ Georgetown L 57-79 10%     2 - 1 -19.0 -19.6 +2.0
  Nov 19, 2021 187   @ Longwood L 42-82 12%     2 - 2 -38.5 -24.5 -18.8
  Nov 20, 2021 312   Western Carolina L 79-80 40%     2 - 3 -9.7 +2.0 -11.8
  Nov 23, 2021 254   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 67-98 20%     2 - 4 -33.4 -5.4 -28.8
  Nov 28, 2021 190   @ Duquesne L 79-88 13%     2 - 5 -7.8 +4.9 -12.5
  Dec 01, 2021 224   @ Stony Brook L 57-80 16%     2 - 6 -23.4 -15.2 -8.9
  Dec 04, 2021 248   @ Howard L 56-90 19%     2 - 7 -36.1 -21.1 -13.6
  Dec 08, 2021 301   St. Francis (PA) W 83-73 48%     3 - 7 -0.6 +10.8 -10.7
  Dec 11, 2021 282   @ Mount St. Mary's W 72-66 OT 26%     4 - 7 +1.5 -2.4 +3.8
  Dec 21, 2021 123   @ George Mason L 44-67 7%     4 - 8 -17.6 -17.4 -4.9
  Jan 01, 2022 294   Lehigh L 61-63 47%     4 - 9 0 - 1 -12.3 -10.7 -1.8
  Jan 10, 2022 198   Boston University L 53-79 25%     4 - 10 0 - 2 -30.1 -19.4 -12.3
  Jan 16, 2022 331   Bucknell W 63-55 60%     5 - 10 1 - 2 -5.7 -6.3 +2.1
  Jan 19, 2022 266   @ Army L 66-76 22%     5 - 11 1 - 3 -13.0 -8.3 -4.6
  Jan 22, 2022 259   @ Loyola Maryland L 63-72 20%    
  Jan 24, 2022 307   Lafayette L 69-70 51%    
  Jan 26, 2022 344   Holy Cross W 72-68 68%    
  Jan 29, 2022 148   @ Navy L 58-73 8%    
  Feb 02, 2022 307   @ Lafayette L 67-72 30%    
  Feb 06, 2022 129   Colgate L 66-77 17%    
  Feb 09, 2022 331   @ Bucknell L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 12, 2022 198   @ Boston University L 61-73 12%    
  Feb 16, 2022 148   Navy L 61-71 20%    
  Feb 19, 2022 266   Army L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 21, 2022 129   @ Colgate L 63-79 6%    
  Feb 23, 2022 294   @ Lehigh L 67-73 28%    
  Feb 26, 2022 259   Loyola Maryland L 65-69 39%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 5 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 0.6 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.4 9.5 7.3 1.9 0.2 25.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 9.0 11.9 6.1 1.2 0.0 30.0 8th
9th 0.0 2.0 8.8 9.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 24.7 9th
10th 1.7 5.5 4.8 1.5 0.1 13.5 10th
Total 1.7 7.5 15.3 21.4 21.0 16.4 10.0 4.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.6% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
8-10 4.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.3
7-11 10.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.9
6-12 16.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.3
5-13 21.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 20.9
4-14 21.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.4
3-15 15.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
2-16 7.5% 7.5
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%