Navy
Patriot League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#148
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#121
Pace65.1#291
Improvement-5.3#354

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#216
First Shot-2.0#243
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#134
Layup/Dunks-1.9#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#64
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#228
Freethrows-0.9#253
Improvement-2.2#306

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#103
First Shot+1.7#121
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#131
Layups/Dunks-2.8#280
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#14
Freethrows-0.6#240
Improvement-3.1#335
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.9% 30.2% 23.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.1%
Conference Champion 49.7% 55.0% 26.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round28.8% 30.1% 23.1%
Second Round1.8% 1.9% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 33 - 35 - 6
Quad 416 - 421 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 67   @ Virginia W 66-58 18%     1 - 0 +18.5 +5.2 +14.1
  Nov 12, 2021 32   Virginia Tech L 57-77 22%     1 - 1 -10.9 -5.4 -7.6
  Nov 15, 2021 86   @ Louisville L 60-77 22%     1 - 2 -7.9 -5.7 -2.3
  Nov 20, 2021 285   Radford W 47-33 78%     2 - 2 +6.8 -25.0 +32.8
  Nov 21, 2021 102   @ Furman W 77-66 26%     3 - 2 +18.4 +7.2 +11.4
  Nov 27, 2021 282   @ Mount St. Mary's W 67-40 70%     4 - 2 +22.5 -1.2 +25.5
  Dec 01, 2021 340   William & Mary W 75-56 92%     5 - 2 +4.3 +3.0 +2.9
  Dec 07, 2021 123   @ George Mason L 65-71 33%     5 - 3 -0.6 +0.5 -1.7
  Dec 12, 2021 177   @ Marist W 67-61 46%     6 - 3 +7.9 +1.7 +6.7
  Dec 22, 2021 114   Towson L 52-69 47%     6 - 4 -15.4 -16.2 -1.2
  Jan 01, 2022 344   @ Holy Cross W 70-56 86%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +3.5 -3.3 +7.9
  Jan 04, 2022 198   Boston University W 83-71 68%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +7.9 +12.8 -4.1
  Jan 07, 2022 331   Bucknell W 73-55 91%     9 - 4 3 - 0 +4.3 -4.5 +9.8
  Jan 10, 2022 307   @ Lafayette W 69-55 74%     10 - 4 4 - 0 +8.2 +3.3 +7.1
  Jan 13, 2022 129   Colgate L 50-69 53%     10 - 5 4 - 1 -19.0 -20.7 +0.0
  Jan 16, 2022 198   @ Boston University W 72-65 50%     11 - 5 5 - 1 +8.0 +6.1 +2.6
  Jan 19, 2022 294   Lehigh L 61-69 85%     11 - 6 5 - 2 -18.3 -15.3 -3.2
  Jan 22, 2022 266   Army W 72-63 81%    
  Jan 26, 2022 331   @ Bucknell W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 29, 2022 330   American W 73-58 92%    
  Feb 02, 2022 294   @ Lehigh W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 05, 2022 259   @ Loyola Maryland W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 07, 2022 307   Lafayette W 72-60 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 266   @ Army W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 16, 2022 330   @ American W 71-61 80%    
  Feb 19, 2022 344   Holy Cross W 75-59 94%    
  Feb 23, 2022 259   Loyola Maryland W 69-61 80%    
  Feb 26, 2022 129   @ Colgate L 66-70 34%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.5 9.8 18.7 15.2 4.5 49.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 9.2 13.9 6.3 0.7 31.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 5.4 1.1 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.8 0.6 4.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.4 8.5 16.7 24.8 25.0 16.0 4.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 4.5    4.5
15-3 95.4% 15.2    12.8 2.4 0.0
14-4 74.7% 18.7    11.3 6.9 0.4
13-5 39.6% 9.8    2.9 4.9 1.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 8.7% 1.5    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.7% 49.7 31.6 14.7 2.8 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 4.5% 44.9% 44.9% 13.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.5
15-3 16.0% 36.8% 36.8% 13.8 0.1 2.0 3.1 0.7 0.0 10.1
14-4 25.0% 34.0% 34.0% 14.2 0.0 1.2 4.8 2.4 0.1 16.5
13-5 24.8% 27.7% 27.7% 14.5 0.3 2.8 3.5 0.3 18.0
12-6 16.7% 21.0% 21.0% 14.8 0.1 0.8 2.2 0.4 13.2
11-7 8.5% 17.3% 17.3% 15.1 0.2 0.9 0.4 7.0
10-8 3.4% 15.3% 15.3% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 2.9
9-9 1.0% 11.7% 11.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.8
8-10 0.2% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.9% 28.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.5 4.7 12.2 9.9 1.5 71.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 13.0 1.7 19.7 59.0 19.0 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%