Colgate
Patriot League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#129
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#220
Pace68.4#181
Improvement+1.5#111

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#80
First Shot+4.1#60
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#222
Layup/Dunks+2.4#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#12
Freethrows-2.1#315
Improvement-0.8#228

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#207
First Shot-0.4#181
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#239
Layups/Dunks-0.1#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#126
Freethrows+0.9#110
Improvement+2.2#59
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.9% 40.6% 32.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 90.3% 92.1% 73.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.7% 97.0%
Conference Champion 54.1% 56.6% 30.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.5% 3.1% 7.0%
First Round38.7% 39.6% 30.4%
Second Round3.0% 3.2% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lafayette (Home) - 90.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 32 - 54 - 9
Quad 414 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 217   Northeastern W 65-58 76%     1 - 0 +2.0 -8.2 +10.3
  Nov 13, 2021 97   @ North Carolina St. L 74-77 29%     1 - 1 +5.3 +10.7 -5.8
  Nov 16, 2021 229   @ Cornell L 68-78 63%     1 - 2 -10.9 -12.6 +2.6
  Nov 20, 2021 61   @ Syracuse W 100-85 21%     2 - 2 +25.9 +23.8 +1.5
  Nov 24, 2021 179   @ Harvard L 84-89 OT 53%     2 - 3 -3.2 -0.2 -2.2
  Nov 29, 2021 207   Niagara L 59-70 75%     2 - 4 -15.6 -10.1 -6.5
  Dec 03, 2021 217   @ Northeastern L 69-74 60%     2 - 5 -5.0 +4.0 -9.5
  Dec 06, 2021 337   Columbia W 89-61 93%     3 - 5 +13.8 +8.0 +5.7
  Dec 09, 2021 139   @ Pittsburgh L 68-71 44%     3 - 6 +1.1 +1.8 -0.9
  Dec 12, 2021 92   @ St. John's L 64-82 27%     3 - 7 -9.2 -6.4 -2.6
  Dec 19, 2021 137   @ Monmouth L 66-77 44%     3 - 8 -6.9 -0.9 -6.4
  Dec 22, 2021 79   @ Vermont L 68-78 24%     3 - 9 -0.3 +0.1 -0.4
  Jan 04, 2022 294   @ Lehigh L 81-85 77%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -9.3 +3.3 -12.5
  Jan 10, 2022 266   Army W 76-57 84%     4 - 10 1 - 1 +11.0 +3.8 +8.2
  Jan 13, 2022 148   @ Navy W 69-50 47%     5 - 10 2 - 1 +22.4 +5.8 +18.2
  Jan 19, 2022 331   @ Bucknell W 75-56 85%     6 - 10 3 - 1 +10.3 +2.1 +9.8
  Jan 22, 2022 307   Lafayette W 79-66 91%    
  Jan 24, 2022 259   Loyola Maryland W 75-65 84%    
  Jan 29, 2022 198   @ Boston University W 71-69 54%    
  Jan 31, 2022 307   @ Lafayette W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 02, 2022 331   Bucknell W 83-67 94%    
  Feb 06, 2022 330   @ American W 77-66 83%    
  Feb 09, 2022 294   Lehigh W 80-67 89%    
  Feb 12, 2022 259   @ Loyola Maryland W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 16, 2022 266   @ Army W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 19, 2022 198   Boston University W 73-66 74%    
  Feb 21, 2022 330   American W 79-63 94%    
  Feb 23, 2022 344   @ Holy Cross W 79-66 87%    
  Feb 26, 2022 148   Navy W 70-66 66%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 13 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.6 9.3 18.9 17.5 6.8 54.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 8.4 11.7 4.7 0.3 26.3 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.7 5.1 1.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.8 8.5 15.7 22.0 23.6 17.8 6.8 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 6.8    6.8
15-3 98.4% 17.5    15.0 2.5 0.0
14-4 80.2% 18.9    11.6 6.9 0.4
13-5 42.4% 9.3    2.5 4.9 1.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 10.0% 1.6    0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 54.1% 54.1 35.9 14.8 2.9 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 6.8% 57.3% 57.3% 13.5 0.2 1.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 2.9
15-3 17.8% 49.8% 49.8% 14.4 0.0 0.9 4.2 3.5 0.3 8.9
14-4 23.6% 43.9% 43.9% 14.8 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.0 1.5 13.2
13-5 22.0% 38.1% 38.1% 15.3 0.0 0.8 4.4 3.1 13.6
12-6 15.7% 31.1% 31.1% 15.6 0.0 2.0 2.8 10.8
11-7 8.5% 26.5% 26.5% 15.8 0.5 1.8 6.2
10-8 3.8% 23.6% 23.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9 2.9
9-9 1.3% 23.3% 23.3% 16.0 0.3 1.0
8-10 0.4% 14.9% 14.9% 16.0 0.1 0.4
7-11 0.1% 22.0% 22.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 39.9% 39.9% 0.0% 14.9 0.2 2.8 9.5 16.6 10.8 60.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.9% 100.0% 13.5 4.9 43.4 45.1 6.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%