Boston University
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#198
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#194
Pace62.4#324
Improvement-2.9#299

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#169
First Shot-0.8#212
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#99
Layup/Dunks-1.1#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#116
Freethrows+0.6#137
Improvement-1.3#261

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#226
First Shot-0.5#185
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#287
Layups/Dunks-3.3#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#18
Freethrows-1.6#285
Improvement-1.6#266
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 15.6% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 98.6% 99.3% 95.7%
.500 or above in Conference 90.8% 94.1% 77.0%
Conference Champion 5.5% 6.5% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four2.9% 2.7% 4.0%
First Round13.4% 14.5% 9.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 418 - 620 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 89   @ Rhode Island L 62-71 16%     0 - 1 +0.0 -6.3 +6.5
  Nov 16, 2021 217   @ Northeastern L 48-49 44%     0 - 2 -1.0 -17.4 +16.2
  Nov 18, 2021 278   @ Hartford W 75-70 60%     1 - 2 +0.9 +5.8 -4.5
  Nov 21, 2021 295   Northern Illinois W 76-58 73%     2 - 2 +10.1 +13.7 -1.0
  Nov 22, 2021 212   Sam Houston St. W 72-59 53%     3 - 2 +10.7 +3.9 +7.7
  Nov 24, 2021 42   @ Florida St. L 80-81 OT 10%     3 - 3 +11.9 +9.9 +2.0
  Nov 28, 2021 289   Merrimack W 61-60 79%     4 - 3 -9.0 +1.0 -9.8
  Dec 01, 2021 271   @ George Washington W 56-54 58%     5 - 3 -1.6 -10.4 +9.1
  Dec 04, 2021 310   Binghamton W 68-63 82%     6 - 3 -6.1 -4.0 -1.5
  Dec 08, 2021 262   Umass Lowell W 72-62 73%     7 - 3 +2.2 -3.9 +5.9
  Dec 11, 2021 243   @ Dartmouth W 65-62 52%     8 - 3 +1.0 +1.2 +0.2
  Dec 18, 2021 177   Marist L 79-84 OT 56%     8 - 4 -8.1 +0.8 -8.6
  Jan 01, 2022 331   Bucknell W 63-61 87%     9 - 4 1 - 0 -11.7 -12.5 +0.9
  Jan 04, 2022 148   @ Navy L 71-83 32%     9 - 5 1 - 1 -8.6 +6.5 -15.9
  Jan 07, 2022 259   Loyola Maryland L 58-66 72%     9 - 6 1 - 2 -15.6 -10.6 -5.9
  Jan 10, 2022 330   @ American W 79-53 75%     10 - 6 2 - 2 +17.3 +6.4 +12.5
  Jan 13, 2022 266   @ Army L 63-73 56%     10 - 7 2 - 3 -13.0 -8.4 -5.0
  Jan 16, 2022 148   Navy L 65-72 50%     10 - 8 2 - 4 -8.7 -0.1 -9.2
  Jan 19, 2022 259   @ Loyola Maryland W 67-50 54%     11 - 8 3 - 4 +14.4 +4.2 +12.8
  Jan 22, 2022 294   Lehigh W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 26, 2022 307   @ Lafayette W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 29, 2022 129   Colgate L 69-71 46%    
  Jan 31, 2022 344   Holy Cross W 75-61 91%    
  Feb 05, 2022 294   @ Lehigh W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 09, 2022 266   Army W 71-65 74%    
  Feb 12, 2022 330   American W 73-61 88%    
  Feb 16, 2022 344   @ Holy Cross W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 19, 2022 129   @ Colgate L 66-73 26%    
  Feb 23, 2022 307   Lafayette W 72-63 82%    
  Feb 26, 2022 331   @ Bucknell W 74-67 74%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.6 5.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 6.9 5.4 0.6 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 11.4 10.1 1.4 0.0 25.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 9.1 10.0 1.7 0.0 22.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 6.1 7.8 1.9 0.0 17.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.0 4.8 1.6 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.3 13.2 21.2 24.8 19.5 9.8 2.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 73.3% 1.6    0.9 0.7 0.1
13-5 31.3% 3.1    0.6 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 1.5 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.2% 29.7% 29.7% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 1.6
13-5 9.8% 25.9% 25.9% 15.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.4 7.3
12-6 19.5% 18.4% 18.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 2.0 1.4 15.9
11-7 24.8% 15.4% 15.4% 15.6 0.1 1.4 2.3 21.0
10-8 21.2% 11.8% 11.8% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.0 18.7
9-9 13.2% 8.0% 8.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 12.2
8-10 6.3% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 5.8
7-11 2.2% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.1 2.1
6-12 0.6% 0.6
5-13 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.1 1.2 5.8 7.6 85.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 14.2 9.1 62.0 28.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%