Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
100 Chattanooga 31.8%   13   12 - 4 4 - 1 21 - 8 13 - 5 +5.3      +5.3 48 0.0 167 62.0 333 +7.4 81 +6.9 1
102 Furman 27.2%   12 - 7 5 - 2 20 - 10 13 - 5 +4.9      +4.5 56 +0.4 160 66.7 239 +3.5 120 +4.0 2
115 Wofford 19.5%   10 - 7 4 - 3 17 - 11 11 - 7 +3.7      +3.5 85 +0.3 163 64.6 302 +0.9 157 -1.0 6
174 East Tennessee St. 6.0%   10 - 8 4 - 3 16 - 13 10 - 8 -0.5      +1.6 128 -2.1 235 64.7 299 +2.7 128 +1.3 4
175 UNC Greensboro 5.2%   9 - 7 2 - 3 15 - 13 8 - 9 -0.5      -3.5 269 +3.0 90 59.1 349 +0.4 164 -1.8 7
196 Mercer 4.7%   9 - 8 4 - 2 15 - 14 10 - 8 -1.5      +1.3 134 -2.8 261 66.2 261 +0.1 167 +2.7 3
197 VMI 4.6%   7 - 8 3 - 3 13 - 14 9 - 9 -1.5      +3.2 93 -4.7 313 71.1 115 -1.8 198 +0.9 5
237 Samford 1.2%   8 - 6 1 - 4 12 - 14 5 - 12 -4.1      +0.4 166 -4.4 306 76.1 32 +1.6 146 -9.7 9
283 The Citadel 0.2%   4 - 10 1 - 5 7 - 18 4 - 13 -7.0      -1.7 220 -5.3 322 75.0 51 -10.0 312 -10.7 10
312 Western Carolina 0.1%   7 - 11 2 - 4 10 - 19 5 - 12 -8.7      -2.6 251 -6.1 333 73.6 66 -4.2 241 -3.7 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Chattanooga 1.7 60.0 23.3 9.1 4.3 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Furman 2.0 41.4 33.9 14.2 6.3 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
Wofford 3.2 12.9 22.5 27.9 17.3 10.7 5.8 2.5 0.4 0.1
East Tennessee St. 4.4 4.1 9.8 18.6 22.1 18.7 14.8 9.2 2.1 0.5 0.1
UNC Greensboro 5.7 0.8 2.8 7.5 12.9 16.9 21.4 25.4 9.2 2.6 0.6
Mercer 4.5 4.2 9.3 16.5 20.0 19.7 16.6 10.4 2.6 0.6 0.1
VMI 4.9 2.6 6.6 13.1 18.2 20.0 19.4 13.9 4.7 1.2 0.3
Samford 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 3.9 7.6 15.2 33.8 22.7 14.2
The Citadel 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 6.0 21.3 32.3 37.5
Western Carolina 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.1 8.0 27.5 35.2 24.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Chattanooga 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.4 8.8 14.3 20.1 21.6 16.9 9.3 2.2
Furman 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.2 12.7 19.8 23.9 20.3 11.0 2.8
Wofford 11 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.9 10.8 17.6 22.7 21.1 14.0 5.8 1.0
East Tennessee St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.7 2.6 6.8 13.5 19.7 21.8 18.0 10.5 4.8 1.4 0.2
UNC Greensboro 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.5 10.4 17.6 21.1 20.1 14.2 7.2 2.4 0.6 0.1
Mercer 10 - 8 0.1 0.8 3.4 8.1 15.5 19.9 20.7 16.1 9.5 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.0
VMI 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.7 11.4 16.7 21.2 19.0 13.3 7.3 2.6 0.5 0.0
Samford 5 - 13 0.9 4.4 10.8 17.2 19.9 18.8 13.8 8.3 4.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 4 - 14 3.3 13.2 22.4 24.6 18.5 10.6 4.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 5 - 13 6.9 18.5 26.4 23.1 14.3 7.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Chattanooga 60.0% 43.3 13.8 2.4 0.4 0.0
Furman 41.4% 25.3 13.1 2.5 0.5 0.0
Wofford 12.9% 5.7 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.0
East Tennessee St. 4.1% 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
UNC Greensboro 0.8% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mercer 4.2% 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
VMI 2.6% 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Samford 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
The Citadel
Western Carolina


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Chattanooga 31.8% 31.3% 0.4% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.7 10.3 15.0 3.4 0.1 68.2 0.6%
Furman 27.2% 27.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.9 14.0 7.5 1.2 0.0 72.8 0.0%
Wofford 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 5.2 8.7 4.3 0.6 80.5 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.9 2.4 1.4 0.2 94.0 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 2.2 1.8 0.4 94.8 0.0%
Mercer 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 0.8 95.3 0.0%
VMI 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.2 1.0 95.4 0.0%
Samford 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 98.8 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Chattanooga 31.8% 0.4% 31.5% 6.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 27.2% 0.0% 27.1% 4.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 19.5% 0.1% 19.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 6.0% 0.1% 6.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 5.2% 0.1% 5.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 4.7% 0.3% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 4.6% 0.5% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.5 0.5
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.1 0.2
2nd Round 14.2% 0.1 85.8 14.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0