Wofford
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#115
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#157
Pace64.6#302
Improvement+0.7#143

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#85
First Shot+3.1#85
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#149
Layup/Dunks+2.4#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#26
Freethrows-0.6#229
Improvement-0.5#215

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#163
First Shot-3.2#282
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#8
Layups/Dunks-1.0#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#316
Freethrows+0.0#199
Improvement+1.3#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.5% 22.6% 15.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 96.3% 98.7% 93.2%
.500 or above in Conference 93.0% 97.2% 87.6%
Conference Champion 12.9% 19.5% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round19.4% 22.6% 15.4%
Second Round2.3% 2.9% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 67 - 10
Quad 411 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 68   @ Clemson L 68-76 26%     0 - 1 +2.5 -1.4 +4.0
  Nov 19, 2021 332   Hampton W 77-60 94%     1 - 1 +3.2 +0.8 +2.5
  Nov 21, 2021 233   Georgia Southern W 70-52 83%     2 - 1 +11.6 +6.1 +8.1
  Nov 23, 2021 113   @ South Carolina L 74-85 39%     2 - 2 -4.4 +5.8 -9.9
  Nov 28, 2021 201   @ Georgia W 68-65 61%     3 - 2 +3.9 -3.2 +7.3
  Dec 01, 2021 99   Richmond L 64-73 52%     3 - 3 -5.8 -1.1 -5.7
  Dec 05, 2021 214   Kennesaw St. W 88-62 79%     4 - 3 +21.1 +24.2 +0.3
  Dec 08, 2021 223   @ Gardner-Webb W 78-70 66%     5 - 3 +7.6 +5.9 +1.6
  Dec 12, 2021 173   @ Coastal Carolina L 59-60 56%     5 - 4 +1.1 -5.4 +6.4
  Dec 18, 2021 299   @ Presbyterian W 76-49 81%     6 - 4 +21.5 +15.9 +10.6
  Dec 29, 2021 197   VMI L 73-80 77%     6 - 5 0 - 1 -11.0 -6.0 -5.0
  Jan 05, 2022 100   Chattanooga L 67-75 54%     6 - 6 0 - 2 -5.2 -5.9 +0.6
  Jan 08, 2022 174   @ East Tennessee St. W 68-57 57%     7 - 6 1 - 2 +13.1 +0.1 +13.9
  Jan 10, 2022 175   @ UNC Greensboro L 54-58 57%     7 - 7 1 - 3 -2.0 -4.8 +2.0
  Jan 12, 2022 237   Samford W 87-64 83%     8 - 7 2 - 3 +16.4 +16.3 +2.2
  Jan 15, 2022 312   @ Western Carolina W 84-64 82%     9 - 7 3 - 3 +13.8 +10.7 +4.2
  Jan 19, 2022 283   The Citadel W 89-77 89%     10 - 7 4 - 3 +2.5 +6.4 -4.4
  Jan 22, 2022 102   Furman W 71-70 56%    
  Jan 26, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 66-70 33%    
  Jan 29, 2022 175   UNC Greensboro W 65-58 76%    
  Jan 31, 2022 196   @ Mercer W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 05, 2022 174   East Tennessee St. W 72-65 75%    
  Feb 09, 2022 237   @ Samford W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 312   Western Carolina W 81-66 93%    
  Feb 16, 2022 283   @ The Citadel W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 19, 2022 102   @ Furman L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 23, 2022 197   @ VMI W 76-73 58%    
  Feb 26, 2022 196   Mercer W 74-66 78%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 5.4 4.5 1.0 12.9 1st
2nd 0.2 3.6 10.1 7.3 1.3 0.0 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 4.7 13.0 8.7 1.2 0.0 27.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 8.5 5.5 0.5 0.0 17.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 5.0 4.0 0.5 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.5 0.3 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.9 10.8 17.6 22.7 21.1 14.0 5.8 1.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 97.2% 1.0    0.9 0.1
14-4 78.0% 4.5    2.9 1.6 0.1
13-5 38.7% 5.4    1.8 2.6 1.0 0.0
12-6 8.7% 1.8    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.9% 12.9 5.7 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.0% 41.1% 41.1% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 5.8% 34.3% 34.3% 13.1 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.8
13-5 14.0% 28.8% 28.8% 13.6 0.1 1.8 1.9 0.2 9.9
12-6 21.1% 23.7% 23.7% 13.9 0.1 1.3 2.8 0.8 0.0 16.1
11-7 22.7% 18.0% 18.0% 14.2 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.2 0.1 18.6
10-8 17.6% 13.7% 13.7% 14.5 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.1 15.2
9-9 10.8% 10.1% 10.1% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 9.7
8-10 4.9% 7.6% 7.6% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 4.6
7-11 1.6% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.5
6-12 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.1% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 5.2 8.7 4.3 0.6 80.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.3 1.5 12.3 49.0 32.8 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%