The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#283
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#312
Pace75.0#51
Improvement-2.8#296

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#220
First Shot-0.8#209
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#250
Layup/Dunks-2.0#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#43
Freethrows-1.2#273
Improvement-1.4#267

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#322
First Shot-5.1#323
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#192
Layups/Dunks-1.8#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#279
Freethrows-1.1#270
Improvement-1.4#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.6% 2.3% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 55.6% 34.8% 60.1%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 17.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 45 - 88 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 139   @ Pittsburgh W 78-63 15%     1 - 0 +19.1 +10.4 +9.1
  Nov 15, 2021 299   @ Presbyterian L 70-74 2OT 44%     1 - 1 -9.5 -12.3 +3.3
  Nov 22, 2021 10   @ Duke L 81-107 2%     1 - 2 -6.4 +14.0 -19.7
  Nov 28, 2021 346   @ South Carolina St. W 91-79 OT 64%     2 - 2 +1.2 -0.2 -0.6
  Dec 01, 2021 249   @ UNC Asheville L 58-65 32%     2 - 3 -9.2 -13.3 +3.6
  Dec 06, 2021 327   NC Central W 80-67 73%     3 - 3 -0.5 +1.8 -2.5
  Dec 20, 2021 346   South Carolina St. L 57-74 80%     3 - 4 -32.9 -24.6 -7.5
  Dec 21, 2021 267   Manhattan L 74-77 55%     3 - 5 -11.2 -4.2 -7.0
  Jan 05, 2022 312   @ Western Carolina L 90-94 OT 47%     3 - 6 0 - 1 -10.2 +3.8 -13.5
  Jan 08, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 67-85 9%     3 - 7 0 - 2 -10.2 -6.5 -3.1
  Jan 13, 2022 175   UNC Greensboro W 74-69 35%     4 - 7 1 - 2 +2.0 +4.3 -2.2
  Jan 15, 2022 197   VMI L 85-90 38%     4 - 8 1 - 3 -9.0 -1.6 -6.9
  Jan 17, 2022 196   Mercer L 64-71 38%     4 - 9 1 - 4 -11.0 -15.7 +5.0
  Jan 19, 2022 115   @ Wofford L 77-89 11%     4 - 10 1 - 5 -5.7 +3.0 -8.3
  Jan 22, 2022 174   @ East Tennessee St. L 70-79 18%    
  Jan 26, 2022 312   Western Carolina W 81-77 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 100   Chattanooga L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 02, 2022 102   @ Furman L 69-83 8%    
  Feb 05, 2022 237   Samford L 81-82 50%    
  Feb 10, 2022 175   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-70 20%    
  Feb 12, 2022 197   @ VMI L 76-84 21%    
  Feb 16, 2022 115   Wofford L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 19, 2022 174   East Tennessee St. L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 23, 2022 196   @ Mercer L 71-79 22%    
  Feb 26, 2022 102   Furman L 71-80 21%    
Projected Record 7 - 18 4 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.5 4.3 8.6 6.5 1.4 0.1 21.3 8th
9th 0.9 7.7 13.8 8.3 1.6 0.1 32.3 9th
10th 3.3 12.3 14.3 6.4 1.0 0.0 37.5 10th
Total 3.3 13.2 22.4 24.6 18.5 10.6 4.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 5.6% 5.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 1.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.8
7-11 4.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.8
6-12 10.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.6
5-13 18.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.5
4-14 24.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.6
3-15 22.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.4
2-16 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.2
1-17 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%