Mercer
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#196
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#167
Pace66.2#261
Improvement+1.6#102

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#134
First Shot+2.3#109
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#258
Layup/Dunks-1.6#236
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#53
Freethrows+0.1#170
Improvement-0.2#180

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#261
First Shot-2.2#256
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#228
Layups/Dunks-3.5#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#215
Freethrows+0.4#161
Improvement+1.7#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 4.9% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 54.7% 59.6% 30.1%
.500 or above in Conference 72.1% 77.0% 47.1%
Conference Champion 4.2% 4.8% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 2.3%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round4.5% 4.8% 3.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 83.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 35 - 86 - 13
Quad 410 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 31   @ Arkansas L 61-74 8%     0 - 1 +1.4 -3.6 +4.7
  Nov 13, 2021 183   @ Winthrop L 85-88 OT 38%     0 - 2 -1.3 +0.2 -1.2
  Nov 20, 2021 71   @ Saint Louis L 58-75 14%     0 - 3 -6.8 -6.0 -1.9
  Nov 23, 2021 331   Bucknell W 78-68 82%     1 - 3 -1.2 -4.5 +3.0
  Nov 24, 2021 159   Middle Tennessee L 58-82 43%     1 - 4 -23.8 -14.3 -8.6
  Dec 01, 2021 214   @ Kennesaw St. W 73-71 44%     2 - 4 +2.1 +7.6 -5.3
  Dec 04, 2021 210   Georgia St. W 83-77 62%     3 - 4 +1.2 +13.0 -11.3
  Dec 06, 2021 173   @ Coastal Carolina W 74-69 36%     4 - 4 +7.1 +11.5 -3.7
  Dec 11, 2021 233   Georgia Southern W 77-68 68%     5 - 4 +2.6 +3.3 -0.6
  Dec 19, 2021 221   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 55-67 45%     5 - 5 -12.3 -14.7 +1.3
  Dec 22, 2021 189   Troy L 65-69 59%     5 - 6 -7.8 -6.0 -1.9
  Jan 05, 2022 237   Samford W 83-80 69%     6 - 6 1 - 0 -3.6 +2.2 -5.9
  Jan 08, 2022 102   @ Furman L 66-81 20%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -7.6 -4.5 -3.3
  Jan 13, 2022 197   VMI W 97-91 60%     7 - 7 2 - 1 +2.0 +19.4 -17.3
  Jan 15, 2022 175   UNC Greensboro W 58-49 56%     8 - 7 3 - 1 +6.0 -3.9 +11.3
  Jan 17, 2022 283   @ The Citadel W 71-64 62%     9 - 7 4 - 1 +2.5 -9.0 +11.2
  Jan 19, 2022 174   @ East Tennessee St. L 64-72 36%     9 - 8 4 - 2 -5.9 -3.8 -2.8
  Jan 22, 2022 312   Western Carolina W 80-70 83%    
  Jan 26, 2022 237   @ Samford W 77-76 48%    
  Jan 29, 2022 102   Furman L 70-74 38%    
  Jan 31, 2022 115   Wofford L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 05, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 65-74 18%    
  Feb 07, 2022 100   Chattanooga L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 10, 2022 197   @ VMI L 75-77 39%    
  Feb 13, 2022 175   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-64 36%    
  Feb 16, 2022 174   East Tennessee St. W 71-70 57%    
  Feb 19, 2022 312   @ Western Carolina W 77-72 64%    
  Feb 23, 2022 283   The Citadel W 79-71 78%    
  Feb 26, 2022 115   @ Wofford L 66-74 22%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 4.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.8 8.4 3.6 0.4 0.0 16.5 3rd
4th 0.3 4.4 10.1 5.0 0.3 20.0 4th
5th 0.2 3.5 9.7 5.9 0.5 19.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 8.1 5.1 0.7 16.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.6 3.5 0.6 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.4 8.1 15.5 19.9 20.7 16.1 9.5 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 98.1% 0.3    0.3 0.1
14-4 79.9% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 44.3% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0
12-6 9.7% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 21.8% 21.8% 13.2 0.1 0.0 0.2
14-4 1.3% 16.5% 16.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-5 4.3% 13.8% 13.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.7
12-6 9.5% 8.7% 8.7% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 8.7
11-7 16.1% 6.0% 6.0% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 15.1
10-8 20.7% 4.4% 4.4% 15.1 0.1 0.7 0.1 19.7
9-9 19.9% 3.3% 3.3% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 19.3
8-10 15.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 15.2
7-11 8.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 8.0
6-12 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.4
5-13 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 0.8 95.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%