Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#312
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#241
Pace73.6#66
Improvement-2.5#287

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#251
First Shot-3.8#289
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#88
Layup/Dunks-7.0#352
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#29
Freethrows+0.1#173
Improvement-2.2#300

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#333
First Shot-5.5#329
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#220
Layups/Dunks-3.4#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#330
Freethrows-0.1#204
Improvement-0.4#199
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 1.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 1.0% 4.1% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 41.2% 21.5% 45.1%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Away) - 16.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 103 - 14
Quad 47 - 610 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 182   Bowling Green W 79-71 OT 30%     1 - 0 +4.7 -12.0 +15.3
  Nov 12, 2021 49   @ Wake Forest L 75-87 4%     1 - 1 +0.4 +2.3 -0.9
  Nov 14, 2021 153   @ East Carolina L 79-95 14%     1 - 2 -12.9 +1.7 -13.6
  Nov 19, 2021 254   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 75-91 36%     1 - 3 -20.9 -3.7 -16.6
  Nov 20, 2021 330   American W 80-79 60%     2 - 3 -10.2 +3.1 -13.2
  Nov 21, 2021 187   @ Longwood W 64-53 17%     3 - 3 +12.5 -4.4 +17.5
  Nov 27, 2021 223   @ Gardner-Webb L 59-87 21%     3 - 4 -28.4 -8.8 -21.1
  Dec 04, 2021 311   @ South Carolina Upstate W 78-73 40%     4 - 4 -1.1 +0.7 -1.7
  Dec 08, 2021 290   Tennessee Tech W 74-69 OT 56%     5 - 4 -5.1 -8.1 +2.6
  Dec 11, 2021 249   UNC Asheville L 72-73 44%     5 - 5 -8.2 -7.2 -1.0
  Dec 20, 2021 201   @ Georgia L 79-85 18%     5 - 6 -5.1 +0.0 -4.8
  Dec 22, 2021 195   @ Charlotte L 82-98 18%     5 - 7 -15.0 +6.3 -20.8
  Jan 05, 2022 283   The Citadel W 94-90 OT 53%     6 - 7 1 - 0 -5.5 +5.6 -11.5
  Jan 08, 2022 237   @ Samford L 60-85 25%     6 - 8 1 - 1 -26.6 -19.9 -5.1
  Jan 10, 2022 174   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-87 16%     6 - 9 1 - 2 -15.9 -6.8 -8.6
  Jan 12, 2022 100   Chattanooga W 70-59 14%     7 - 9 2 - 2 +13.8 -3.8 +17.7
  Jan 15, 2022 115   Wofford L 64-84 18%     7 - 10 2 - 3 -18.8 -6.5 -13.3
  Jan 19, 2022 102   @ Furman L 50-88 8%     7 - 11 2 - 4 -30.6 -19.8 -11.8
  Jan 22, 2022 196   @ Mercer L 70-80 17%    
  Jan 26, 2022 283   @ The Citadel L 77-81 33%    
  Jan 29, 2022 237   Samford L 80-82 44%    
  Feb 02, 2022 174   East Tennessee St. L 71-77 31%    
  Feb 04, 2022 197   @ VMI L 74-84 17%    
  Feb 09, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 64-81 6%    
  Feb 12, 2022 115   @ Wofford L 66-81 7%    
  Feb 16, 2022 102   Furman L 70-81 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 196   Mercer L 72-77 36%    
  Feb 23, 2022 175   @ UNC Greensboro L 60-71 15%    
  Feb 26, 2022 197   VMI L 77-82 35%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 5 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.6 0.7 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.5 5.0 11.3 8.7 2.0 0.1 27.5 8th
9th 0.6 7.2 15.2 9.9 2.3 0.1 35.2 9th
10th 6.2 10.8 6.2 1.2 0.0 24.5 10th
Total 6.9 18.5 26.4 23.1 14.3 7.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
7-11 7.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 7.1
6-12 14.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.3
5-13 23.1% 23.1
4-14 26.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 26.4
3-15 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.5
2-16 6.9% 6.9
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.6%