UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#175
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#164
Pace59.1#349
Improvement+1.2#116

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#269
First Shot-3.8#290
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#154
Layup/Dunks-1.8#247
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#232
Freethrows-0.3#199
Improvement-1.1#244

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#90
First Shot+2.2#105
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#117
Layups/Dunks+6.6#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#339
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#283
Freethrows+0.9#117
Improvement+2.3#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 6.6% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.5
.500 or above 78.7% 90.3% 71.2%
.500 or above in Conference 44.5% 62.7% 32.9%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.5% 2.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round5.2% 6.6% 4.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 39.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 410 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 272   N.C. A&T W 57-53 78%     1 - 0 -4.6 -16.3 +11.9
  Nov 12, 2021 264   @ Northern Kentucky W 70-69 OT 59%     2 - 0 -2.0 -7.2 +5.2
  Nov 15, 2021 302   Coppin St. W 55-48 83%     3 - 0 -3.7 -21.1 +17.4
  Nov 18, 2021 321   Green Bay W 60-58 82%     4 - 0 -8.2 -3.6 -4.0
  Nov 19, 2021 154   Massachusetts L 90-93 OT 46%     4 - 1 -2.5 +7.3 -9.6
  Nov 21, 2021 252   Florida International L 71-74 OT 66%     4 - 2 -7.9 -1.9 -6.0
  Nov 27, 2021 79   Vermont W 54-51 31%     5 - 2 +7.7 -4.1 +12.5
  Nov 30, 2021 232   Elon W 74-61 71%     6 - 2 +6.7 -1.9 +8.8
  Dec 11, 2021 15   @ Tennessee L 36-76 6%     6 - 3 -22.9 -20.2 -8.8
  Dec 14, 2021 114   @ Towson L 64-74 25%     6 - 4 -3.4 -1.3 -3.1
  Dec 16, 2021 254   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 62-51 57%     7 - 4 +8.6 -3.1 +13.3
  Jan 05, 2022 102   Furman L 54-58 39%     7 - 5 0 - 1 -1.6 -8.1 +5.6
  Jan 08, 2022 197   @ VMI W 72-56 44%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +17.0 +0.9 +17.2
  Jan 10, 2022 115   Wofford W 58-54 43%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +5.2 -5.2 +11.2
  Jan 13, 2022 283   @ The Citadel L 69-74 65%     9 - 6 2 - 2 -9.5 -6.6 -3.0
  Jan 15, 2022 196   @ Mercer L 49-58 44%     9 - 7 2 - 3 -8.0 -17.6 +8.2
  Jan 20, 2022 100   Chattanooga L 60-63 39%    
  Jan 22, 2022 237   Samford W 70-64 74%    
  Jan 26, 2022 174   @ East Tennessee St. L 60-63 38%    
  Jan 29, 2022 115   @ Wofford L 58-65 24%    
  Feb 02, 2022 197   VMI W 68-65 64%    
  Feb 05, 2022 102   @ Furman L 59-67 22%    
  Feb 10, 2022 283   The Citadel W 70-61 80%    
  Feb 13, 2022 196   Mercer W 64-61 64%    
  Feb 17, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 57-65 20%    
  Feb 19, 2022 237   @ Samford W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 23, 2022 312   Western Carolina W 71-60 85%    
  Feb 27, 2022 174   East Tennessee St. W 63-61 60%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 8 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 3.9 0.7 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.3 3.7 6.9 2.0 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.3 3.6 8.9 4.0 0.1 16.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 4.0 10.2 6.2 0.6 21.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 5.6 11.2 6.9 1.0 0.0 25.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.1 2.0 0.2 9.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.5 10.4 17.6 21.1 20.1 14.2 7.2 2.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 77.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 55.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 13.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 25.8% 25.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.6% 18.0% 18.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
12-6 2.4% 14.2% 14.2% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.1
11-7 7.2% 12.0% 12.0% 13.8 0.3 0.5 0.1 6.3
10-8 14.2% 8.5% 8.5% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 12.9
9-9 20.1% 6.1% 6.1% 14.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 18.9
8-10 21.1% 4.0% 4.0% 14.8 0.2 0.5 0.1 20.3
7-11 17.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 17.2
6-12 10.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.2
5-13 4.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.5
4-14 1.5% 1.5
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.9 2.2 1.8 0.4 94.8 0.0%