East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#174
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#128
Pace64.7#299
Improvement-2.3#274

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#128
First Shot+0.3#168
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#80
Layup/Dunks-3.0#289
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#106
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#23
Freethrows-3.8#354
Improvement+0.0#171

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#235
First Shot-1.2#214
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#258
Layups/Dunks-0.5#205
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#324
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#173
Freethrows+1.3#92
Improvement-2.3#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.4% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 78.6% 83.3% 56.7%
.500 or above in Conference 76.4% 81.4% 53.1%
Conference Champion 4.1% 4.7% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 1.4%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round6.0% 6.4% 4.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Home) - 82.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 68 - 11
Quad 48 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 185   @ Appalachian St. L 67-69 42%     0 - 1 -0.4 +3.3 -3.9
  Nov 14, 2021 15   @ Tennessee L 62-94 6%     0 - 2 -14.9 -4.2 -8.4
  Nov 18, 2021 311   South Carolina Upstate W 56-43 84%     1 - 2 +1.9 -18.2 +21.6
  Nov 22, 2021 51   Murray St. W 66-58 18%     2 - 2 +17.3 +0.4 +17.3
  Nov 23, 2021 77   Missouri St. W 77-76 23%     3 - 2 +8.2 +17.5 -9.1
  Nov 24, 2021 164   Kent St. W 57-51 48%     4 - 2 +6.0 -7.4 +14.1
  Dec 01, 2021 50   @ UAB L 56-70 13%     4 - 3 -2.0 -8.3 +5.5
  Dec 11, 2021 145   Morehead St. W 82-75 54%     5 - 3 +5.6 +9.1 -3.5
  Dec 14, 2021 272   N.C. A&T L 67-69 78%     5 - 4 -10.6 -5.6 -5.1
  Dec 18, 2021 249   @ UNC Asheville L 64-79 57%     5 - 5 -17.2 -6.5 -11.7
  Dec 22, 2021 201   @ Georgia W 86-84 45%     6 - 5 +2.9 +9.8 -6.9
  Dec 30, 2021 100   @ Chattanooga L 52-82 21%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -22.2 -12.7 -13.4
  Jan 05, 2022 197   VMI W 80-79 64%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -3.0 +1.1 -4.1
  Jan 08, 2022 115   Wofford L 57-68 43%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -9.8 -11.9 +1.2
  Jan 10, 2022 312   Western Carolina W 87-69 84%     8 - 7 2 - 2 +6.8 +4.2 +2.0
  Jan 12, 2022 102   @ Furman L 69-78 23%     8 - 8 2 - 3 -1.6 -1.1 -0.7
  Jan 15, 2022 237   @ Samford W 88-85 54%     9 - 8 3 - 3 +1.4 +13.0 -11.6
  Jan 19, 2022 196   Mercer W 72-64 64%     10 - 8 4 - 3 +4.0 +1.6 +3.1
  Jan 22, 2022 283   The Citadel W 79-70 82%    
  Jan 26, 2022 175   UNC Greensboro W 63-60 62%    
  Jan 29, 2022 197   @ VMI L 74-75 42%    
  Feb 02, 2022 312   @ Western Carolina W 77-71 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 115   @ Wofford L 65-72 25%    
  Feb 07, 2022 102   Furman L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 12, 2022 237   Samford W 78-72 73%    
  Feb 16, 2022 196   @ Mercer L 70-71 43%    
  Feb 19, 2022 283   @ The Citadel W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 23, 2022 100   Chattanooga L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 27, 2022 175   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-63 40%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 1.8 1.1 0.2 4.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 4.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.0 9.3 4.5 0.5 0.0 18.6 3rd
4th 0.3 4.2 11.2 5.9 0.4 22.1 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 9.3 5.8 0.5 18.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 6.8 5.3 0.7 0.0 14.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.6 6.8 13.5 19.7 21.8 18.0 10.5 4.8 1.4 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 88.5% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 74.1% 1.1    0.5 0.4 0.1
13-5 38.0% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0
12-6 9.7% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 28.7% 28.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.4% 16.7% 16.7% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.2
13-5 4.8% 16.0% 16.0% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 4.0
12-6 10.5% 11.0% 11.0% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 9.4
11-7 18.0% 7.1% 7.1% 13.8 0.4 0.7 0.2 16.7
10-8 21.8% 5.6% 5.6% 14.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 20.6
9-9 19.7% 3.9% 3.9% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 18.9
8-10 13.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 13.1
7-11 6.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.5 0.1 0.1 6.7
6-12 2.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 0.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 1.9 2.4 1.4 0.2 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.8 44.0 36.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%