Samford
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#237
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#146
Pace76.1#32
Improvement-0.9#213

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#166
First Shot-1.5#233
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#50
Layup/Dunks-2.5#278
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#59
Freethrows-1.3#278
Improvement+1.5#83

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#306
First Shot-6.7#342
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#28
Layups/Dunks-2.0#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#118
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#315
Freethrows-2.3#310
Improvement-2.3#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.8% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 40.5% 61.8% 31.3%
.500 or above in Conference 6.0% 13.1% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.7% 12.9% 31.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.1% 1.7% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Away) - 30.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 12
Quad 49 - 313 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 39   @ San Francisco L 55-77 6%     0 - 1 -8.9 -13.2 +5.5
  Nov 18, 2021 124   @ Oregon St. W 78-77 19%     1 - 1 +6.4 +4.9 +1.5
  Nov 26, 2021 272   N.C. A&T W 77-75 58%     2 - 1 -4.1 -0.1 -4.1
  Nov 27, 2021 323   McNeese St. W 83-75 72%     3 - 1 -2.3 -8.5 +5.0
  Dec 05, 2021 62   Belmont L 73-85 18%     3 - 2 -6.2 -1.9 -3.7
  Dec 08, 2021 339   @ Alabama St. W 74-64 71%     4 - 2 +0.4 -10.3 +9.6
  Dec 11, 2021 334   Alabama A&M W 52-50 82%     5 - 2 -11.9 -17.3 +5.7
  Dec 18, 2021 214   Kennesaw St. W 85-84 53%     6 - 2 -3.9 +18.7 -22.5
  Dec 21, 2021 109   @ Mississippi W 75-73 15%     7 - 2 +8.8 +13.1 -4.2
  Dec 29, 2021 102   @ Furman L 49-81 14%     7 - 3 0 - 1 -24.6 -28.2 +7.6
  Jan 05, 2022 196   @ Mercer L 80-83 31%     7 - 4 0 - 2 -2.0 +3.5 -5.4
  Jan 08, 2022 312   Western Carolina W 85-60 75%     8 - 4 1 - 2 +13.8 -0.6 +12.8
  Jan 12, 2022 115   @ Wofford L 64-87 17%     8 - 5 1 - 3 -16.7 -1.5 -17.3
  Jan 15, 2022 174   East Tennessee St. L 85-88 46%     8 - 6 1 - 4 -6.0 +9.8 -15.8
  Jan 20, 2022 197   @ VMI L 79-84 30%    
  Jan 22, 2022 175   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-70 26%    
  Jan 26, 2022 196   Mercer L 76-77 52%    
  Jan 29, 2022 312   @ Western Carolina W 82-80 56%    
  Feb 02, 2022 100   Chattanooga L 71-78 27%    
  Feb 05, 2022 283   @ The Citadel W 82-81 50%    
  Feb 09, 2022 115   Wofford L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 12, 2022 174   @ East Tennessee St. L 72-78 27%    
  Feb 17, 2022 197   VMI L 81-82 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 175   UNC Greensboro L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 23, 2022 102   Furman L 74-80 29%    
  Feb 26, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 68-80 13%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 5 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.9 1.0 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.7 7.1 2.5 0.1 15.2 7th
8th 0.5 4.8 12.3 12.0 4.0 0.3 0.0 33.8 8th
9th 0.4 4.6 9.3 6.5 1.8 0.1 22.7 9th
10th 0.9 4.0 5.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 14.2 10th
Total 0.9 4.4 10.8 17.2 19.9 18.8 13.8 8.3 4.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 11.5% 0.0    0.0
11-7 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 23.1% 23.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 3.5% 3.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 1.5% 8.3% 8.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
9-9 4.1% 4.7% 4.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.9
8-10 8.3% 2.9% 2.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.0
7-11 13.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.6
6-12 18.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 18.6
5-13 19.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 19.8
4-14 17.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 17.1
3-15 10.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.8
2-16 4.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.4
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%