Furman
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#102
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#120
Pace66.7#239
Improvement+2.5#70

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#56
First Shot+2.5#102
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#48
Layup/Dunks-2.1#264
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#7
Freethrows-1.9#307
Improvement-1.1#246

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#160
First Shot-0.4#177
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#118
Layups/Dunks-3.9#312
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#54
Freethrows+1.8#67
Improvement+3.6#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.2% 31.5% 23.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.8% 98.8%
Conference Champion 41.4% 55.8% 30.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round27.1% 31.4% 23.8%
Second Round4.4% 5.2% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.3% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Away) - 43.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 36 - 58 - 10
Quad 413 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 86   @ Louisville W 80-72 OT 34%     1 - 0 +17.1 +4.5 +11.7
  Nov 15, 2021 62   @ Belmont L 89-95 OT 28%     1 - 1 +4.8 +7.1 -1.4
  Nov 19, 2021 285   Radford W 81-64 91%     2 - 1 +7.3 +5.6 +2.0
  Nov 21, 2021 148   Navy L 66-77 74%     2 - 2 -12.7 -4.6 -8.2
  Nov 27, 2021 311   @ South Carolina Upstate W 87-77 85%     3 - 2 +3.9 +12.7 -8.3
  Nov 30, 2021 275   @ High Point W 74-70 2OT 80%     4 - 2 +0.1 -8.6 +8.2
  Dec 03, 2021 203   College of Charleston W 91-88 OT 81%     5 - 2 -1.3 +1.8 -3.6
  Dec 07, 2021 183   @ Winthrop L 80-85 62%     5 - 3 -3.3 +8.6 -12.2
  Dec 10, 2021 185   Appalachian St. W 73-65 78%     6 - 3 +4.6 +3.8 +1.3
  Dec 14, 2021 34   @ North Carolina L 61-74 19%     6 - 4 +1.0 -0.8 +0.4
  Dec 17, 2021 48   @ Mississippi St. L 66-69 24%     6 - 5 +9.4 +4.9 +4.1
  Dec 21, 2021 299   Presbyterian W 75-61 92%     7 - 5 +3.5 +8.7 -3.3
  Dec 29, 2021 237   Samford W 81-49 86%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +25.4 -7.5 +28.9
  Jan 01, 2022 197   @ VMI L 67-76 65%     8 - 6 1 - 1 -8.0 -3.4 -5.4
  Jan 05, 2022 175   @ UNC Greensboro W 58-54 61%     9 - 6 2 - 1 +6.0 +1.9 +4.9
  Jan 08, 2022 196   Mercer W 81-66 80%     10 - 6 3 - 1 +11.0 +5.0 +6.2
  Jan 12, 2022 174   East Tennessee St. W 78-69 77%     11 - 6 4 - 1 +6.0 +3.1 +3.1
  Jan 15, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 69-71 39%     11 - 7 4 - 2 +5.8 +9.3 -3.8
  Jan 19, 2022 312   Western Carolina W 88-50 92%     12 - 7 5 - 2 +26.8 +10.3 +17.6
  Jan 22, 2022 115   @ Wofford L 70-71 44%    
  Jan 26, 2022 197   VMI W 80-71 81%    
  Jan 29, 2022 196   @ Mercer W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 02, 2022 283   The Citadel W 83-69 92%    
  Feb 05, 2022 175   UNC Greensboro W 67-59 78%    
  Feb 07, 2022 174   @ East Tennessee St. W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 12, 2022 100   Chattanooga W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 16, 2022 312   @ Western Carolina W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 115   Wofford W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 23, 2022 237   @ Samford W 80-74 71%    
  Feb 26, 2022 283   @ The Citadel W 80-71 79%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.7 10.7 14.8 10.3 2.8 41.4 1st
2nd 0.2 3.4 11.6 12.4 5.5 0.8 33.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 6.5 5.2 0.8 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.0 2.5 0.3 6.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.2 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.2 12.7 19.8 23.9 20.3 11.0 2.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.8    2.6 0.2
15-3 92.9% 10.3    8.5 1.8
14-4 72.8% 14.8    9.7 4.9 0.2
13-5 44.8% 10.7    4.2 5.1 1.4 0.1
12-6 13.5% 2.7    0.3 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 41.4% 41.4 25.3 13.1 2.5 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.8% 43.6% 43.0% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 1.1%
15-3 11.0% 39.4% 39.3% 0.1% 12.7 0.1 1.5 2.4 0.3 6.7 0.2%
14-4 20.3% 33.2% 33.2% 13.0 0.0 1.1 4.4 1.1 0.0 13.6
13-5 23.9% 28.7% 28.7% 13.3 0.5 4.1 2.1 0.2 17.1
12-6 19.8% 23.2% 23.2% 13.6 0.1 2.0 2.1 0.3 15.2
11-7 12.7% 17.5% 17.5% 13.8 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 10.5
10-8 6.2% 12.8% 12.8% 14.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 5.4
9-9 2.4% 12.3% 12.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
8-10 0.6% 7.9% 7.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.1% 7.8% 7.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.2% 27.1% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.9 14.0 7.5 1.2 0.0 72.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 11.7 0.5 2.8 4.8 26.8 48.0 17.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 1.8% 11.5 0.9 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 0.9% 14.0 0.9