Chattanooga
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#100
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#81
Pace62.0#333
Improvement-1.9#260

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#48
First Shot+1.9#118
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#8
Layup/Dunks+0.8#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#110
Freethrows-0.4#212
Improvement-3.0#332

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#167
First Shot+1.4#130
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#296
Layups/Dunks+0.2#177
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#50
Freethrows+0.0#187
Improvement+1.1#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.8% 34.1% 28.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 1.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.3 12.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.9% 98.4%
Conference Champion 60.0% 69.7% 44.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round31.5% 33.7% 28.1%
Second Round6.4% 7.2% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.6% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Away) - 60.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 13 - 3
Quad 38 - 311 - 6
Quad 412 - 323 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 131   @ Loyola Marymount W 75-64 52%     1 - 0 +15.9 +13.1 +4.0
  Nov 14, 2021 249   UNC Asheville W 75-45 88%     2 - 0 +22.8 +6.5 +19.9
  Nov 16, 2021 290   Tennessee Tech W 69-62 92%     3 - 0 -3.1 +3.7 -5.7
  Nov 20, 2021 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 56-54 33%     4 - 0 +11.9 +5.1 +7.2
  Nov 27, 2021 203   College of Charleston L 66-68 82%     4 - 1 -6.3 -7.1 +0.8
  Nov 30, 2021 290   @ Tennessee Tech W 82-65 84%     5 - 1 +11.9 +9.7 +2.6
  Dec 05, 2021 280   @ Lipscomb W 85-64 82%     6 - 1 +16.6 +11.1 +6.7
  Dec 08, 2021 249   @ UNC Asheville W 78-73 76%     7 - 1 +2.8 +16.8 -13.1
  Dec 15, 2021 62   @ Belmont L 68-76 30%     7 - 2 +2.8 +1.4 +1.1
  Dec 18, 2021 51   @ Murray St. L 76-87 27%     7 - 3 +0.8 +6.1 -4.9
  Dec 22, 2021 159   Middle Tennessee W 77-65 77%     8 - 3 +9.7 +8.2 +2.0
  Dec 30, 2021 174   East Tennessee St. W 82-52 79%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +27.0 +16.6 +14.4
  Jan 05, 2022 115   @ Wofford W 75-67 46%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +14.3 +5.0 +9.4
  Jan 08, 2022 283   The Citadel W 85-67 91%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +8.5 +3.0 +4.9
  Jan 12, 2022 312   @ Western Carolina L 59-70 86%     11 - 4 3 - 1 -17.2 -18.4 +1.2
  Jan 15, 2022 102   Furman W 71-69 61%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +4.4 +9.5 -4.7
  Jan 20, 2022 175   @ UNC Greensboro W 63-60 61%    
  Jan 22, 2022 197   @ VMI W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 26, 2022 115   Wofford W 70-66 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 283   @ The Citadel W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 02, 2022 237   @ Samford W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 05, 2022 196   Mercer W 74-65 82%    
  Feb 07, 2022 196   @ Mercer W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 09, 2022 312   Western Carolina W 81-64 94%    
  Feb 12, 2022 102   @ Furman L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 17, 2022 175   UNC Greensboro W 65-57 80%    
  Feb 19, 2022 197   VMI W 78-69 82%    
  Feb 23, 2022 174   @ East Tennessee St. W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 26, 2022 237   Samford W 80-68 87%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.4 11.0 18.4 16.5 9.3 2.2 60.0 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 8.7 8.7 3.2 0.4 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.4 1.9 1.8 0.2 4.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.4 8.8 14.3 20.1 21.6 16.9 9.3 2.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2
16-2 100.0% 9.3    9.1 0.2
15-3 97.5% 16.5    14.7 1.9
14-4 85.2% 18.4    12.8 5.4 0.2
13-5 54.7% 11.0    4.2 5.3 1.4 0.1
12-6 17.1% 2.4    0.3 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 60.0% 60.0 43.3 13.8 2.4 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.2% 61.3% 50.6% 10.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 21.7%
16-2 9.3% 47.8% 46.3% 1.5% 11.8 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.9 2.8%
15-3 16.9% 38.8% 38.4% 0.4% 12.4 0.0 0.4 3.3 2.7 0.2 10.4 0.6%
14-4 21.6% 34.4% 34.4% 0.0% 12.7 0.1 2.7 4.2 0.4 0.0 14.2 0.0%
13-5 20.1% 30.1% 30.1% 0.0% 13.0 1.2 4.0 0.9 0.0 14.0 0.0%
12-6 14.3% 24.6% 24.6% 13.2 0.3 2.1 1.0 0.1 10.8
11-7 8.8% 18.1% 18.1% 13.3 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 7.2
10-8 4.4% 13.2% 13.2% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.8
9-9 1.7% 13.3% 13.3% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
8-10 0.5% 8.3% 8.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.8% 31.3% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.7 10.3 15.0 3.4 0.1 68.2 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 8.6 0.5 1.5 4.7 9.4 16.5 12.5 19.8 13.8 12.9 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 33.0% 11.1 3.1 3.1 15.6 11.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 16.7% 11.6 0.5 4.9 11.3