Summit League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
98 South Dakota St. 48.5%   14   13 - 4 6 - 0 23 - 6 16 - 2 +5.8      +8.9 16 -3.1 274 75.3 46 +8.1 72 +11.7 1
120 Oral Roberts 31.0%   9 - 6 6 - 1 18 - 8 15 - 3 +3.2      +4.1 71 -0.8 195 75.5 44 +2.6 131 +8.8 2
188 North Dakota St. 8.0%   9 - 6 3 - 2 15 - 11 9 - 7 -1.1      0.0 176 -1.1 206 65.6 274 +0.5 160 -4.2 3
213 Western Illinois 6.3%   10 - 6 3 - 3 17 - 11 10 - 8 -2.3      +0.1 173 -2.4 244 75.9 35 -0.1 170 -4.8 4
234 South Dakota 3.5%   8 - 7 3 - 3 14 - 12 9 - 8 -4.0      -0.5 192 -3.5 289 67.6 209 -4.0 239 -7.3 7
265 UMKC 2.1%   5 - 8 2 - 3 11 - 15 8 - 10 -5.5      -6.1 328 +0.6 149 65.6 273 -4.7 252 -7.3 8
288 St. Thomas 0.0%   5 - 8 2 - 2 10 - 16 7 - 10 -7.5      +2.1 110 -9.6 353 64.9 295 -6.3 272 -5.2 5
317 Denver 0.4%   6 - 13 3 - 5 10 - 19 7 - 11 -9.4      -4.5 300 -4.9 316 68.4 183 -9.2 305 -6.9 6
338 Nebraska Omaha 0.1%   2 - 16 2 - 6 5 - 23 5 - 13 -12.0      -3.9 280 -8.1 347 75.2 47 -15.3 341 -11.4 9
347 North Dakota 0.0%   2 - 14 0 - 5 5 - 24 3 - 15 -13.9      -3.7 275 -10.1 355 67.6 208 -15.5 342 -21.3 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
South Dakota St. 1.2 77.6 21.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oral Roberts 1.6 39.0 58.4 2.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Dakota St. 4.4 0.2 2.2 29.2 27.3 19.9 12.2 6.2 2.4 0.4 0.0
Western Illinois 3.9 0.4 3.9 45.0 23.8 13.3 8.1 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0
South Dakota 5.0 0.0 1.1 20.8 21.8 21.2 16.5 11.2 6.0 1.3 0.1
UMKC 5.4 0.0 1.1 17.2 18.2 17.8 17.7 14.0 10.4 3.1 0.6
St. Thomas 6.0 0.0 0.4 8.2 12.6 16.4 19.7 20.4 15.8 5.4 1.1
Denver 6.9 0.0 2.0 5.9 10.4 17.8 25.7 26.5 10.5 1.2
Nebraska Omaha 8.4 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.6 10.7 21.4 49.8 11.3
North Dakota 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 6.1 20.7 70.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
South Dakota St. 16 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.9 9.6 20.4 28.3 25.3 11.1
Oral Roberts 15 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.5 11.4 21.1 27.9 23.8 9.4
North Dakota St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 9.2 17.2 22.5 22.0 15.1 7.0 1.9 0.3
Western Illinois 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.4 11.7 18.8 22.6 20.4 12.2 5.1 1.3 0.2
South Dakota 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 2.9 7.7 14.7 19.9 21.5 17.3 10.0 4.1 1.1 0.2
UMKC 8 - 10 0.0 0.6 2.3 6.0 11.3 16.3 19.0 18.0 13.6 7.6 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.0
St. Thomas 7 - 11 0.2 1.1 4.5 9.5 16.2 20.7 19.6 14.7 8.6 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.0
Denver 7 - 11 1.4 7.3 16.6 24.9 22.7 16.0 7.6 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 5 - 13 5.8 17.9 27.0 24.3 15.4 6.8 2.1 0.5 0.1
North Dakota 3 - 15 6.1 18.3 26.3 23.3 14.9 7.4 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 77.6% 60.7 16.8 0.2 0.0
Oral Roberts 39.0% 22.1 16.7 0.2 0.0
North Dakota St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
South Dakota 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
UMKC 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Denver
Nebraska Omaha
North Dakota


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 48.5% 48.4% 0.1% 14   0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.8 9.4 24.0 10.9 1.1 0.0 51.5 0.1%
Oral Roberts 31.0% 31.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 7.3 13.5 8.2 1.1 69.0 0.0%
North Dakota St. 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.0 2.0 92.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.0 93.7 0.0%
South Dakota 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 96.5 0.0%
UMKC 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.7 97.9 0.0%
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Denver 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
North Dakota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 48.5% 0.1% 48.5% 9.2% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 31.0% 0.1% 31.0% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 8.0% 0.5% 7.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 6.3% 1.1% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 3.5% 1.4% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 2.1% 1.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 97.5% 1.0 2.5 97.5 0.0
2nd Round 13.0% 0.1 87.0 13.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0