South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#98
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#72
Pace75.3#46
Improvement-2.3#277

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#16
First Shot+9.9#4
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#254
Layup/Dunks+3.8#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#36
Freethrows+0.2#160
Improvement-0.5#208

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#274
First Shot-4.0#300
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#107
Layups/Dunks-2.9#283
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#196
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#327
Freethrows+3.0#14
Improvement-1.8#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.5% 49.5% 43.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 77.6% 81.4% 58.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round48.5% 49.5% 43.3%
Second Round9.2% 9.7% 6.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 2.7% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Away) - 83.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 38 - 210 - 5
Quad 415 - 225 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 117   Bradley W 81-65 68%     1 - 0 +17.0 -1.9 +16.7
  Nov 12, 2021 16   @ Alabama L 88-104 15%     1 - 1 +1.0 +10.2 -7.1
  Nov 14, 2021 162   @ Stephen F. Austin W 83-71 62%     2 - 1 +14.7 +6.7 +7.1
  Nov 17, 2021 166   Montana St. W 91-74 79%     3 - 1 +14.4 +14.9 -1.0
  Nov 22, 2021 116   Nevada W 102-75 58%     4 - 1 +30.6 +16.7 +10.3
  Nov 23, 2021 130   Washington L 76-87 63%     4 - 2 -8.6 +2.5 -10.5
  Nov 24, 2021 123   George Mason W 80-76 61%     5 - 2 +6.9 +12.6 -5.5
  Nov 30, 2021 303   Prairie View W 99-90 93%     6 - 2 -1.8 +8.4 -11.2
  Dec 08, 2021 325   @ Idaho L 84-98 90%     6 - 3 -22.1 -0.1 -21.4
  Dec 11, 2021 52   Washington St. W 77-74 37%     7 - 3 +12.2 +11.6 +0.7
  Dec 15, 2021 77   @ Missouri St. L 63-75 35%     7 - 4 -2.2 -9.5 +7.7
  Dec 20, 2021 265   UMKC W 89-57 90%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +24.0 +9.8 +12.1
  Dec 22, 2021 120   Oral Roberts W 82-76 69%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +6.7 +6.0 +0.6
  Dec 30, 2021 188   @ North Dakota St. W 90-86 66%     10 - 4 3 - 0 +5.4 +23.0 -17.4
  Jan 08, 2022 234   South Dakota W 84-65 87%     11 - 4 4 - 0 +12.5 +8.0 +4.9
  Jan 13, 2022 338   @ Nebraska Omaha W 95-86 92%     12 - 4 5 - 0 -0.5 +12.5 -13.2
  Jan 15, 2022 317   Denver W 80-62 94%     13 - 4 6 - 0 +6.1 +0.1 +5.8
  Jan 20, 2022 288   @ St. Thomas W 88-77 84%    
  Jan 22, 2022 213   @ Western Illinois W 88-82 69%    
  Jan 27, 2022 347   North Dakota W 93-71 98%    
  Jan 29, 2022 188   North Dakota St. W 82-73 83%    
  Jan 31, 2022 347   @ North Dakota W 90-73 94%    
  Feb 05, 2022 234   @ South Dakota W 84-77 73%    
  Feb 10, 2022 317   @ Denver W 86-73 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 338   Nebraska Omaha W 95-75 97%    
  Feb 17, 2022 213   Western Illinois W 90-79 85%    
  Feb 19, 2022 288   St. Thomas W 91-75 93%    
  Feb 24, 2022 120   @ Oral Roberts W 86-85 49%    
  Feb 26, 2022 265   @ UMKC W 79-70 78%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.0 12.7 25.1 25.3 11.1 77.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 6.6 7.6 3.3 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.9 9.6 20.4 28.3 25.3 11.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 11.1    11.1
17-1 100.0% 25.3    23.5 1.8
16-2 88.5% 25.1    18.0 7.1
15-3 62.6% 12.7    6.9 5.8 0.0
14-4 31.2% 3.0    1.2 1.8 0.1
13-5 11.4% 0.4    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 77.6% 77.6 60.7 16.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 11.1% 61.6% 61.1% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.6 2.6 1.2 0.0 4.2 1.3%
17-1 25.3% 54.8% 54.8% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.2 4.4 8.0 1.2 0.0 11.4 0.1%
16-2 28.3% 50.1% 50.1% 13.1 0.0 1.9 8.7 3.5 0.1 14.1
15-3 20.4% 42.1% 42.1% 13.4 0.4 4.5 3.4 0.2 0.0 11.8
14-4 9.6% 35.0% 35.0% 13.7 0.0 1.3 1.8 0.3 6.2
13-5 3.9% 31.9% 31.9% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 2.6
12-6 1.1% 32.0% 32.0% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
11-7 0.3% 21.9% 21.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.1% 10.7% 10.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 48.5% 48.4% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.8 9.4 24.0 10.9 1.1 0.0 51.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.8% 100.0% 11.4 0.1 0.9 0.7 2.0 7.7 8.6 23.4 38.4 17.5 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.4% 1.9% 11.8 0.3 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6% 0.5% 12.8 0.1 0.4