St. Thomas
Summit League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#288
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#272
Pace64.9#295
Improvement+1.0#127

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#110
First Shot+2.1#111
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#182
Layup/Dunks-4.4#323
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+14.3#1
Freethrows-4.0#357
Improvement-2.2#304

Defense
Total Defense-9.6#353
First Shot-10.5#357
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#102
Layups/Dunks-4.5#326
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#310
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#328
Freethrows+0.1#180
Improvement+3.2#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 13.5% 32.4% 9.7%
.500 or above in Conference 28.1% 54.8% 22.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 0.7% 3.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 16.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 49 - 710 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 350   @ Chicago St. L 72-77 67%     0 - 1 -17.0 -2.3 -14.9
  Nov 13, 2021 328   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 91-73 54%     1 - 1 +9.5 +11.8 -2.7
  Nov 15, 2021 215   @ Fordham L 78-84 24%     1 - 2 -5.9 +9.1 -15.0
  Nov 19, 2021 250   @ Youngstown St. L 75-79 30%     1 - 3 -6.2 +2.3 -8.7
  Nov 20, 2021 207   Niagara W 76-67 30%     2 - 3 +6.9 +14.9 -6.6
  Nov 21, 2021 273   SIU Edwardsville W 86-73 46%     3 - 3 +6.6 +17.5 -10.0
  Nov 27, 2021 160   @ Seattle L 64-81 17%     3 - 4 -14.3 -2.9 -12.5
  Dec 05, 2021 106   @ Drake L 64-74 9%     3 - 5 -3.0 -0.3 -3.7
  Dec 11, 2021 166   Montana St. L 65-72 32%     3 - 6 -9.6 -10.8 +1.5
  Dec 20, 2021 338   @ Nebraska Omaha W 80-73 58%     4 - 6 1 - 0 -2.5 +12.7 -14.1
  Dec 22, 2021 317   @ Denver L 74-75 48%     4 - 7 1 - 1 -7.9 +3.5 -11.5
  Jan 01, 2022 213   Western Illinois W 89-66 40%     5 - 7 2 - 1 +18.2 +15.0 +3.8
  Jan 06, 2022 120   Oral Roberts L 66-81 22%     5 - 8 2 - 2 -14.3 -9.0 -5.3
  Jan 20, 2022 98   South Dakota St. L 77-88 16%    
  Jan 22, 2022 234   South Dakota L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 29, 2022 213   @ Western Illinois L 74-82 23%    
  Feb 03, 2022 265   @ UMKC L 67-71 32%    
  Feb 05, 2022 120   @ Oral Roberts L 73-86 10%    
  Feb 08, 2022 265   UMKC W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 10, 2022 347   North Dakota W 80-71 81%    
  Feb 12, 2022 188   North Dakota St. L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 17, 2022 234   @ South Dakota L 71-77 27%    
  Feb 19, 2022 98   @ South Dakota St. L 75-91 7%    
  Feb 22, 2022 347   @ North Dakota W 78-74 62%    
  Feb 24, 2022 317   Denver W 75-71 68%    
  Feb 26, 2022 338   Nebraska Omaha W 82-75 76%    
Projected Record 10 - 16 7 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 6.1 4.2 0.7 0.1 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 7.5 6.3 0.9 0.0 16.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 8.4 8.7 1.2 0.0 19.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 8.0 9.3 1.8 0.0 20.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 6.2 6.6 1.4 0.0 15.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 10th
Total 0.2 1.1 4.5 9.5 16.2 20.7 19.6 14.7 8.6 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 18.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 2.1% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.3% 0.3
12-6 1.1% 1.1
11-7 3.5% 3.5
10-8 8.6% 8.6
9-9 14.7% 14.7
8-10 19.6% 19.6
7-11 20.7% 20.7
6-12 16.2% 16.2
5-13 9.5% 9.5
4-14 4.5% 4.5
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%