North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#188
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#160
Pace65.6#274
Improvement+0.1#178

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#176
First Shot-0.7#202
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#128
Layup/Dunks-3.5#306
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#183
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#109
Freethrows+1.0#98
Improvement+1.1#109

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#206
First Shot-1.4#223
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#152
Layups/Dunks-2.9#282
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#44
Freethrows+0.8#129
Improvement-1.0#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 9.4% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 89.6% 96.0% 81.6%
.500 or above in Conference 68.7% 81.8% 52.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round7.8% 9.2% 6.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Away) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 42 - 9
Quad 414 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 300   @ Cal Poly W 60-57 67%     1 - 0 -2.6 -7.5 +5.3
  Nov 15, 2021 108   @ UNLV L 62-64 22%     1 - 1 +4.8 -3.3 +8.0
  Nov 16, 2021 2   @ Arizona L 45-97 3%     1 - 2 -30.0 -17.6 -11.5
  Nov 22, 2021 171   Tarleton St. W 54-53 57%     2 - 2 -1.9 -5.9 +4.2
  Nov 27, 2021 325   Idaho W 90-73 87%     3 - 2 +3.8 +0.9 +1.7
  Nov 30, 2021 45   @ Creighton L 55-80 10%     3 - 3 -12.3 -2.4 -13.7
  Dec 07, 2021 166   @ Montana St. L 49-68 36%     3 - 4 -16.5 -19.1 +1.5
  Dec 10, 2021 296   Cal St. Northridge W 68-54 81%     4 - 4 +3.6 -4.8 +9.2
  Dec 13, 2021 169   Indiana St. W 77-70 56%     5 - 4 +4.4 +7.3 -2.6
  Dec 17, 2021 260   @ Pacific W 73-61 56%     6 - 4 +9.3 -1.0 +10.0
  Dec 22, 2021 347   North Dakota W 86-76 92%     7 - 4 1 - 0 -6.4 +3.0 -9.2
  Dec 30, 2021 98   South Dakota St. L 86-90 34%     7 - 5 1 - 1 -0.7 +14.2 -15.2
  Jan 08, 2022 338   @ Nebraska Omaha W 71-67 79%     8 - 5 2 - 1 -5.5 -17.4 +11.4
  Jan 10, 2022 317   @ Denver W 87-69 71%     9 - 5 3 - 1 +11.1 +11.3 -0.1
  Jan 15, 2022 213   Western Illinois L 79-90 OT 64%     9 - 6 3 - 2 -15.8 -8.3 -6.0
  Jan 20, 2022 265   @ UMKC W 65-63 55%    
  Jan 22, 2022 120   @ Oral Roberts L 71-78 24%    
  Jan 27, 2022 234   @ South Dakota W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 29, 2022 98   @ South Dakota St. L 73-82 17%    
  Feb 03, 2022 338   Nebraska Omaha W 81-68 90%    
  Feb 05, 2022 317   Denver W 74-63 86%    
  Feb 10, 2022 213   @ Western Illinois L 73-74 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 288   @ St. Thomas W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 17, 2022 120   Oral Roberts L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 19, 2022 265   UMKC W 68-61 76%    
  Feb 26, 2022 347   @ North Dakota W 76-66 81%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 9.0 11.6 5.8 1.0 0.0 29.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 10.7 11.3 3.2 0.2 27.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 8.2 8.9 1.7 0.1 19.9 5th
6th 0.4 4.3 6.3 1.1 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 3.4 0.8 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 9.2 17.2 22.5 22.0 15.1 7.0 1.9 0.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 36.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 3.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.3% 36.1% 36.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 1.9% 19.3% 19.3% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.6
12-6 7.0% 15.6% 15.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 5.9
11-7 15.1% 11.3% 11.3% 14.7 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 13.4
10-8 22.0% 9.1% 9.1% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.3 20.0
9-9 22.5% 6.7% 6.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.6 21.0
8-10 17.2% 5.1% 5.1% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 16.4
7-11 9.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.9
6-12 3.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.6
5-13 1.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.0 2.0 92.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.9 33.3 45.8 20.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%