Western Illinois
Summit League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#213
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#170
Pace75.9#35
Improvement-3.6#320

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#173
First Shot-0.2#184
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#155
Layup/Dunks-1.6#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#83
Freethrows+0.2#162
Improvement-1.5#272

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#244
First Shot-5.3#325
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#15
Layups/Dunks-7.5#353
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#15
Freethrows-2.6#319
Improvement-2.1#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 7.0% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 93.9% 97.4% 86.9%
.500 or above in Conference 80.5% 88.9% 63.8%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.3%
First Round5.8% 6.5% 4.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 66.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 34 - 7
Quad 414 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 140   @ Nebraska W 75-74 27%     1 - 0 +5.0 -4.5 +9.4
  Nov 20, 2021 94   @ DePaul L 80-84 16%     1 - 1 +4.5 +0.7 +4.3
  Nov 22, 2021 264   @ Northern Kentucky W 69-67 53%     2 - 1 -1.0 -9.9 +8.8
  Nov 24, 2021 263   @ Eastern Michigan L 68-72 52%     2 - 2 -6.9 -10.9 +4.4
  Nov 27, 2021 163   Miami (OH) W 79-67 50%     3 - 2 +9.5 +7.5 +2.8
  Dec 01, 2021 242   Ball St. W 93-80 67%     4 - 2 +6.0 +10.6 -5.3
  Dec 04, 2021 324   Tennessee Martin W 81-64 84%     5 - 2 +4.0 +2.5 +1.7
  Dec 05, 2021 333   @ Central Michigan W 97-70 73%     6 - 2 +18.2 +16.2 +1.8
  Dec 18, 2021 352   Eastern Illinois W 71-54 92%     7 - 2 -1.0 -3.6 +3.3
  Dec 20, 2021 317   @ Denver W 84-80 OT 67%     8 - 2 1 - 0 -2.9 -3.3 -0.1
  Dec 22, 2021 338   @ Nebraska Omaha L 78-84 75%     8 - 3 1 - 1 -15.5 -5.4 -9.8
  Dec 29, 2021 21   @ Iowa L 71-92 6%     8 - 4 -5.3 -0.7 -3.9
  Jan 01, 2022 288   @ St. Thomas L 66-89 60%     8 - 5 1 - 2 -28.0 -13.3 -15.3
  Jan 08, 2022 120   Oral Roberts L 86-87 38%     8 - 6 1 - 3 -0.3 +2.9 -3.1
  Jan 13, 2022 347   @ North Dakota W 73-68 80%     9 - 6 2 - 3 -6.4 -10.2 +3.8
  Jan 15, 2022 188   @ North Dakota St. W 90-79 OT 36%     10 - 6 3 - 3 +12.4 +5.0 +5.9
  Jan 20, 2022 234   South Dakota W 78-74 67%    
  Jan 22, 2022 98   South Dakota St. L 82-88 31%    
  Jan 29, 2022 288   St. Thomas W 82-74 77%    
  Jan 31, 2022 265   UMKC W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 03, 2022 120   @ Oral Roberts L 77-85 21%    
  Feb 05, 2022 265   @ UMKC W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 10, 2022 188   North Dakota St. W 74-73 56%    
  Feb 12, 2022 347   North Dakota W 84-70 91%    
  Feb 17, 2022 98   @ South Dakota St. L 79-90 15%    
  Feb 19, 2022 234   @ South Dakota L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 24, 2022 338   Nebraska Omaha W 87-75 88%    
  Feb 26, 2022 317   Denver W 80-70 83%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 11.0 17.2 10.8 3.4 0.3 45.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 9.2 10.3 2.8 0.2 23.8 4th
5th 0.3 5.3 6.4 1.2 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 4.4 1.0 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.4 11.7 18.8 22.6 20.4 12.2 5.1 1.3 0.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 73.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 18.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-5 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 6.7% 6.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.3% 14.8% 14.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-5 5.1% 15.0% 15.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 4.3
12-6 12.2% 10.5% 10.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 10.9
11-7 20.4% 7.6% 7.6% 15.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 18.9
10-8 22.6% 5.4% 5.4% 15.7 0.0 0.4 0.8 21.4
9-9 18.8% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 18.0
8-10 11.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.4
7-11 5.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 5.3
6-12 1.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.0 93.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%