South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#234
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#239
Pace67.6#209
Improvement+3.1#55

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#192
First Shot-0.7#204
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#163
Layup/Dunks-4.8#330
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#237
Freethrows+2.9#17
Improvement+4.4#11

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#289
First Shot-5.3#327
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#46
Layups/Dunks-2.3#263
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#242
Freethrows-2.0#300
Improvement-1.3#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.7% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 62.3% 81.3% 52.8%
.500 or above in Conference 54.1% 75.8% 43.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
First Round2.8% 4.0% 2.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Away) - 33.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 413 - 514 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 244   Air Force W 59-53 52%     1 - 0 +1.5 -9.6 +11.5
  Nov 14, 2021 106   @ Drake L 50-99 15%     1 - 1 -42.0 -21.7 -19.0
  Nov 19, 2021 240   Southern W 71-68 61%     2 - 1 -3.8 -5.1 +1.3
  Nov 21, 2021 308   Tennessee St. W 83-66 75%     3 - 1 +6.1 +1.2 +4.4
  Nov 27, 2021 140   @ Nebraska L 70-83 22%     3 - 2 -9.0 -4.0 -4.4
  Nov 30, 2021 287   @ San Jose St. L 52-61 53%     3 - 3 -13.7 -18.0 +3.1
  Dec 07, 2021 209   @ Northern Colorado L 69-74 34%     3 - 4 -4.7 -5.2 +0.4
  Dec 11, 2021 319   Northern Arizona W 76-71 OT 78%     4 - 4 -7.3 -7.7 +0.1
  Dec 15, 2021 192   Bellarmine W 78-64 50%     5 - 4 +10.1 +5.3 +5.7
  Dec 20, 2021 120   Oral Roberts L 73-82 32%     5 - 5 0 - 1 -8.3 -1.3 -7.1
  Dec 22, 2021 265   UMKC L 57-68 65%     5 - 6 0 - 2 -19.0 -8.4 -12.1
  Jan 08, 2022 98   @ South Dakota St. L 65-84 13%     5 - 7 0 - 3 -10.7 -8.5 -2.6
  Jan 10, 2022 347   @ North Dakota W 75-68 76%     6 - 7 1 - 3 -4.4 -2.6 -1.3
  Jan 13, 2022 317   Denver W 80-71 77%     7 - 7 2 - 3 -2.9 +7.3 -9.5
  Jan 15, 2022 338   Nebraska Omaha W 105-70 84%     8 - 7 3 - 3 +20.5 +20.9 -1.1
  Jan 20, 2022 213   @ Western Illinois L 74-78 33%    
  Jan 22, 2022 288   @ St. Thomas W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 27, 2022 188   North Dakota St. L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 29, 2022 347   North Dakota W 79-67 88%    
  Feb 05, 2022 98   South Dakota St. L 77-84 27%    
  Feb 10, 2022 338   @ Nebraska Omaha W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 12, 2022 317   @ Denver W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 17, 2022 288   St. Thomas W 77-71 73%    
  Feb 19, 2022 213   Western Illinois W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 24, 2022 265   @ UMKC L 65-66 44%    
  Feb 26, 2022 120   @ Oral Roberts L 72-82 17%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 9 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 7.1 7.9 3.5 0.7 0.0 20.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 9.2 8.8 1.9 0.1 21.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 8.9 9.3 1.4 0.1 21.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 6.4 7.9 1.4 0.0 16.5 6th
7th 0.4 3.6 5.9 1.2 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 3.0 0.9 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.9 7.7 14.7 19.9 21.5 17.3 10.0 4.1 1.1 0.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 8.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 18.3% 18.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 1.1% 9.3% 9.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
12-6 4.1% 8.1% 8.1% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.7
11-7 10.0% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 9.3
10-8 17.3% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 16.5
9-9 21.5% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.1 0.7 20.8
8-10 19.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 19.5
7-11 14.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 14.4
6-12 7.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.6
5-13 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-14 0.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 96.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%
Lose Out 0.1%