North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.9#347
Expected Predictive Rating-15.5#342
Pace67.6#208
Improvement-1.6#246

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#275
First Shot-4.2#302
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#136
Layup/Dunks-2.3#269
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#121
Freethrows-0.7#239
Improvement-0.5#216

Defense
Total Defense-10.1#355
First Shot-10.9#358
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#113
Layups/Dunks-7.4#352
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#301
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#233
Freethrows-0.4#221
Improvement-1.0#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 84.2% 64.8% 84.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Away) - 3.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 43 - 145 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 269   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 60-75 30%     0 - 1 -23.3 -18.1 -4.8
  Nov 15, 2021 178   Montana W 79-77 16%     1 - 1 -1.1 +8.6 -9.6
  Nov 19, 2021 189   Troy W 74-72 12%     2 - 1 +0.7 +4.5 -3.8
  Nov 20, 2021 151   @ Florida Atlantic L 79-98 6%     2 - 2 -15.8 +7.8 -23.9
  Nov 21, 2021 324   Tennessee Martin L 72-77 37%     2 - 3 -15.5 -11.0 -4.2
  Nov 24, 2021 252   @ Florida International L 56-65 14%     2 - 4 -11.4 -9.2 -3.2
  Nov 28, 2021 55   @ Kansas St. L 42-84 2%     2 - 5 -30.6 -22.5 -7.8
  Dec 03, 2021 287   @ San Jose St. L 51-76 19%     2 - 6 -29.7 -23.0 -8.0
  Dec 07, 2021 236   @ California Baptist L 71-89 13%     2 - 7 -19.5 -1.5 -18.5
  Dec 11, 2021 222   Eastern Washington L 60-76 21%     2 - 8 -21.4 -17.4 -3.8
  Dec 18, 2021 297   Dixie St. L 69-78 37%     2 - 9 -19.4 -4.9 -15.1
  Dec 22, 2021 188   @ North Dakota St. L 76-86 8%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -8.6 +4.4 -13.1
  Jan 06, 2022 338   @ Nebraska Omaha L 82-98 34%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -25.5 -0.3 -24.7
  Jan 08, 2022 317   @ Denver L 74-93 25%     2 - 12 0 - 3 -25.9 -5.2 -20.0
  Jan 10, 2022 234   South Dakota L 68-75 24%     2 - 13 0 - 4 -13.5 -5.9 -8.0
  Jan 13, 2022 213   Western Illinois L 68-73 20%     2 - 14 0 - 5 -9.8 -9.9 +0.2
  Jan 20, 2022 120   @ Oral Roberts L 68-88 3%    
  Jan 22, 2022 265   @ UMKC L 62-73 14%    
  Jan 27, 2022 98   @ South Dakota St. L 71-93 2%    
  Jan 29, 2022 234   @ South Dakota L 67-79 12%    
  Jan 31, 2022 98   South Dakota St. L 73-90 6%    
  Feb 03, 2022 317   Denver L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 338   Nebraska Omaha W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 10, 2022 288   @ St. Thomas L 71-80 19%    
  Feb 12, 2022 213   @ Western Illinois L 70-84 9%    
  Feb 17, 2022 265   UMKC L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 19, 2022 120   Oral Roberts L 71-86 10%    
  Feb 22, 2022 288   St. Thomas L 74-78 38%    
  Feb 26, 2022 188   North Dakota St. L 66-76 19%    
Projected Record 5 - 24 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 3.3 1.0 0.1 6.1 8th
9th 1.5 6.8 9.0 3.2 0.2 20.7 9th
10th 6.1 18.3 24.8 16.4 4.2 0.3 70.1 10th
Total 6.1 18.3 26.3 23.3 14.9 7.4 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-12 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 7.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.4
4-14 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
3-15 23.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.3
2-16 26.3% 26.3
1-17 18.3% 18.3
0-18 6.1% 6.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.1%