Preseason Rankings
Harvard
Ivy League
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#77
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.1#304
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#104
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#51
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 1.9% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 1.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.5% 54.6% 39.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.3% 9.6% 2.6%
Average Seed 11.9 11.5 12.8
.500 or above 91.1% 96.1% 84.1%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 96.0% 89.8%
Conference Champion 49.3% 54.9% 41.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 1.0%
First Four2.3% 2.5% 1.9%
First Round47.4% 53.3% 39.0%
Second Round14.0% 17.6% 8.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.8% 6.3% 2.7%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.9% 0.7%
Final Four0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Home) - 58.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.2 - 1.40.2 - 1.4
Quad 1b0.5 - 1.00.7 - 2.5
Quad 22.0 - 2.12.7 - 4.6
Quad 36.2 - 2.68.9 - 7.2
Quad 48.9 - 1.017.8 - 8.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 70   Northeastern L 68-69 59%    
  Nov 13, 2018 154   @ Massachusetts W 71-65 61%    
  Nov 16, 2018 103   @ Rhode Island W 69-66 49%    
  Nov 21, 2018 137   @ San Francisco W 68-64 55%    
  Nov 24, 2018 59   @ St. Mary's L 65-67 33%    
  Nov 28, 2018 206   Holy Cross W 67-58 86%    
  Dec 01, 2018 284   @ Siena W 72-59 82%    
  Dec 08, 2018 124   @ Vermont W 67-63 53%    
  Dec 22, 2018 208   George Washington W 70-60 86%    
  Dec 29, 2018 272   Mercer W 72-59 86%    
  Jan 02, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 68-79 11%    
  Jan 12, 2019 276   @ Dartmouth W 73-60 80%    
  Jan 21, 2019 305   @ Howard W 80-65 84%    
  Jan 26, 2019 276   Dartmouth W 73-60 90%    
  Feb 01, 2019 122   Yale W 71-67 71%    
  Feb 02, 2019 207   Brown W 77-67 86%    
  Feb 08, 2019 229   Columbia W 78-67 88%    
  Feb 09, 2019 248   Cornell W 77-65 89%    
  Feb 15, 2019 145   @ Princeton W 68-63 57%    
  Feb 16, 2019 125   @ Penn W 70-66 52%    
  Feb 22, 2019 207   @ Brown W 77-67 70%    
  Feb 23, 2019 122   @ Yale W 71-67 53%    
  Mar 01, 2019 125   Penn W 70-66 71%    
  Mar 02, 2019 145   Princeton W 68-63 76%    
  Mar 08, 2019 248   @ Cornell W 77-65 76%    
  Mar 09, 2019 229   @ Columbia W 78-67 74%    
Projected Record 17.8 - 8.2 10.3 - 3.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.1 11.3 14.6 12.8 5.8 49.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.2 8.7 6.1 1.6 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.4 5.3 2.2 0.2 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.9 3.0 0.8 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.5 8.7 12.0 15.0 17.6 16.2 12.8 5.8 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 5.8    5.8
13-1 100.0% 12.8    12.3 0.5
12-2 90.1% 14.6    11.7 2.9 0.0
11-3 64.4% 11.3    6.4 4.4 0.5 0.0
10-4 27.2% 4.1    1.1 1.9 1.0 0.1
9-5 5.7% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 49.3% 49.3 37.2 9.9 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 5.8% 91.3% 79.2% 12.1% 8.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 58.1%
13-1 12.8% 80.8% 71.7% 9.1% 10.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.5 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 32.2%
12-2 16.2% 65.6% 59.4% 6.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.1 3.6 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.6 15.1%
11-3 17.6% 51.2% 48.5% 2.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.9 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.1 8.6 5.3%
10-4 15.0% 40.6% 39.7% 0.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 8.9 1.5%
9-5 12.0% 29.8% 29.8% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.2 8.4 0.0%
8-6 8.7% 24.1% 24.1% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 6.6
7-7 5.5% 18.2% 18.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 4.5
6-8 3.4% 11.8% 11.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.0
5-9 1.8% 7.3% 7.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
4-10 0.9% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
3-11 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 48.5% 45.1% 3.5% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.6 2.8 6.2 11.4 9.9 6.8 3.7 1.6 51.5 6.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.8 17.3 18.7 40.9 11.6 11.2 0.2