Gonzaga
West Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.3#3
Achievement Rating+20.6#13
Pace76.7#48
Improvement-4.5#351

Offense
Total Offense+13.9#1
First Shot+14.2#1
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#186
Layup/Dunks+7.5#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#78
Freethrows+3.6#21
Improvement-2.3#329

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#61
First Shot+5.1#38
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#229
Layups/Dunks+3.2#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#149
Freethrows+2.9#36
Improvement-2.2#321
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 16.2% 16.2% 3.4%
Top 4 Seed 71.7% 71.9% 43.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.6% 99.6% 98.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.7% 98.7% 96.4%
Average Seed 3.5 3.5 5.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 83.6% 83.7% 70.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round99.5% 99.5% 98.3%
Second Round87.4% 87.4% 79.3%
Sweet Sixteen61.1% 61.2% 43.1%
Elite Eight36.6% 36.7% 25.9%
Final Four20.7% 20.7% 13.8%
Championship Game11.4% 11.4% 3.4%
National Champion6.0% 6.0% 1.7%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 248   Idaho St. W 120-79 98%     1 - 0 +32.9 +25.2 +2.6
  Nov 10, 2018 220   Texas Southern W 104-67 98%     2 - 0 +30.6 +11.8 +13.3
  Nov 15, 2018 86   Texas A&M W 94-71 91%     3 - 0 +26.2 +14.7 +9.4
  Nov 19, 2018 83   Illinois W 84-78 87%     4 - 0 +12.2 +5.6 +6.0
  Nov 20, 2018 51   Arizona W 91-74 80%     5 - 0 +26.6 +16.2 +8.9
  Nov 21, 2018 1   Duke W 89-87 32%     6 - 0 +25.1 +22.8 +2.2
  Nov 26, 2018 204   North Dakota St. W 102-60 98%     7 - 0 +36.6 +22.5 +13.2
  Dec 01, 2018 41   @ Creighton W 103-92 68%     8 - 0 +24.5 +25.3 -1.6
  Dec 05, 2018 54   Washington W 81-79 87%     9 - 0 +8.1 +15.6 -7.4
  Dec 09, 2018 7   Tennessee L 73-76 65%     9 - 1 +11.5 +8.4 +3.0
  Dec 15, 2018 2   @ North Carolina L 90-103 37%     9 - 2 +8.7 +9.6 +1.3
  Dec 18, 2018 251   Texas Arlington W 93-66 99%    
  Dec 21, 2018 264   Denver W 94-67 99%    
  Dec 28, 2018 319   North Alabama W 92-61 99.8%   
  Dec 31, 2018 196   Cal St. Bakersfield W 87-64 99%    
  Jan 05, 2019 261   Santa Clara W 91-64 99%    
  Jan 10, 2019 163   Pacific W 90-69 98%    
  Jan 12, 2019 43   @ San Francisco W 80-75 69%    
  Jan 17, 2019 119   Loyola Marymount W 83-65 95%    
  Jan 19, 2019 290   @ Portland W 93-70 98%    
  Jan 24, 2019 261   @ Santa Clara W 88-67 97%    
  Jan 31, 2019 72   @ BYU W 91-83 78%    
  Feb 02, 2019 70   San Diego W 85-71 90%    
  Feb 07, 2019 43   San Francisco W 83-72 86%    
  Feb 09, 2019 53   St. Mary's W 84-72 86%    
  Feb 14, 2019 119   @ Loyola Marymount W 80-68 85%    
  Feb 16, 2019 70   @ San Diego W 82-74 77%    
  Feb 21, 2019 230   Pepperdine W 97-71 99%    
  Feb 23, 2019 72   BYU W 94-80 91%    
  Feb 28, 2019 163   @ Pacific W 87-72 91%    
  Mar 02, 2019 53   @ St. Mary's W 81-75 71%    
Projected Record 27.1 - 3.9 14.1 - 1.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.8 11.9 23.5 28.2 17.1 83.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.9 4.4 1.2 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 3.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.2 8.6 16.4 24.7 28.2 17.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 17.1    17.1
15-1 100.0% 28.2    27.6 0.6
14-2 95.2% 23.5    19.7 3.8 0.0
13-3 72.5% 11.9    6.8 4.5 0.6 0.0
12-4 32.1% 2.8    0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1
11-5 4.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 83.6% 83.6 71.9 10.2 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 17.1% 100.0% 77.2% 22.8% 1.4 11.6 4.7 0.7 0.1 100.0%
15-1 28.2% 100.0% 69.1% 30.9% 2.3 4.5 13.6 7.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-2 24.7% 99.9% 64.6% 35.3% 3.7 0.1 3.2 8.9 7.5 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8%
13-3 16.4% 99.9% 60.4% 39.4% 5.0 0.0 1.5 4.9 4.7 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-4 8.6% 98.8% 50.8% 48.0% 6.2 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.6%
11-5 3.2% 96.8% 38.0% 58.9% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.9%
10-6 1.3% 91.6% 26.7% 64.9% 8.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 88.5%
9-7 0.4% 86.1% 27.8% 58.3% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 80.8%
8-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 99.6% 64.6% 34.9% 3.5 16.2 21.5 18.7 15.4 10.3 7.5 5.1 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 98.7%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.0% 100.0% 1.2 78.5 20.2 1.2 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1% 100.0% 1.7 37.7 50.7 10.6 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6% 100.0% 1.8 32.1 54.1 13.2 0.6