Texas
Big 12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#27
Achievement Rating+10.5#52
Pace64.2#308
Improvement+1.3#125

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#29
First Shot+6.2#26
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#139
Layup/Dunks+1.9#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#57
Freethrows+0.5#140
Improvement+6.1#7

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#30
First Shot+6.1#28
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#171
Layups/Dunks+6.8#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#178
Freethrows+1.7#68
Improvement-4.8#343
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.7% 96.9% 84.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.9% 96.7% 83.0%
Average Seed 8.0 7.6 8.4
.500 or above 96.3% 100.0% 93.3%
.500 or above in Conference 75.0% 92.6% 61.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.8% 1.5% 5.6%
First Round88.1% 96.2% 81.8%
Second Round50.3% 57.7% 44.4%
Sweet Sixteen14.2% 17.5% 11.6%
Elite Eight5.7% 7.2% 4.5%
Final Four1.8% 2.2% 1.4%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 43.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 296   Eastern Illinois W 71-59 97%     1 - 0 +1.5 -11.1 +12.2
  Nov 09, 2018 58   Arkansas W 73-71 69%     2 - 0 +9.9 -4.1 +13.8
  Nov 12, 2018 157   Louisiana Monroe W 65-55 92%     3 - 0 +7.5 -11.4 +19.3
  Nov 16, 2018 278   The Citadel W 97-69 97%     4 - 0 +18.6 +4.6 +10.7
  Nov 22, 2018 6   North Carolina W 92-89 26%     5 - 0 +22.7 +15.8 +6.5
  Nov 23, 2018 4   Michigan St. L 68-78 24%     5 - 1 +10.2 +3.3 +7.2
  Nov 30, 2018 135   Radford L 59-62 89%     5 - 2 -3.6 -14.4 +10.8
  Dec 05, 2018 47   Virginia Commonwealth L 53-54 73%     5 - 3 +5.6 -7.5 +13.0
  Dec 09, 2018 10   Purdue W 72-68 47%     6 - 3 +17.8 +7.6 +10.5
  Dec 15, 2018 102   Grand Canyon W 98-60 85%     7 - 3 +40.1 +25.8 +14.2
  Dec 21, 2018 80   Providence L 65-71 81%     7 - 4 -2.5 -6.6 +4.3
  Dec 28, 2018 175   Texas Arlington W 76-56 93%     8 - 4 +16.7 +11.6 +6.9
  Jan 02, 2019 25   @ Kansas St. W 67-47 38%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +36.0 +19.2 +21.0
  Jan 05, 2019 105   West Virginia W 61-54 85%     10 - 4 2 - 0 +8.8 +6.6 +4.2
  Jan 08, 2019 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 58-61 66%     10 - 5 2 - 1 +5.6 -6.3 +11.7
  Jan 12, 2019 9   Texas Tech L 62-68 45%     10 - 6 2 - 2 +8.2 +6.4 +1.2
  Jan 14, 2019 11   @ Kansas L 78-80 27%     10 - 7 2 - 3 +17.2 +24.1 -7.1
  Jan 19, 2019 34   Oklahoma W 75-72 65%     11 - 7 3 - 3 +11.8 +16.0 -3.9
  Jan 23, 2019 37   @ TCU L 61-65 46%     11 - 8 3 - 4 +10.0 -5.0 +15.0
  Jan 26, 2019 113   @ Georgia L 88-98 72%     11 - 9 -3.2 +8.1 -10.2
  Jan 29, 2019 11   Kansas W 73-63 47%     12 - 9 4 - 4 +23.7 +15.6 +9.1
  Feb 02, 2019 12   @ Iowa St. L 60-65 28%     12 - 10 4 - 5 +14.0 +0.4 +13.1
  Feb 06, 2019 33   Baylor W 84-72 65%     13 - 10 5 - 5 +20.9 +18.4 +3.1
  Feb 09, 2019 105   @ West Virginia W 75-53 70%     14 - 10 6 - 5 +29.4 +16.4 +16.1
  Feb 12, 2019 25   Kansas St. L 64-71 59%     14 - 11 6 - 6 +3.5 +10.7 -8.4
  Feb 16, 2019 86   Oklahoma St. W 69-57 82%     15 - 11 7 - 6 +15.1 +9.2 +8.0
  Feb 23, 2019 34   @ Oklahoma L 69-70 44%    
  Feb 27, 2019 33   @ Baylor L 66-68 43%    
  Mar 02, 2019 12   Iowa St. L 71-72 49%    
  Mar 04, 2019 9   @ Texas Tech L 60-67 26%    
  Mar 09, 2019 37   TCU W 72-68 67%    
Projected Record 17.3 - 13.7 9.3 - 8.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.3 0.9 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 0.8 3.9 3rd
4th 0.1 4.2 6.2 0.2 10.7 4th
5th 0.6 10.3 18.4 2.7 32.1 5th
6th 1.1 14.7 22.2 4.7 0.0 42.8 6th
7th 2.9 4.6 0.5 8.1 7th
8th 0.9 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 4.9 20.1 33.2 27.5 12.2 2.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 10.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.2% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.2% 99.9% 10.8% 89.1% 6.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 4.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 27.5% 99.6% 8.6% 91.0% 7.5 0.1 0.7 3.7 9.4 9.7 3.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
9-9 33.2% 97.6% 6.6% 91.0% 8.2 0.0 0.1 1.3 6.0 12.4 9.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 97.4%
8-10 20.1% 73.0% 4.7% 68.3% 9.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 4.7 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.4 71.7%
7-11 4.9% 19.2% 3.4% 15.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.9 16.4%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 89.7% 7.3% 82.4% 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.5 9.1 20.8 25.9 17.4 7.6 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.3 88.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 3.4 6.8 56.1 32.4 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 5.3 0.6 15.7 42.3 36.4 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 5.8 0.1 4.9 31.4 44.7 17.9 1.0
Lose Out 1.4%