Purdue
Big Ten
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.6#10
Achievement Rating+17.7#17
Pace65.6#272
Improvement+3.4#49

Offense
Total Offense+11.8#4
First Shot+8.6#6
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#11
Layup/Dunks+3.5#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#4
Freethrows+1.5#74
Improvement+1.1#127

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#52
First Shot+5.3#42
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#237
Layups/Dunks+3.5#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#226
Freethrows+1.2#94
Improvement+2.2#79
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 3.3% 4.9% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 83.2% 89.2% 72.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.3 3.1 3.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 41.2% 53.0% 19.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round88.7% 90.5% 85.5%
Sweet Sixteen56.2% 58.8% 51.4%
Elite Eight25.9% 28.3% 21.2%
Final Four10.7% 11.8% 8.7%
Championship Game4.1% 4.6% 3.2%
National Champion1.5% 1.7% 1.1%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 286   Fairfield W 90-57 98%     1 - 0 +23.2 +19.3 +5.8
  Nov 10, 2018 120   Ball St. W 84-75 92%     2 - 0 +9.9 +11.4 -1.6
  Nov 15, 2018 191   Appalachian St. W 92-70 95%     3 - 0 +20.1 +13.8 +5.8
  Nov 16, 2018 79   Davidson W 79-58 83%     4 - 0 +27.3 +16.4 +12.6
  Nov 18, 2018 17   Virginia Tech L 83-89 54%     4 - 1 +9.5 +16.8 -7.4
  Nov 23, 2018 272   Robert Morris W 84-46 98%     5 - 1 +28.9 +13.0 +17.2
  Nov 28, 2018 18   @ Florida St. L 72-73 44%     5 - 2 +17.2 +5.7 +11.5
  Dec 01, 2018 8   @ Michigan L 57-76 36%     5 - 3 0 - 1 +1.2 +4.4 -5.6
  Dec 06, 2018 21   Maryland W 62-60 68%     6 - 3 1 - 1 +13.8 +0.2 +13.7
  Dec 09, 2018 27   @ Texas L 68-72 53%     6 - 4 +11.7 +7.5 +3.9
  Dec 15, 2018 65   Notre Dame L 80-88 81%     6 - 5 -0.8 +9.3 -10.1
  Dec 20, 2018 209   Ohio W 95-67 97%     7 - 5 +22.4 +22.3 -0.2
  Dec 29, 2018 69   Belmont W 73-62 87%     8 - 5 +15.3 +1.3 +14.3
  Jan 03, 2019 26   Iowa W 86-70 73%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +26.2 +18.6 +8.5
  Jan 08, 2019 4   @ Michigan St. L 59-77 27%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +5.0 +3.1 +0.1
  Jan 11, 2019 15   @ Wisconsin W 84-80 44%     10 - 6 3 - 2 +22.3 +19.9 +2.2
  Jan 15, 2019 90   Rutgers W 89-54 90%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +37.8 +24.0 +15.3
  Jan 19, 2019 45   Indiana W 70-55 82%     12 - 6 5 - 2 +21.8 +8.3 +14.9
  Jan 23, 2019 41   @ Ohio St. W 79-67 62%     13 - 6 6 - 2 +25.5 +17.8 +8.3
  Jan 27, 2019 4   Michigan St. W 73-63 47%     14 - 6 7 - 2 +27.5 +14.0 +14.2
  Jan 31, 2019 57   @ Penn St. W 99-90 71%     15 - 6 8 - 2 +19.8 +30.4 -10.9
  Feb 03, 2019 43   Minnesota W 73-63 82%     16 - 6 9 - 2 +17.0 +9.0 +8.7
  Feb 09, 2019 35   Nebraska W 81-62 77%     17 - 6 10 - 2 +27.8 +26.7 +4.2
  Feb 12, 2019 21   @ Maryland L 56-70 47%     17 - 7 10 - 3 +3.3 -3.7 +5.9
  Feb 16, 2019 57   Penn St. W 76-64 85%     18 - 7 11 - 3 +17.3 +5.3 +11.6
  Feb 19, 2019 45   @ Indiana W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 23, 2019 35   @ Nebraska W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 27, 2019 56   Illinois W 81-70 86%    
  Mar 02, 2019 41   Ohio St. W 74-65 80%    
  Mar 05, 2019 43   @ Minnesota W 75-71 64%    
  Mar 09, 2019 63   @ Northwestern W 71-65 72%    
Projected Record 22.2 - 8.8 15.2 - 4.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 5.6 21.7 13.9 41.2 1st
2nd 0.2 6.2 22.3 8.8 37.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 9.2 2.7 13.7 3rd
4th 0.3 2.9 2.2 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.1 1.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.2 6.1 17.8 30.6 30.4 13.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 13.9    9.8 4.1
16-4 71.2% 21.7    5.3 13.7 2.7
15-5 18.2% 5.6    0.2 1.8 2.7 0.8 0.1
14-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 41.2% 41.2 15.3 19.5 5.5 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 13.9% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.1 2.7 6.9 3.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 30.4% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 2.8 0.6 10.9 13.9 4.5 0.6 0.0 100.0%
15-5 30.6% 100.0% 16.5% 83.5% 3.5 0.0 3.4 13.0 10.2 3.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 17.8% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 4.3 0.3 3.8 6.7 5.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 6.1% 100.0% 8.2% 91.8% 5.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 1.2% 99.9% 5.3% 94.6% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 0.1% 98.9% 2.2% 96.7% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 3.3 3.3 21.6 34.9 23.4 11.9 4.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.3% 100.0% 1.3 73.7 26.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.3% 100.0% 2.2 5.9 72.3 20.9 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.4% 100.0% 2.4 1.7 57.4 37.0 3.9 0.1
Lose Out 0.0% 96.8% 8.7 35.5 58.1 3.2