Big Ten
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Michigan St. 100.0%   3   22 - 9 14 - 6 22 - 9 14 - 6 +17.5      +9.4 8 +8.1 11 71.0 116 +15.4 12 +16.9 3
9 Ohio St. 99.9%   5   21 - 10 11 - 9 21 - 10 11 - 9 +15.3      +8.3 13 +7.0 25 64.9 283 +14.3 19 +13.0 7
10 Maryland 100.0%   3   24 - 7 14 - 6 24 - 7 14 - 6 +15.0      +7.9 15 +7.0 22 66.9 239 +17.6 7 +17.4 2
15 Michigan 99.6%   6   19 - 12 10 - 10 19 - 12 10 - 10 +14.3      +7.6 20 +6.7 29 69.9 148 +13.3 24 +12.3 9
21 Wisconsin 100.0%   4   21 - 10 14 - 6 21 - 10 14 - 6 +13.6      +6.0 38 +7.6 16 60.4 340 +14.5 18 +17.5 1
24 Purdue 19.4%   16 - 15 9 - 11 16 - 15 9 - 11 +13.1      +5.1 49 +7.9 12 61.8 334 +10.0 48 +10.7 11
25 Iowa 99.2%   6   20 - 11 11 - 9 20 - 11 11 - 9 +13.0      +10.4 5 +2.5 99 72.9 76 +13.6 23 +13.0 8
26 Penn St. 99.5%   6   21 - 10 11 - 9 21 - 10 11 - 9 +12.8      +5.7 42 +7.0 23 74.4 52 +13.9 21 +13.6 5
28 Minnesota 0.0%   15 - 16 8 - 12 15 - 16 8 - 12 +12.6      +6.9 27 +5.6 40 66.3 248 +9.0 57 +9.9 12
30 Rutgers 91.4%   8   19 - 11 11 - 9 19 - 11 11 - 9 +12.5      +4.1 68 +8.3 7 67.3 230 +12.2 30 +13.3 6
31 Illinois 97.6%   7   20 - 10 13 - 7 20 - 10 13 - 7 +12.3      +6.4 36 +6.0 37 65.2 274 +13.9 22 +16.4 4
34 Indiana 74.5%   11   20 - 12 9 - 11 20 - 12 9 - 11 +11.5      +4.4 61 +7.1 20 68.2 202 +12.2 29 +11.1 10
118 Northwestern 0.0%   8 - 23 3 - 17 8 - 23 3 - 17 +3.6      +2.2 112 +1.3 130 65.4 267 +0.4 167 +1.9 13
156 Nebraska 0.0%   7 - 25 2 - 18 7 - 25 2 - 18 +0.6      -0.4 191 +1.0 141 79.0 19 -1.5 196 -0.3 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Michigan St. 1.0 100.0
Ohio St. 5.0 100.0
Maryland 1.0 100.0
Michigan 9.0 100.0
Wisconsin 1.0 100.0
Purdue 10.0 100.0
Iowa 5.0 100.0
Penn St. 5.0 100.0
Minnesota 12.0 100.0
Rutgers 5.0 100.0
Illinois 4.0 100.0
Indiana 10.0 100.0
Northwestern 13.0 100.0
Nebraska 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan St. 14 - 6 100.0
Ohio St. 11 - 9 100.0
Maryland 14 - 6 100.0
Michigan 10 - 10 100.0
Wisconsin 14 - 6 100.0
Purdue 9 - 11 100.0
Iowa 11 - 9 100.0
Penn St. 11 - 9 100.0
Minnesota 8 - 12 100.0
Rutgers 11 - 9 100.0
Illinois 13 - 7 100.0
Indiana 9 - 11 100.0
Northwestern 3 - 17 100.0
Nebraska 2 - 18 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan St. 100.0% 100.0
Ohio St.
Maryland 100.0% 100.0
Michigan
Wisconsin 100.0% 100.0
Purdue
Iowa
Penn St.
Minnesota
Rutgers
Illinois
Indiana
Northwestern
Nebraska


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   6.7 29.9 49.9 13.1 0.4 100.0%
Ohio St. 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 5   0.0 3.3 21.5 49.6 23.0 2.4 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Maryland 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   3.5 21.9 46.3 26.0 2.3 100.0%
Michigan 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 6   0.2 1.2 20.0 50.1 24.1 3.7 0.3 0.0 0.4 99.6%
Wisconsin 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 4   0.1 8.3 40.0 45.8 5.7 0.1
Purdue 19.4% 0.0% 19.4% 5.2 14.2 0.1 80.6 19.4%
Iowa 99.2% 0.0% 99.2% 6   0.1 8.2 42.0 38.9 9.3 0.6 0.0 0.8 99.2%
Penn St. 99.5% 0.0% 99.5% 6   0.0 0.2 9.0 45.2 38.0 6.8 0.2 0.5 99.5%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 91.4% 0.0% 91.4% 8   0.0 0.9 7.6 21.5 32.4 20.6 7.4 0.9 8.6 91.4%
Illinois 97.6% 0.0% 97.6% 7   0.1 3.8 20.5 41.3 24.7 6.4 0.7 0.0 2.4 97.6%
Indiana 74.5% 0.0% 74.5% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 8.0 23.8 38.0 2.7 25.5 74.5%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.1% 66.2% 41.6% 23.8% 13.2% 7.1%
Ohio St. 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 78.8% 47.0% 21.9% 11.2% 5.3% 2.3%
Maryland 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 86.4% 53.1% 27.0% 13.2% 6.0% 2.5%
Michigan 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 67.8% 34.4% 17.1% 7.8% 3.7% 1.4%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 77.3% 43.2% 17.0% 7.8% 3.3% 1.3%
Purdue 19.4% 19.4% 12.3% 5.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Iowa 99.2% 0.0% 99.2% 60.5% 27.2% 12.3% 4.9% 2.0% 0.7%
Penn St. 99.5% 0.0% 99.5% 60.9% 27.5% 12.0% 4.6% 1.7% 0.7%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 91.4% 0.3% 91.3% 51.9% 18.9% 9.1% 3.7% 1.4% 0.6%
Illinois 97.6% 0.0% 97.6% 56.9% 22.1% 9.5% 3.9% 1.4% 0.4%
Indiana 74.5% 30.1% 61.5% 28.5% 10.5% 4.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.8 0.0 2.3 26.0 59.8 11.9
1st Round 100.0% 9.6 0.1 3.7 37.7 52.4 6.1
2nd Round 100.0% 6.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.7 12.6 24.9 29.0 20.1 6.8 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.7% 3.5 0.3 4.4 16.0 30.2 27.3 15.7 5.2 0.8 0.2
Elite Eight 89.6% 1.7 10.4 33.2 34.9 16.7 4.2 0.6 0.0
Final Four 63.0% 0.8 37.0 45.3 15.9 1.8 0.1
Final Game 35.3% 0.4 64.7 32.0 3.3
Champion 17.3% 0.2 82.7 17.3