Big Ten
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan St. 98.9%   1   2 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 6 16 - 4 +20.7      +11.3 3 +9.4 6 71.1 145 +17.7 16 0.0 1
9 Ohio St. 95.1%   3   3 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 14 - 6 +17.1      +7.1 26 +10.0 4 64.9 299 +22.0 6 0.0 1
10 Maryland 91.9%   3   2 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 14 - 6 +17.0      +8.8 8 +8.2 10 71.7 129 +13.4 35 0.0 1
16 Purdue 70.4%   6   1 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 13 - 7 +14.0      +8.4 10 +5.6 51 64.0 315 +2.2 146 0.0 1
26 Penn St. 67.4%   7   3 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 9 +12.6      +5.8 38 +6.8 29 74.6 76 +16.9 18 0.0 1
31 Michigan 63.2%   7   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 9 +12.1      +5.3 48 +6.8 28 63.2 328 +15.1 26 0.0 1
37 Wisconsin 48.6%   8   2 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +11.2      +3.4 84 +7.8 19 60.7 344 +4.1 123 0.0 1
46 Indiana 44.3%   11   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 11 +10.3      +6.0 32 +4.3 67 68.2 223 +2.3 144 0.0 1
53 Illinois 33.1%   2 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +9.1      +5.7 40 +3.4 78 75.5 67 +10.8 51 0.0 1
58 Iowa 24.8%   2 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 11 +8.6      +8.3 12 +0.3 151 73.8 84 +0.4 173 0.0 1
70 Minnesota 11.8%   1 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 13 +7.3      +2.2 105 +5.1 58 69.5 184 -4.0 232 0.0 1
75 Rutgers 18.5%   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 12 +6.9      +0.8 150 +6.1 43 68.5 212 +4.5 115 0.0 1
110 Northwestern 4.2%   1 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 18 5 - 15 +3.3      -1.2 216 +4.5 61 65.3 295 -1.1 197 0.0 1
134 Nebraska 1.0%   1 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 15 +1.9      -0.4 185 +2.3 104 68.8 207 -10.0 296 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Michigan St. 2.1 51.3 21.4 11.5 6.7 4.0 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 3.5 21.7 22.4 16.9 12.3 8.8 6.3 4.2 3.0 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1
Maryland 3.6 21.4 19.8 16.8 12.4 9.3 6.7 4.7 3.4 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
Purdue 4.7 10.5 14.4 15.7 14.2 11.5 9.2 7.2 5.7 4.3 3.1 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.2
Penn St. 6.0 5.2 8.5 10.5 11.6 12.4 11.4 10.0 8.4 6.9 5.6 4.1 2.9 1.8 0.8
Michigan 6.3 4.4 7.2 9.3 10.8 11.6 11.5 10.6 9.2 7.8 6.3 4.8 3.5 2.2 1.0
Wisconsin 7.0 2.9 5.2 7.5 9.1 10.5 11.2 10.9 10.4 9.2 7.7 6.3 4.8 3.0 1.4
Indiana 7.6 1.9 4.1 5.8 7.4 9.0 10.0 10.5 10.6 10.3 9.7 8.1 6.3 4.3 2.1
Illinois 8.3 1.1 2.3 3.9 5.5 7.4 9.1 9.9 10.9 11.2 10.9 10.2 8.3 6.1 3.0
Iowa 8.3 1.1 2.5 4.3 6.0 7.7 8.6 9.6 10.5 10.7 10.6 9.7 8.5 6.7 3.5
Minnesota 9.5 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.4 6.2 7.5 9.3 11.0 12.1 12.7 12.9 10.8 6.4
Rutgers 9.4 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.6 4.9 6.5 7.7 9.4 10.9 12.1 12.4 12.1 10.1 6.5
Northwestern 11.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.6 6.6 8.6 11.5 15.5 20.8 24.1
Nebraska 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.5 5.1 7.3 10.2 14.6 21.6 31.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan St. 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.7 9.5 12.8 15.4 16.6 14.9 10.4 4.3
Ohio St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.2 4.9 7.0 9.6 11.8 13.4 13.7 12.5 10.1 6.3 3.1 0.9
Maryland 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.6 5.7 7.4 9.9 11.9 12.9 12.9 12.0 9.3 6.0 2.8 0.8
Purdue 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.8 4.5 6.3 8.6 10.4 11.7 12.7 11.9 10.7 8.1 5.1 2.8 1.1 0.2
Penn St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.6 5.6 7.6 9.5 11.3 12.1 11.8 11.0 9.0 6.6 4.1 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1
Michigan 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.4 6.4 8.5 10.4 11.6 12.1 11.6 9.9 7.9 5.5 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
Wisconsin 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.7 5.8 8.0 10.0 11.8 12.1 11.8 10.5 8.3 6.4 4.0 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Indiana 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 5.4 7.5 9.7 11.3 11.9 11.7 10.7 8.8 6.7 4.9 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.5 6.9 9.4 11.5 12.3 12.5 11.2 9.5 7.2 5.0 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 4.7 7.1 9.4 11.0 11.7 11.8 10.9 9.2 7.4 5.3 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 7 - 13 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.0 7.9 10.7 12.4 13.0 12.3 10.7 8.6 6.2 4.3 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 8 - 12 0.2 1.0 2.4 4.8 7.6 10.0 11.9 12.9 12.5 10.8 8.9 6.6 4.6 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 5 - 15 1.8 5.4 9.6 12.7 14.0 13.9 12.2 9.9 7.7 5.3 3.4 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 5 - 15 2.8 7.5 11.8 14.7 14.7 13.7 11.2 8.5 6.1 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan St. 51.3% 38.6 10.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 21.7% 13.8 6.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Maryland 21.4% 13.9 5.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Purdue 10.5% 5.8 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 5.2% 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Michigan 4.4% 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 2.9% 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Indiana 1.9% 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Illinois 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Iowa 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan St. 98.9% 36.4% 62.5% 1   37.4 24.6 15.5 8.4 5.1 3.3 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.1 98.3%
Ohio St. 95.1% 17.3% 77.7% 3   17.1 18.3 16.8 12.4 9.8 7.3 4.7 3.3 2.3 1.6 1.3 0.3 4.9 94.0%
Maryland 91.9% 17.6% 74.3% 3   15.3 15.8 14.2 11.9 9.4 7.5 5.3 4.3 3.1 2.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.1 90.1%
Purdue 70.4% 8.1% 62.3% 6   3.0 4.8 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.6 7.7 5.8 4.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 29.6 67.8%
Penn St. 67.4% 5.4% 62.0% 7   1.6 3.3 6.4 6.9 8.1 8.8 7.5 6.6 5.7 5.1 5.9 1.4 0.0 32.6 65.5%
Michigan 63.2% 4.6% 58.6% 7   1.9 3.3 5.7 6.4 7.5 8.0 7.4 6.6 5.7 4.8 4.8 1.1 0.0 36.8 61.5%
Wisconsin 48.6% 3.4% 45.2% 8   0.8 1.7 3.1 3.9 5.1 5.7 6.4 6.6 5.6 4.8 3.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.4 46.8%
Indiana 44.3% 2.5% 41.7% 11   0.5 1.1 2.4 2.9 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.2 5.6 5.2 4.8 1.0 0.0 55.7 42.8%
Illinois 33.1% 1.7% 31.5% 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.9 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.9 32.0%
Iowa 24.8% 1.4% 23.4% 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.2 3.9 3.4 3.6 3.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.2 23.8%
Minnesota 11.8% 0.7% 11.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.3 11.1%
Rutgers 18.5% 0.7% 17.8% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.1 4.0 1.1 0.0 81.5 17.9%
Northwestern 4.2% 0.2% 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 95.8 4.1%
Nebraska 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0 0.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Michigan St. 98.9% 0.3% 98.8% 92.0% 70.2% 48.1% 30.7% 18.8% 11.1%
Ohio St. 95.1% 1.1% 94.6% 79.4% 51.3% 29.0% 15.3% 7.9% 4.0%
Maryland 91.9% 1.8% 91.1% 75.5% 48.2% 27.3% 14.8% 7.7% 4.0%
Purdue 70.4% 3.0% 69.1% 49.1% 25.1% 12.1% 5.7% 2.6% 1.1%
Penn St. 67.4% 5.7% 64.7% 42.6% 19.9% 8.8% 3.7% 1.5% 0.6%
Michigan 63.2% 4.4% 61.1% 39.9% 18.5% 8.0% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5%
Wisconsin 48.6% 3.5% 46.8% 29.0% 12.3% 5.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3%
Indiana 44.3% 4.2% 42.2% 24.9% 9.9% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Illinois 33.1% 4.8% 30.8% 16.9% 6.0% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Iowa 24.8% 2.9% 23.4% 12.8% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Minnesota 11.8% 1.5% 11.0% 5.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Rutgers 18.5% 4.0% 16.5% 8.1% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Northwestern 4.2% 0.8% 3.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.7 0.0 0.1 1.7 11.0 28.9 34.7 18.6 4.5 0.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.5 0.0 0.2 2.6 14.0 31.6 32.7 15.3 3.3 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 4.8 0.0 0.2 2.0 11.2 27.3 32.8 19.7 5.9 0.9 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 98.7% 2.7 1.3 11.4 30.1 34.7 17.8 4.1 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 86.9% 1.5 13.1 39.7 34.4 11.3 1.4 0.1 0.0
Final Four 62.4% 0.8 37.6 46.8 14.4 1.2 0.0
Final Game 38.6% 0.4 61.4 35.3 3.2
Champion 22.1% 0.2 77.9 22.1