Big Ten
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Michigan St. 99.7%   2   15 - 5 7 - 2 23 - 8 15 - 5 +18.2      +9.8 6 +8.4 11 72.4 93 +15.3 16 +17.8 2
8 Maryland 99.7%   3   16 - 4 6 - 3 23 - 8 13 - 7 +16.2      +7.0 22 +9.3 7 67.2 243 +17.1 12 +16.2 3
13 Ohio St. 88.3%   5   13 - 7 3 - 6 19 - 12 9 - 11 +14.6      +6.8 30 +7.8 20 65.3 281 +11.9 34 +6.7 12
15 Iowa 97.3%   4   15 - 5 6 - 3 21 - 10 12 - 8 +14.2      +10.7 2 +3.5 82 73.8 67 +14.6 20 +13.9 5
19 Purdue 61.4%   8   11 - 9 4 - 5 17 - 14 10 - 10 +13.4      +5.1 47 +8.4 12 60.3 346 +9.2 56 +9.9 10
24 Penn St. 92.5%   5   14 - 5 4 - 4 21 - 10 11 - 9 +13.0      +6.4 32 +6.6 31 75.6 44 +14.6 19 +13.8 7
25 Illinois 92.9%   5   14 - 5 7 - 2 20 - 10 13 - 7 +12.9      +7.3 21 +5.7 50 68.0 217 +14.9 17 +21.2 1
30 Michigan 62.5%   9   11 - 8 2 - 6 17 - 14 8 - 12 +12.5      +6.3 34 +6.2 35 68.9 195 +11.7 35 +7.4 11
31 Wisconsin 76.5%   7   12 - 9 5 - 5 18 - 13 11 - 9 +12.4      +4.2 61 +8.1 18 59.7 350 +10.9 39 +13.9 6
33 Rutgers 78.8%   8   14 - 5 6 - 3 19 - 11 11 - 9 +11.7      +3.4 81 +8.3 13 68.5 208 +12.7 32 +15.3 4
37 Indiana 79.0%   7   15 - 5 5 - 4 20 - 11 10 - 10 +11.4      +5.6 43 +5.8 41 68.6 206 +13.8 24 +12.7 9
39 Minnesota 44.3%   11   11 - 9 5 - 5 16 - 14 10 - 10 +11.0      +6.9 27 +4.2 73 65.2 284 +10.2 43 +13.8 8
108 Northwestern 0.1%   6 - 13 1 - 8 9 - 21 4 - 16 +4.4      +1.9 123 +2.5 100 65.3 280 -0.7 186 0.0 14
115 Nebraska 0.0%   7 - 13 2 - 7 9 - 22 4 - 16 +3.4      +2.5 109 +0.9 137 76.0 38 +0.2 167 +5.0 13






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Michigan St. 1.8 62.8 18.8 9.1 4.3 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1
Maryland 3.1 24.5 24.5 18.9 11.6 7.4 4.8 3.8 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
Ohio St. 8.2 0.5 1.9 3.6 5.5 7.3 8.5 11.3 12.2 12.4 13.0 11.7 11.1 0.9 0.1
Iowa 4.4 10.3 16.6 16.7 14.3 11.5 8.9 7.5 5.2 4.0 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.0
Purdue 7.3 0.8 3.8 7.3 8.5 9.1 10.3 11.3 10.7 11.0 10.5 9.7 6.5 0.5
Penn St. 6.2 3.9 7.4 10.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 10.5 9.5 8.8 7.0 5.3 3.2 0.3 0.0
Illinois 3.3 21.8 24.4 17.5 12.1 8.0 6.2 4.2 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1
Michigan 9.6 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.8 4.0 5.1 7.5 8.5 10.3 13.2 17.0 23.9 4.6 0.8
Wisconsin 6.4 1.7 5.1 8.7 12.4 12.6 12.1 12.1 10.2 8.7 7.6 5.8 2.8 0.2 0.0
Rutgers 5.8 3.7 9.7 11.9 12.1 12.1 11.3 10.8 9.0 7.3 5.8 3.9 2.3 0.1
Indiana 7.6 1.0 3.8 5.8 8.0 9.1 9.4 9.8 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.5 8.6 0.4
Minnesota 7.4 0.7 3.3 5.5 7.6 9.1 10.5 12.1 11.9 12.1 11.9 9.7 5.3 0.3
Northwestern 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.4 5.2 39.1 53.8
Nebraska 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 9.4 59.1 27.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.8 7.6 14.8 20.7 22.7 18.2 9.6 2.6
Maryland 13 - 7 0.1 0.3 1.9 5.7 10.9 19.1 23.4 20.1 12.4 5.1 0.9
Ohio St. 9 - 11 0.3 1.3 3.8 9.1 15.7 21.0 21.7 15.7 8.0 2.9 0.5
Iowa 12 - 8 0.0 0.6 2.3 6.1 12.4 18.7 21.8 19.6 11.4 5.5 1.4 0.2
Purdue 10 - 10 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.0 12.5 18.2 21.6 18.0 12.5 6.2 1.8 0.3
Penn St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.0 8.2 13.5 19.2 20.9 16.9 10.8 4.6 1.5 0.2
Illinois 13 - 7 0.0 0.5 2.6 6.5 12.7 19.1 22.2 17.9 11.5 5.2 1.6 0.2
Michigan 8 - 12 0.0 0.4 1.4 4.7 9.7 16.2 20.0 19.8 14.4 8.5 3.7 1.0 0.2
Wisconsin 11 - 9 0.1 0.7 2.7 8.1 14.6 21.5 22.3 17.2 9.2 2.9 0.6
Rutgers 11 - 9 0.4 1.6 5.9 12.5 18.9 21.1 19.1 12.0 5.9 2.1 0.4 0.1
Indiana 10 - 10 0.6 2.5 7.2 14.8 19.2 19.6 16.8 11.0 6.0 2.0 0.4 0.0
Minnesota 10 - 10 0.1 1.6 5.9 13.3 20.0 22.6 19.2 10.7 5.0 1.3 0.2
Northwestern 4 - 16 6.9 18.1 25.9 23.9 14.3 7.1 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Nebraska 4 - 16 8.2 22.1 27.9 22.0 12.0 5.3 1.9 0.4 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan St. 62.8% 45.1 13.4 3.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Maryland 24.5% 12.2 8.6 2.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Ohio St. 0.5% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Iowa 10.3% 4.1 4.0 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
Purdue 0.8% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 3.9% 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1
Illinois 21.8% 10.5 8.2 2.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Michigan 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin 1.7% 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1
Rutgers 3.7% 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Indiana 1.0% 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1
Minnesota 0.7% 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northwestern
Nebraska


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan St. 99.7% 30.1% 69.6% 2   19.6 28.8 24.8 14.4 7.0 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6%
Maryland 99.7% 17.5% 82.3% 3   13.9 23.4 26.3 17.0 9.5 5.1 2.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 99.7%
Ohio St. 88.3% 7.3% 81.1% 5   0.5 2.9 7.8 10.3 15.4 14.2 11.1 8.6 5.9 5.8 4.9 0.7 11.7 87.4%
Iowa 97.3% 9.2% 88.1% 4   1.7 6.0 17.5 18.2 20.6 15.2 8.2 4.7 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.1 2.7 97.0%
Purdue 61.4% 5.4% 56.0% 8   0.0 0.4 2.4 3.5 7.0 9.0 10.6 9.7 6.2 5.8 5.6 1.0 38.6 59.2%
Penn St. 92.5% 5.6% 86.9% 5   0.5 2.3 8.1 11.3 16.6 18.6 13.4 9.0 5.4 3.7 3.1 0.3 7.5 92.1%
Illinois 92.9% 7.8% 85.1% 5   1.1 3.6 10.8 13.4 16.6 17.2 12.7 9.0 4.5 2.2 1.6 0.2 7.1 92.3%
Michigan 62.5% 3.3% 59.2% 9   0.1 0.5 2.6 4.4 7.4 9.8 8.4 7.5 5.6 6.6 7.6 1.8 37.5 61.2%
Wisconsin 76.5% 4.8% 71.7% 7   0.0 0.7 2.4 4.7 9.9 12.8 14.7 12.8 8.7 5.0 4.1 0.7 23.5 75.3%
Rutgers 78.8% 3.7% 75.1% 8   0.2 0.7 2.5 4.9 9.2 12.9 14.3 12.7 8.9 6.5 5.2 0.7 21.2 78.0%
Indiana 79.0% 3.1% 76.0% 7   0.2 0.6 3.3 6.2 10.4 13.0 12.9 11.5 7.9 6.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 21.0 78.4%
Minnesota 44.3% 2.2% 42.1% 11   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.8 5.1 7.1 9.0 6.0 5.4 5.8 1.3 0.0 55.7 43.1%
Northwestern 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Michigan St. 99.7% 0.1% 99.7% 92.7% 67.0% 42.2% 24.5% 13.7% 7.3%
Maryland 99.7% 0.3% 99.6% 87.5% 56.6% 31.0% 15.4% 7.4% 3.3%
Ohio St. 88.3% 4.4% 86.7% 62.6% 33.0% 16.0% 8.0% 3.4% 1.4%
Iowa 97.3% 0.9% 97.0% 73.6% 40.8% 18.4% 8.1% 3.5% 1.3%
Purdue 61.4% 5.0% 59.6% 39.2% 17.6% 7.9% 3.6% 1.6% 0.6%
Penn St. 92.5% 2.5% 91.5% 61.3% 29.0% 12.2% 5.2% 2.0% 0.7%
Illinois 92.9% 1.3% 92.3% 62.6% 29.7% 12.1% 5.2% 2.0% 0.8%
Michigan 62.5% 7.1% 59.4% 36.7% 15.6% 6.8% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Wisconsin 76.5% 3.6% 75.0% 45.4% 18.1% 7.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Rutgers 78.8% 4.4% 76.7% 44.5% 17.4% 6.8% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Indiana 79.0% 5.4% 76.4% 44.5% 17.7% 7.1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Minnesota 44.3% 5.8% 41.7% 22.2% 8.5% 3.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2%
Northwestern 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.7 0.0 0.6 8.9 29.7 40.3 18.2 2.2
1st Round 100.0% 9.6 0.0 1.1 11.9 33.9 37.7 13.9 1.4
2nd Round 100.0% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 4.0 11.9 25.8 29.6 19.8 6.9 1.2 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.7% 3.5 0.3 4.2 16.2 29.8 28.8 15.3 4.4 0.9 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 89.7% 1.7 10.3 33.9 34.8 16.9 3.6 0.4 0.0
Final Four 63.0% 0.8 37.0 45.9 15.1 1.9 0.0
Final Game 35.1% 0.4 64.9 32.1 2.9
Champion 17.0% 0.2 83.0 17.0