Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
193 Rider 17.9%   11 - 8 5 - 4 18 - 12 12 - 8 -2.0      +1.1 151 -3.1 263 75.1 49 -1.2 189 -4.6 6
198 Monmouth 18.4%   16   12 - 7 6 - 2 19 - 12 13 - 7 -2.4      -2.9 259 +0.5 151 76.4 35 +0.8 155 +0.9 1
210 Siena 14.7%   9 - 9 5 - 4 15 - 14 11 - 9 -3.0      -0.3 184 -2.7 253 69.3 180 -3.0 217 -4.0 3
232 Canisius 8.1%   8 - 12 3 - 6 14 - 17 9 - 11 -4.1      -2.9 263 -1.1 202 73.1 83 -4.5 237 -7.6 10
238 St. Peter's 8.5%   7 - 10 4 - 4 13 - 16 10 - 10 -4.5      -6.7 331 +2.3 105 65.5 278 -6.5 269 -4.5 5
239 Quinnipiac 9.6%   10 - 8 5 - 3 16 - 14 11 - 9 -4.5      -0.3 186 -4.2 292 67.9 228 -4.0 228 -3.0 2
247 Manhattan 7.9%   8 - 9 4 - 4 14 - 15 10 - 10 -4.9      -6.4 329 +1.5 130 64.9 291 -4.8 241 -5.1 7
259 Fairfield 6.1%   8 - 11 4 - 4 14 - 17 10 - 10 -5.5      -5.8 319 +0.3 154 61.0 340 -5.4 250 -5.7 8
267 Iona 5.6%   5 - 10 3 - 5 10 - 17 8 - 12 -5.7      -1.1 208 -4.6 304 72.4 92 -8.7 304 -8.8 11
294 Niagara 2.9%   6 - 13 4 - 4 11 - 20 9 - 11 -7.6      -0.4 188 -7.2 338 66.3 256 -5.6 255 -4.1 4
334 Marist 0.4%   4 - 14 3 - 6 7 - 22 6 - 14 -11.3      -8.9 345 -2.5 239 62.6 328 -12.1 331 -7.5 9






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Rider 3.5 21.9 21.6 16.0 11.7 9.7 7.4 5.1 3.5 2.1 0.8 0.1
Monmouth 2.2 54.3 17.4 10.6 7.0 4.4 2.6 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Siena 3.8 17.4 19.8 16.0 13.7 10.2 7.8 6.4 4.1 2.9 1.5 0.3
Canisius 6.3 2.4 5.8 8.7 11.1 11.4 12.3 12.8 12.3 11.5 8.0 3.7
St. Peter's 4.9 9.9 12.7 12.3 12.4 12.0 11.3 9.7 7.8 6.2 4.3 1.3
Quinnipiac 4.3 13.2 17.7 15.2 13.1 10.7 8.8 7.8 6.3 4.1 2.7 0.4
Manhattan 5.5 6.2 10.2 11.3 12.1 11.9 11.3 10.9 9.6 8.2 6.0 2.3
Fairfield 5.9 5.1 8.0 9.0 10.4 11.1 12.5 11.8 11.7 10.0 7.8 2.7
Iona 7.4 1.5 3.9 5.4 6.7 8.1 9.2 10.7 12.1 15.0 18.1 9.3
Niagara 6.8 2.4 4.6 6.7 8.5 9.9 10.9 12.6 14.1 13.2 11.5 5.6
Marist 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.8 6.7 11.6 20.6 52.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Rider 12 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.9 3.3 8.7 14.7 19.2 21.1 17.5 10.1 3.5 0.8
Monmouth 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 5.9 11.8 16.8 19.1 18.2 13.8 7.5 2.9 0.5
Siena 11 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.9 9.8 16.1 20.8 19.6 15.4 8.1 2.8 0.4
Canisius 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.2 9.3 16.3 20.6 20.2 15.9 8.4 3.3 0.4
St. Peter's 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.8 9.7 16.4 18.7 19.8 14.3 8.7 4.2 1.2 0.2
Quinnipiac 11 - 9 0.0 0.6 2.7 6.4 13.2 17.5 20.1 17.4 12.8 6.3 2.5 0.5 0.1
Manhattan 10 - 10 0.0 0.7 2.6 6.7 12.1 18.1 20.2 17.8 11.9 6.5 2.6 0.6 0.1
Fairfield 10 - 10 0.2 1.0 4.0 9.1 14.5 19.5 19.6 15.7 9.7 4.8 1.6 0.3 0.0
Iona 8 - 12 0.2 1.3 4.8 10.4 15.6 18.7 18.2 14.5 9.7 4.4 1.7 0.4 0.1
Niagara 9 - 11 0.3 2.2 6.1 12.4 18.9 20.8 17.2 12.3 6.4 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Marist 6 - 14 3.5 12.8 20.6 22.5 18.9 12.7 6.2 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Rider 21.9% 10.8 7.0 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 54.3% 38.1 11.6 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Siena 17.4% 8.5 5.2 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Canisius 2.4% 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 9.9% 4.6 3.3 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 13.2% 6.3 4.3 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 6.2% 2.5 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 5.1% 2.0 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iona 1.5% 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Niagara 2.4% 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Marist 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Rider 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.3 7.9 7.2 82.1 0.0%
Monmouth 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.7 3.3 8.9 5.5 81.6 0.0%
Siena 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.1 8.5 85.3 0.0%
Canisius 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.5 6.5 91.9 0.0%
St. Peter's 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 7.2 91.5 0.0%
Quinnipiac 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.1 7.4 90.4 0.0%
Manhattan 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 6.7 92.1 0.0%
Fairfield 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 5.5 93.9 0.0%
Iona 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 5.2 94.4 0.0%
Niagara 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.2 2.7 97.1 0.0%
Marist 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Rider 17.9% 2.2% 16.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 18.4% 1.4% 17.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 14.7% 3.3% 13.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 8.1% 4.0% 6.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 8.5% 4.6% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 9.6% 4.1% 7.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 7.9% 4.3% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 6.1% 4.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 5.6% 4.2% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 2.9% 2.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 82.6% 0.8 17.4 82.6
2nd Round 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0