Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
168 Rider 24.9%   16   2 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 14 - 6 -0.5      +2.0 111 -2.5 250 82.2 15 +2.6 141 0.0 1
179 Siena 21.0%   2 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 7 -1.1      -1.2 215 +0.1 156 73.5 90 +3.4 132 0.0 1
194 Iona 17.9%   0 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 12 13 - 7 -2.0      +0.6 155 -2.6 251 75.8 60 -14.3 331 0.0 1
249 Quinnipiac 9.7%   0 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 9 -4.7      -0.3 179 -4.4 300 66.8 263 -11.4 307 0.0 1
269 Monmouth 6.7%   1 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 16 10 - 10 -5.6      -4.5 302 -1.1 194 72.5 112 -0.4 184 0.0 1
275 Manhattan 7.5%   1 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 10 -5.6      -4.5 304 -1.1 196 72.1 123 -6.4 260 0.0 1
280 Fairfield 5.5%   1 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 10 -6.4      -4.8 306 -1.6 207 61.6 339 -8.2 277 0.0 1
303 Canisius 3.0%   0 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 20 8 - 12 -8.6      -4.1 293 -4.6 303 68.8 204 -11.5 308 0.0 1
322 Niagara 1.2%   0 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 23 7 - 13 -10.7      -2.5 256 -8.2 347 73.1 94 -12.9 318 0.0 1
330 Marist 1.3%   1 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 13 -11.2      -7.6 338 -3.6 288 62.6 334 -9.5 289 0.0 1
332 St. Peter's 1.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 8 - 21 7 - 13 -11.3      -9.8 350 -1.5 204 60.5 345 -20.9 351 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Rider 2.9 33.9 20.7 14.4 10.4 7.5 5.2 3.6 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.2
Siena 3.1 27.8 21.1 16.0 12.0 8.5 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3
Iona 3.6 23.0 18.8 15.6 12.2 9.6 7.3 5.3 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.6
Quinnipiac 4.9 11.2 12.2 12.7 12.2 11.7 10.7 9.3 7.6 5.8 4.2 2.5
Monmouth 5.4 6.7 9.6 11.5 12.9 12.8 12.4 11.1 9.1 6.9 4.6 2.4
Manhattan 5.4 8.3 9.9 10.9 11.7 12.0 11.3 10.2 9.1 7.3 5.8 3.5
Fairfield 5.8 5.4 8.0 9.7 11.3 12.1 12.2 11.6 10.5 8.7 6.4 4.0
Canisius 7.0 2.4 4.2 5.8 7.7 9.3 11.1 12.4 13.2 13.1 11.8 9.0
Niagara 8.0 0.9 1.9 3.2 4.5 6.5 8.5 10.6 13.5 16.0 17.6 16.8
Marist 8.2 0.8 1.7 2.7 4.2 5.9 7.8 9.7 12.7 15.8 18.3 20.4
St. Peter's 8.3 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.0 5.7 7.5 9.5 12.2 15.1 18.4 21.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Rider 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.6 7.5 9.6 11.2 12.1 12.4 11.5 9.5 6.7 3.6 1.2
Siena 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.4 6.3 8.6 10.6 12.3 12.8 12.4 10.6 7.9 4.9 2.4 0.6
Iona 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.1 5.9 7.7 9.4 10.9 11.4 11.7 11.0 9.0 6.6 3.9 1.8 0.5
Quinnipiac 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.3 6.2 7.6 9.5 10.3 10.7 10.5 9.7 8.4 6.5 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.1
Monmouth 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.2 7.1 9.5 11.2 11.6 11.8 10.6 9.1 7.2 4.8 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Manhattan 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.2 5.5 7.2 9.0 10.2 10.8 10.6 9.8 8.6 6.8 5.3 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1
Fairfield 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.6 6.7 8.5 10.2 11.4 11.2 10.7 9.5 7.8 5.8 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Canisius 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.8 5.9 8.1 10.0 11.3 11.6 11.0 9.7 8.0 6.4 4.6 2.8 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Niagara 7 - 13 0.5 1.9 4.4 7.1 9.4 11.4 12.5 12.0 10.9 9.1 7.2 5.2 3.5 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marist 7 - 13 0.8 2.7 5.3 8.0 10.7 11.6 12.3 11.5 10.0 8.4 6.6 4.8 3.1 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Peter's 7 - 13 0.9 3.1 5.9 8.4 10.9 11.7 11.8 11.0 9.7 8.2 6.1 4.6 3.1 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Rider 33.9% 24.8 7.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Siena 27.8% 19.4 6.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iona 23.0% 15.8 5.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 11.2% 7.1 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 6.7% 3.8 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 8.3% 5.2 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 5.4% 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Canisius 2.4% 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Niagara 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marist 0.8% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Peter's 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Rider 24.9% 24.9% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 6.4 7.6 5.2 75.1 0.0%
Siena 21.0% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 5.5 7.2 4.9 79.0 0.0%
Iona 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 5.5 8.0 82.1 0.0%
Quinnipiac 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.0 90.3 0.0%
Monmouth 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.0 93.3 0.0%
Manhattan 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.1 92.5 0.0%
Fairfield 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.7 94.5 0.0%
Canisius 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.5 97.0 0.0%
Niagara 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%
Marist 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 98.7 0.0%
St. Peter's 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Rider 24.9% 2.1% 23.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 21.0% 2.0% 20.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 17.9% 4.3% 16.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 9.7% 2.9% 8.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 6.7% 2.4% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 7.5% 2.6% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 5.5% 2.3% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 3.0% 1.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 89.0% 0.9 11.0 89.0 0.0
2nd Round 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9 0.0
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0