Preseason Rankings
Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#288
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.9#148
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#312
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#228
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 7.0% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 32.4% 48.5% 23.6%
.500 or above in Conference 45.4% 57.2% 39.0%
Conference Champion 5.6% 8.2% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 6.7% 14.3%
First Four1.7% 2.0% 1.5%
First Round4.1% 6.0% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 35.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 411 - 913 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 159   Bucknell L 71-75 35%    
  Nov 09, 2019 237   Massachusetts W 71-70 50%    
  Nov 12, 2019 312   @ Holy Cross L 65-66 46%    
  Nov 17, 2019 209   @ Loyola Maryland L 70-77 26%    
  Nov 19, 2019 9   @ Maryland L 56-83 1%    
  Nov 28, 2019 64   USC L 66-82 9%    
  Dec 08, 2019 246   William & Mary W 74-73 52%    
  Dec 21, 2019 201   @ Oakland L 69-77 25%    
  Dec 28, 2019 331   @ Wagner W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 03, 2020 315   @ Niagara L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 05, 2020 295   @ Canisius L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 08, 2020 328   Marist W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 10, 2020 259   Manhattan W 62-61 55%    
  Jan 15, 2020 307   St. Peter's W 65-61 64%    
  Jan 17, 2020 161   @ Iona L 72-82 20%    
  Jan 24, 2020 256   @ Quinnipiac L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 26, 2020 295   Canisius W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 31, 2020 180   @ Rider L 74-83 24%    
  Feb 04, 2020 239   Monmouth W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 07, 2020 251   @ Siena L 60-65 34%    
  Feb 09, 2020 161   Iona L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 14, 2020 328   @ Marist W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 16, 2020 307   @ St. Peter's L 62-64 45%    
  Feb 21, 2020 315   Niagara W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 23, 2020 251   Siena W 63-62 54%    
  Feb 28, 2020 256   Quinnipiac W 72-71 53%    
  Mar 01, 2020 180   Rider L 77-80 42%    
  Mar 04, 2020 239   @ Monmouth L 66-72 32%    
  Mar 06, 2020 259   @ Manhattan L 59-64 35%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 8.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.9 1.1 0.1 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 4.0 1.2 0.1 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.2 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.9 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.1 2.3 0.7 0.1 9.3 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.7 11th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.1 8.3 9.4 10.0 10.7 9.6 8.8 7.7 6.4 5.1 3.7 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 97.6% 0.6    0.6 0.1
17-3 89.0% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
16-4 66.4% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 36.5% 1.3    0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 13.8% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 48.6% 48.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 56.7% 54.2% 2.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5.5%
18-2 0.6% 33.9% 33.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
17-3 1.2% 31.4% 31.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8
16-4 2.0% 21.8% 21.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.6
15-5 3.7% 17.4% 17.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 3.0
14-6 5.1% 16.0% 16.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 4.3
13-7 6.4% 11.7% 11.7% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 5.6
12-8 7.7% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.0 0.5 7.1
11-9 8.8% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 8.3
10-10 9.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.4
9-11 10.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.6
8-12 10.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.0
7-13 9.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.4
6-14 8.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.3
5-15 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.1
4-16 4.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.6
3-17 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.9
2-18 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.9 95.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%