Preseason Rankings
Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#48
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.7#179
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#37
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#63
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.5% 3.7% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 10.0% 10.6% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 19.1% 20.2% 6.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.0% 50.2% 23.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.0% 48.1% 22.2%
Average Seed 7.2 7.2 8.0
.500 or above 75.7% 78.2% 48.6%
.500 or above in Conference 54.1% 55.7% 35.1%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.2% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 5.1% 12.6%
First Four5.0% 5.2% 3.0%
First Round45.4% 47.5% 21.9%
Second Round27.3% 28.7% 11.4%
Sweet Sixteen11.2% 11.9% 3.5%
Elite Eight4.6% 4.9% 1.2%
Final Four1.8% 1.9% 0.4%
Championship Game0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 38 - 11
Quad 35 - 113 - 12
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 185   Florida International W 92-77 92%    
  Nov 08, 2019 186   Sam Houston St. W 79-64 92%    
  Nov 14, 2019 223   Louisiana Monroe W 81-65 93%    
  Nov 17, 2019 243   New Orleans W 81-63 94%    
  Nov 21, 2019 242   Tulane W 82-67 91%    
  Dec 05, 2019 116   Louisiana Tech W 75-65 80%    
  Dec 14, 2019 50   Kansas St. W 65-64 51%    
  Dec 18, 2019 134   Radford W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 22, 2019 55   New Mexico St. W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 30, 2019 129   Kent St. W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 04, 2020 25   Auburn W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 08, 2020 45   @ Alabama L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 11, 2020 20   @ LSU L 74-80 31%    
  Jan 14, 2020 53   Missouri W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 18, 2020 62   Georgia W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 22, 2020 57   Arkansas W 79-75 63%    
  Jan 25, 2020 38   @ Oklahoma L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 28, 2020 7   @ Florida L 62-72 20%    
  Feb 01, 2020 30   Tennessee W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 04, 2020 2   @ Kentucky L 64-77 15%    
  Feb 08, 2020 124   Vanderbilt W 76-66 80%    
  Feb 11, 2020 51   @ Mississippi L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 15, 2020 57   @ Arkansas L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 19, 2020 78   South Carolina W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 22, 2020 61   @ Texas A&M L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 25, 2020 45   Alabama W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 29, 2020 53   @ Missouri L 67-70 42%    
  Mar 03, 2020 78   @ South Carolina W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 07, 2020 51   Mississippi W 76-73 61%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.2 2.4 0.9 0.1 8.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.6 2.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.0 1.1 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 4.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 4.4 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.7 0.8 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 1.4 0.2 6.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.0 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.7 4.6 6.2 8.5 10.5 11.6 11.5 10.8 9.8 7.8 6.2 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1
16-2 78.0% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 54.8% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 22.8% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 6.6% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 35.6% 64.4% 1.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 2.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.4% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 2.8 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.2% 99.8% 15.6% 84.2% 4.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 6.2% 99.2% 11.3% 87.9% 5.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
12-6 7.8% 96.8% 7.7% 89.1% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.6%
11-7 9.8% 90.0% 4.6% 85.4% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.0 89.6%
10-8 10.8% 75.2% 2.3% 72.9% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.7 74.6%
9-9 11.5% 50.8% 1.1% 49.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 5.7 50.2%
8-10 11.6% 23.2% 0.6% 22.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 8.9 22.7%
7-11 10.5% 7.2% 0.3% 6.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.7 6.9%
6-12 8.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 0.7%
5-13 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 6.2 0.1%
4-14 4.6% 0.3% 0.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 4.6
3-15 2.7% 2.7
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 48.0% 3.7% 44.3% 7.2 1.2 2.2 3.1 3.5 4.2 5.0 4.9 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 52.0 46.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 60.0 40.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.6 36.4 63.6