East Tennessee St.
Southern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#65
Expected Predictive Rating+12.7#30
Pace65.5#279
Improvement+0.5#157

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#72
First Shot+0.7#153
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#22
Layup/Dunks+2.2#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#295
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#176
Freethrows+1.1#93
Improvement-3.3#324

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#72
First Shot+4.4#62
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#182
Layups/Dunks-1.6#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#39
Freethrows+0.2#175
Improvement+3.8#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 2.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.9% 43.8% 31.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.1% 12.7% 3.4%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 11.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 74.6% 78.5% 53.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.3% 5.9% 2.2%
First Round38.9% 40.6% 30.0%
Second Round12.7% 13.6% 7.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 4.0% 2.3%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.1% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 84.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 24 - 3
Quad 38 - 211 - 6
Quad 413 - 024 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 307   @ Tennessee Martin W 92-75 89%     1 - 0 +11.4 +5.1 +5.4
  Nov 14, 2019 133   Winthrop W 61-58 79%     2 - 0 +2.4 -6.2 +8.9
  Nov 19, 2019 1   @ Kansas L 63-75 7%     2 - 1 +12.2 +1.5 +11.1
  Nov 23, 2019 348   Delaware St. W 98-66 99%     3 - 1 +11.6 +12.6 -3.5
  Nov 24, 2019 155   Southern Utah W 70-58 83%     4 - 1 +9.6 -0.9 +10.6
  Nov 26, 2019 203   Appalachian St. W 78-69 89%     5 - 1 +3.3 +4.1 -0.7
  Nov 30, 2019 139   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 67-63 63%     6 - 1 +8.5 +9.2 -0.1
  Dec 04, 2019 300   @ The Citadel W 96-84 88%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +6.8 +11.3 -5.4
  Dec 07, 2019 149   @ North Dakota St. L 68-78 65%     7 - 2 -6.1 -1.5 -5.2
  Dec 18, 2019 33   @ LSU W 74-63 25%     8 - 2 +26.0 +11.3 +15.7
  Dec 21, 2019 318   Cleveland St. W 80-55 96%     9 - 2 +12.6 +3.7 +9.4
  Jan 01, 2020 130   Wofford W 49-48 79%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +0.5 -15.9 +16.6
  Jan 04, 2020 85   @ Furman L 56-65 44%     10 - 3 2 - 1 +0.3 -9.4 +9.2
  Jan 08, 2020 82   @ UNC Greensboro W 64-57 42%     11 - 3 3 - 1 +16.8 +1.1 +15.9
  Jan 11, 2020 289   VMI W 61-55 95%     12 - 3 4 - 1 -4.5 -12.2 +8.4
  Jan 15, 2020 285   Samford W 88-63 94%     13 - 3 5 - 1 +15.1 +8.1 +7.0
  Jan 18, 2020 169   @ Western Carolina W 85-66 69%     14 - 3 6 - 1 +21.7 +10.7 +11.4
  Jan 25, 2020 157   Chattanooga W 72-62 85%    
  Jan 29, 2020 228   Mercer W 76-61 91%    
  Feb 01, 2020 82   UNC Greensboro W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 05, 2020 157   @ Chattanooga W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 08, 2020 228   @ Mercer W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 12, 2020 300   The Citadel W 85-66 96%    
  Feb 15, 2020 289   @ VMI W 75-63 87%    
  Feb 19, 2020 85   Furman W 70-66 66%    
  Feb 22, 2020 285   @ Samford W 78-66 87%    
  Feb 26, 2020 130   @ Wofford W 66-64 59%    
  Feb 29, 2020 169   Western Carolina W 80-69 84%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.1 15.0 25.6 21.8 9.1 74.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 7.1 6.3 1.1 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.5 2.6 2.6 0.2 6.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.1 5.4 12.9 21.6 26.7 21.8 9.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 9.1    9.1
16-2 100.0% 21.8    21.3 0.5
15-3 95.7% 25.6    19.5 5.9 0.2
14-4 69.8% 15.0    6.1 7.4 1.5 0.1
13-5 24.1% 3.1    0.4 1.3 1.1 0.3
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 74.6% 74.6 56.3 15.2 2.8 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 9.1% 72.1% 45.9% 26.2% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.2 2.5 48.4%
16-2 21.8% 56.6% 43.4% 13.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 2.3 6.5 2.1 9.4 23.4%
15-3 26.7% 42.8% 36.6% 6.3% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 5.7 4.9 0.0 15.3 9.9%
14-4 21.6% 30.8% 29.2% 1.6% 11.7 0.1 1.9 4.5 0.1 14.9 2.3%
13-5 12.9% 27.9% 27.8% 0.2% 11.9 0.7 2.8 0.2 9.3 0.2%
12-6 5.4% 19.3% 19.3% 12.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 4.4
11-7 2.1% 11.0% 11.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.9
10-8 0.4% 17.9% 17.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 41.9% 34.6% 7.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 2.1 4.0 16.2 15.5 0.5 58.1 11.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.2% 100.0% 6.8 0.2 0.5 1.2 5.5 17.5 25.5 18.5 9.4 10.3 6.5 4.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 54.8% 10.1 0.5 0.9 3.7 9.7 17.1 19.8 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2% 46.1% 10.6 0.5 1.8 3.2 9.7 28.1 2.8