Green Bay
Horizon
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#214
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#227
Pace82.1#14
Improvement+1.2#136

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#101
First Shot+4.7#49
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#309
Layup/Dunks-5.1#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#11
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#100
Freethrows+1.3#92
Improvement-0.8#224

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#326
First Shot-6.2#338
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#152
Layups/Dunks-2.2#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#206
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#320
Freethrows+0.0#187
Improvement+2.0#70
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 6.4% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 18.5% 24.9% 8.4%
.500 or above in Conference 70.1% 80.1% 54.4%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.4% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.3% 2.1%
First Four3.0% 2.9% 3.2%
First Round4.5% 5.2% 3.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Away) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 54 - 11
Quad 49 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 19   @ Purdue L 57-79 4%     0 - 1 -5.3 -5.7 +0.6
  Nov 13, 2019 123   @ New Mexico L 78-93 20%     0 - 2 -9.3 -9.6 +3.2
  Nov 21, 2019 24   @ Wisconsin L 70-88 5%     0 - 3 -2.1 +5.5 -7.3
  Nov 25, 2019 270   Cal St. Northridge W 85-84 71%     1 - 3 -8.0 -2.1 -5.9
  Nov 26, 2019 129   Colgate L 81-99 39%     1 - 4 -18.5 +5.0 -23.3
  Nov 30, 2019 248   @ Montana St. W 98-72 45%     2 - 4 +23.9 +20.0 +2.6
  Dec 04, 2019 53   @ Xavier L 71-84 8%     2 - 5 -0.9 +1.8 -2.1
  Dec 07, 2019 216   @ Eastern Illinois L 80-93 39%     2 - 6 -13.6 +0.2 -12.8
  Dec 10, 2019 109   @ Central Florida L 66-79 17%     2 - 7 -6.1 -4.8 -0.6
  Dec 14, 2019 252   Evansville L 62-72 67%     2 - 8 -17.9 -18.6 +1.3
  Dec 21, 2019 188   @ Northern Illinois W 85-84 32%     3 - 8 +2.5 +12.0 -9.5
  Dec 28, 2019 117   @ Wright St. L 84-90 18%     3 - 9 0 - 1 +0.4 +6.5 -5.6
  Dec 30, 2019 115   @ Northern Kentucky W 73-59 18%     4 - 9 1 - 1 +20.6 +9.4 +12.4
  Jan 03, 2020 229   Illinois-Chicago W 85-71 63%     5 - 9 2 - 1 +7.3 +4.6 +1.8
  Jan 05, 2020 321   IUPUI L 78-93 81%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -27.4 -9.1 -17.2
  Jan 11, 2020 245   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 80-87 66%     5 - 11 2 - 3 -14.5 -3.2 -10.7
  Jan 16, 2020 207   Oakland W 73-69 60%     6 - 11 3 - 3 -1.8 -6.6 +4.6
  Jan 18, 2020 267   Detroit Mercy W 83-80 70%     7 - 11 4 - 3 -5.8 -1.3 -4.7
  Jan 23, 2020 312   @ Cleveland St. W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 25, 2020 232   @ Youngstown St. L 80-82 41%    
  Jan 31, 2020 115   Northern Kentucky L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 02, 2020 117   Wright St. L 82-86 36%    
  Feb 06, 2020 321   @ IUPUI W 86-83 62%    
  Feb 08, 2020 229   @ Illinois-Chicago L 79-81 40%    
  Feb 15, 2020 245   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 80-81 44%    
  Feb 21, 2020 267   @ Detroit Mercy L 83-84 49%    
  Feb 23, 2020 207   @ Oakland L 75-78 38%    
  Feb 27, 2020 232   Youngstown St. W 83-79 64%    
  Feb 29, 2020 312   Cleveland St. W 83-74 79%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 3.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 8.4 10.8 4.9 0.7 0.0 26.1 3rd
4th 0.7 7.8 9.6 2.7 0.2 0.0 21.1 4th
5th 0.1 4.8 8.8 2.1 0.1 16.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 7.3 2.4 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.6 4.5 2.7 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 2.4 0.2 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.9 9.1 15.8 20.4 20.4 15.4 9.0 3.7 1.1 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 92.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 58.0% 0.6    0.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 17.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 12.3% 12.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-5 3.7% 13.3% 13.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.2
12-6 9.0% 10.0% 10.0% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 8.1
11-7 15.4% 7.7% 7.7% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 14.2
10-8 20.4% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3 19.1
9-9 20.4% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9 19.4
8-10 15.8% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.5 15.4
7-11 9.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 8.9
6-12 3.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.9
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.4 94.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 13.4 65.0 30.0 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.1%