Iowa St.
Big 12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#57
Expected Predictive Rating+6.5#82
Pace73.2#78
Improvement-2.9#290

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#24
First Shot+7.2#12
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#189
Layup/Dunks+0.6#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#86
Freethrows+0.4#144
Improvement-0.5#210

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#107
First Shot+1.6#108
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#125
Layups/Dunks+3.6#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#321
Freethrows+2.8#33
Improvement-2.4#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.7% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 19.2% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.9% 17.6% 4.0%
Average Seed 9.4 9.1 9.8
.500 or above 22.9% 39.6% 16.1%
.500 or above in Conference 21.1% 37.6% 14.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.8% 4.2% 12.1%
First Four2.0% 3.8% 1.3%
First Round8.1% 17.5% 4.2%
Second Round3.7% 8.3% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 2.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Baylor (Home) - 29.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 102 - 10
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 14
Quad 24 - 38 - 17
Quad 32 - 010 - 17
Quad 45 - 115 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 352   Mississippi Valley W 110-74 99%     1 - 0 +12.2 +3.6 +1.5
  Nov 09, 2019 94   @ Oregon St. L 74-80 53%     1 - 1 +2.5 +2.7 -0.3
  Nov 12, 2019 172   Northern Illinois W 70-52 88%     2 - 1 +14.6 -2.3 +17.0
  Nov 19, 2019 250   Southern Miss W 73-45 93%     3 - 1 +20.1 -2.8 +23.3
  Nov 27, 2019 28   Michigan L 76-83 37%     3 - 2 +5.4 +1.4 +4.8
  Nov 28, 2019 35   Alabama W 104-89 41%     4 - 2 +26.6 +21.7 +2.7
  Nov 29, 2019 10   Seton Hall L 76-84 27%     4 - 3 +7.5 +7.4 +0.5
  Dec 04, 2019 225   UMKC W 79-61 92%     5 - 3 +11.3 +1.1 +9.7
  Dec 08, 2019 10   Seton Hall W 76-66 37%     6 - 3 +22.6 +0.2 +21.0
  Dec 12, 2019 15   Iowa L 68-84 42%     6 - 4 -4.7 -2.8 -2.1
  Dec 22, 2019 269   Purdue Fort Wayne W 89-59 94%     7 - 4 +21.1 +11.4 +9.7
  Dec 31, 2019 313   Florida A&M L 68-70 96%     7 - 5 -13.8 -5.3 -8.6
  Jan 04, 2020 61   @ TCU L 79-81 OT 42%     7 - 6 0 - 1 +9.2 +6.9 +2.5
  Jan 08, 2020 1   Kansas L 53-79 20%     7 - 7 0 - 2 -8.1 -4.9 -5.8
  Jan 11, 2020 47   Oklahoma W 81-68 57%     8 - 7 1 - 2 +20.4 +15.6 +5.3
  Jan 15, 2020 4   @ Baylor L 55-68 14%     8 - 8 1 - 3 +7.5 -3.5 +10.3
  Jan 18, 2020 23   @ Texas Tech L 52-72 26%     8 - 9 1 - 4 -4.1 -5.8 +0.4
  Jan 21, 2020 64   Oklahoma St. W 89-82 66%     9 - 9 2 - 4 +12.0 +12.4 -1.0
  Jan 25, 2020 27   @ Auburn L 76-80 27%     9 - 10 +11.4 +7.0 +4.6
  Jan 29, 2020 4   Baylor L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 01, 2020 63   @ Texas L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 05, 2020 6   @ West Virginia L 69-79 16%    
  Feb 08, 2020 78   Kansas St. W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 12, 2020 47   @ Oklahoma L 73-77 35%    
  Feb 15, 2020 63   Texas W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 17, 2020 1   @ Kansas L 66-81 8%    
  Feb 22, 2020 23   Texas Tech L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 25, 2020 61   TCU W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 29, 2020 64   @ Oklahoma St. L 72-74 43%    
  Mar 03, 2020 6   West Virginia L 71-76 34%    
  Mar 07, 2020 78   @ Kansas St. L 69-70 48%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.1 3.6 0.9 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 6.5 5.7 1.5 0.1 15.4 5th
6th 1.1 8.3 7.8 1.8 0.1 19.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 7.7 9.5 1.9 0.1 20.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.8 8.1 2.0 0.1 16.7 8th
9th 0.7 3.6 5.5 1.5 0.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.3 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.3 10th
Total 0.3 1.9 6.3 13.0 18.4 21.5 17.5 12.0 6.1 2.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 14.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 96.9% 7.8% 89.1% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 96.6%
11-7 2.3% 89.8% 3.5% 86.3% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 89.4%
10-8 6.1% 59.8% 3.1% 56.7% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.1 2.5 58.5%
9-9 12.0% 15.9% 2.7% 13.2% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.3 10.1 13.6%
8-10 17.5% 2.6% 1.8% 0.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 17.0 0.8%
7-11 21.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 21.2 0.0%
6-12 18.4% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.3
5-13 13.0% 0.4% 0.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0
4-14 6.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 6.2
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.1% 1.3% 7.8% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 90.9 7.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%