Iowa St.
Big 12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#42
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#123
Pace71.4#137
Improvement+0.6#87

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#20
First Shot+5.1#61
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#59
Layup/Dunks+7.4#18
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#227
Freethrows-1.9#276
Improvement+0.3#125

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#77
First Shot+3.4#84
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#176
Layups/Dunks+1.2#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#329
Freethrows+5.7#6
Improvement+0.4#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.8% 2.9% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 10.0% 10.3% 3.2%
Top 6 Seed 21.0% 21.6% 8.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.2% 47.1% 26.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.4% 44.3% 24.4%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 7.5
.500 or above 65.2% 66.4% 39.8%
.500 or above in Conference 44.8% 45.5% 30.2%
Conference Champion 4.8% 5.0% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 14.3% 13.8% 23.4%
First Four2.4% 2.5% 1.6%
First Round45.0% 45.9% 25.3%
Second Round28.7% 29.3% 16.5%
Sweet Sixteen12.6% 12.9% 7.2%
Elite Eight5.2% 5.4% 1.4%
Final Four2.2% 2.3% 0.8%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 95.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 46 - 11
Quad 24 - 210 - 14
Quad 32 - 011 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 352   Mississippi Valley W 110-74 99.5%    1 - 0 +12.8 +2.9 +2.8
  Nov 09, 2019 69   @ Oregon St. L 74-80 50%     1 - 1 +5.0 +4.7 +0.3
  Nov 12, 2019 155   Northern Illinois W 70-52 90%     2 - 1 +15.1 -1.7 +17.0
  Nov 19, 2019 233   Southern Miss W 79-61 96%    
  Nov 27, 2019 30   Michigan L 69-70 45%    
  Dec 04, 2019 268   UMKC W 81-61 96%    
  Dec 08, 2019 15   Seton Hall L 76-77 47%    
  Dec 12, 2019 63   Iowa W 83-78 69%    
  Dec 22, 2019 245   Purdue Fort Wayne W 90-71 95%    
  Dec 31, 2019 341   Florida A&M W 85-58 99%    
  Jan 04, 2020 56   @ TCU L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 08, 2020 3   Kansas L 74-80 31%    
  Jan 11, 2020 38   Oklahoma W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 15, 2020 19   @ Baylor L 75-81 31%    
  Jan 18, 2020 11   @ Texas Tech L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 21, 2020 48   Oklahoma St. W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 25, 2020 21   @ Auburn L 75-80 32%    
  Jan 29, 2020 19   Baylor W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 01, 2020 22   @ Texas L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 05, 2020 46   @ West Virginia L 77-80 42%    
  Feb 08, 2020 49   Kansas St. W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 12, 2020 38   @ Oklahoma L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 15, 2020 22   Texas W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 17, 2020 3   @ Kansas L 71-83 16%    
  Feb 22, 2020 11   Texas Tech L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 25, 2020 56   TCU W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 29, 2020 48   @ Oklahoma St. L 70-72 44%    
  Mar 03, 2020 46   West Virginia W 80-77 61%    
  Mar 07, 2020 49   @ Kansas St. L 64-66 45%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 4.8 1st
2nd 0.3 1.5 2.9 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.4 3.9 2.4 0.7 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.4 2.3 0.3 11.5 5th
6th 0.4 2.9 5.7 2.5 0.3 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.7 4.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 2.9 4.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.8 2.5 1.0 0.2 9.0 10th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.9 6.0 8.1 10.5 11.8 12.3 11.6 10.3 8.1 6.2 4.3 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 98.1% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 82.1% 1.1    1.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 52.1% 1.2    0.7 0.4 0.1
13-5 28.2% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 9.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 66.7% 33.3% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.4% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 2.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.3% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 3.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.3% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 4.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 6.2% 99.7% 10.4% 89.3% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7%
11-7 8.1% 97.9% 8.4% 89.5% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.7%
10-8 10.3% 89.2% 6.6% 82.6% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.1 88.5%
9-9 11.6% 69.3% 4.0% 65.3% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.6 68.0%
8-10 12.3% 37.5% 3.2% 34.2% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.1 7.7 35.4%
7-11 11.8% 11.4% 1.4% 10.0% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 10.5 10.2%
6-12 10.5% 2.1% 0.7% 1.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.3 1.4%
5-13 8.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.2%
4-14 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 9.0 0.0 6.0
3-15 3.9% 1.0% 1.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
2-16 1.9% 1.9
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 46.2% 5.0% 41.3% 6.7 1.0 1.8 3.3 3.9 5.0 5.9 6.1 6.8 4.7 3.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 53.8 43.4%