St. Francis Brooklyn
Northeast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#305
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#278
Pace72.3#102
Improvement+2.0#88

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#298
First Shot-3.2#281
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#281
Layup/Dunks+0.3#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#105
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#286
Freethrows-1.4#273
Improvement-0.8#228

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#297
First Shot-2.7#262
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#302
Layups/Dunks-5.9#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#98
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#34
Freethrows-1.6#277
Improvement+2.8#35
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.7% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 12.9% 21.1% 6.7%
.500 or above in Conference 21.7% 33.8% 12.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 1.8% 6.8%
First Four1.6% 2.1% 1.1%
First Round1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Away) - 42.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 31 - 51 - 6
Quad 411 - 1112 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 259   @ Fordham L 59-68 27%     0 - 1 -11.6 -8.1 -3.8
  Nov 09, 2019 193   Lafayette W 73-72 35%     1 - 1 -3.8 -9.2 +5.3
  Nov 14, 2019 320   @ Longwood L 77-86 43%     1 - 2 -15.9 +1.8 -17.7
  Nov 16, 2019 43   @ North Carolina St. L 64-95 3%     1 - 3 -17.4 -13.1 -0.4
  Nov 26, 2019 158   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 56-67 13%     1 - 4 -7.7 -15.1 +7.7
  Nov 30, 2019 271   @ St. Peter's L 59-67 29%     1 - 5 -11.2 -4.8 -7.4
  Dec 05, 2019 282   @ Hartford W 84-78 32%     2 - 5 +2.0 +1.9 -0.6
  Dec 07, 2019 272   @ Umass Lowell L 63-94 29%     2 - 6 -34.2 -16.3 -17.1
  Dec 10, 2019 326   Presbyterian W 64-63 66%     3 - 6 -12.1 -13.6 +1.5
  Dec 14, 2019 260   NJIT W 73-71 48%     4 - 6 -6.4 -6.5 +0.0
  Dec 22, 2019 348   Delaware St. W 81-62 86%     5 - 6 -1.4 -3.3 +0.4
  Jan 02, 2020 311   Fairleigh Dickinson W 79-63 63%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +3.9 -6.4 +9.6
  Jan 09, 2020 212   @ Robert Morris L 52-78 21%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -26.2 -18.1 -9.7
  Jan 11, 2020 185   @ St. Francis (PA) L 80-81 16%     6 - 8 1 - 2 +0.8 +2.3 -1.4
  Jan 15, 2020 247   LIU Brooklyn L 66-69 46%     6 - 9 1 - 3 -10.8 -10.4 -0.5
  Jan 18, 2020 324   @ Wagner L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 20, 2020 285   @ Mount St. Mary's L 63-67 34%    
  Jan 23, 2020 212   Robert Morris L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 25, 2020 185   St. Francis (PA) L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 30, 2020 281   @ Merrimack L 62-67 31%    
  Feb 01, 2020 204   Sacred Heart L 75-78 39%    
  Feb 06, 2020 231   @ Bryant L 69-77 23%    
  Feb 08, 2020 285   Mount St. Mary's W 66-65 55%    
  Feb 13, 2020 281   Merrimack W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 18, 2020 247   @ LIU Brooklyn L 73-80 26%    
  Feb 21, 2020 231   Bryant L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 23, 2020 324   Wagner W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 27, 2020 204   @ Sacred Heart L 72-81 20%    
  Feb 29, 2020 350   @ Central Connecticut St. W 74-68 72%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.1 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.4 3.0 2.7 0.2 6.4 5th
6th 0.3 3.0 5.0 0.8 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.7 2.0 0.1 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.2 8.1 4.0 0.2 17.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 5.6 9.4 5.3 0.6 22.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.4 7.0 7.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 23.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 11th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.2 8.9 13.9 17.6 17.6 14.7 10.7 6.7 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 82.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 41.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.2% 11.6% 11.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0
11-7 2.8% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.2 2.6
10-8 6.7% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.3
9-9 10.7% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.5 10.2
8-10 14.7% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.5 14.3
7-11 17.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 17.4
6-12 17.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.6
5-13 13.9% 13.9
4-14 8.9% 8.9
3-15 4.2% 4.2
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%