Texas Tech
Big 12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.2#11
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#102
Pace70.8#151
Improvement-0.8#283

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#27
First Shot+5.3#54
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#95
Layup/Dunks+1.7#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#86
Freethrows-0.4#192
Improvement-0.6#276

Defense
Total Defense+9.1#7
First Shot+4.3#68
After Offensive Rebounds+4.9#11
Layups/Dunks+2.3#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#213
Freethrows+2.4#66
Improvement-0.2#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.1% 3.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 12.1% 12.2% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 25.3% 25.5% 8.8%
Top 4 Seed 48.2% 48.6% 20.7%
Top 6 Seed 66.9% 67.4% 32.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.3% 88.6% 65.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.5% 85.8% 62.0%
Average Seed 4.5 4.5 6.3
.500 or above 97.0% 97.2% 84.3%
.500 or above in Conference 83.6% 83.9% 63.2%
Conference Champion 24.0% 24.2% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 2.0% 6.6%
First Four1.5% 1.4% 3.3%
First Round87.6% 87.9% 65.0%
Second Round70.6% 70.9% 44.4%
Sweet Sixteen42.5% 42.8% 21.2%
Elite Eight23.2% 23.4% 6.7%
Final Four11.8% 11.9% 2.8%
Championship Game6.1% 6.1% 2.8%
National Champion2.9% 2.9% 1.3%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 98.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 28 - 8
Quad 25 - 114 - 9
Quad 32 - 016 - 9
Quad 47 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 191   Eastern Illinois W 85-60 96%     1 - 0 +20.3 +7.0 +12.6
  Nov 09, 2019 337   Bethune-Cookman W 79-44 99%     2 - 0 +20.0 -5.9 +23.5
  Nov 13, 2019 293   Houston Baptist W 103-74 98%     3 - 0 +21.4 +6.6 +10.3
  Nov 21, 2019 243   Tennessee St. W 84-60 99%    
  Nov 24, 2019 248   LIU Brooklyn W 88-64 99%    
  Nov 28, 2019 63   Iowa W 81-73 76%    
  Dec 04, 2019 76   @ DePaul W 75-69 72%    
  Dec 10, 2019 4   Louisville L 70-73 38%    
  Dec 16, 2019 233   Southern Miss W 78-55 98%    
  Dec 21, 2019 282   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-57 99%    
  Dec 29, 2019 221   Cal St. Bakersfield W 79-57 98%    
  Jan 04, 2020 48   Oklahoma St. W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 07, 2020 19   Baylor W 77-71 69%    
  Jan 11, 2020 46   @ West Virginia W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 14, 2020 49   @ Kansas St. W 64-60 63%    
  Jan 18, 2020 42   Iowa St. W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 21, 2020 56   @ TCU W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 25, 2020 10   Kentucky W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 29, 2020 46   West Virginia W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 01, 2020 3   @ Kansas L 70-76 28%    
  Feb 04, 2020 38   Oklahoma W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 08, 2020 22   @ Texas W 67-66 50%    
  Feb 10, 2020 56   TCU W 76-66 80%    
  Feb 15, 2020 48   @ Oklahoma St. W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 19, 2020 49   Kansas St. W 67-57 80%    
  Feb 22, 2020 42   @ Iowa St. W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 25, 2020 38   @ Oklahoma W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 29, 2020 22   Texas W 70-64 70%    
  Mar 02, 2020 19   @ Baylor L 74-75 49%    
  Mar 07, 2020 3   Kansas L 73-74 48%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.6 5.8 6.6 4.2 2.0 0.6 24.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 6.3 7.3 4.5 1.7 0.3 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.5 2.8 6.3 4.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.8 3.0 0.8 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.2 2.7 0.3 9.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.5 0.2 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.8 4.3 6.7 8.9 10.9 12.4 13.0 12.5 10.5 8.4 4.5 2.0 0.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.0    1.9 0.1
16-2 92.6% 4.2    3.8 0.4
15-3 79.4% 6.6    5.0 1.5 0.1
14-4 55.2% 5.8    3.4 2.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 28.5% 3.6    1.3 1.7 0.5 0.1
12-6 8.4% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.0% 24.0 16.2 6.2 1.3 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 66.3% 33.7% 1.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.0% 100.0% 53.1% 46.9% 1.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.5% 100.0% 45.0% 55.0% 1.4 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.4% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 1.8 3.4 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.5% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 2.4 2.2 4.1 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.5% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 3.2 1.0 2.6 3.9 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.0% 99.9% 17.3% 82.7% 4.3 0.3 1.1 2.9 3.2 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 12.4% 99.1% 13.2% 85.9% 5.5 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 2.6 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.9%
10-8 10.9% 96.5% 10.4% 86.1% 6.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 96.1%
9-9 8.9% 89.0% 7.5% 81.6% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.0 88.2%
8-10 6.7% 66.2% 4.3% 61.8% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.3 64.6%
7-11 4.3% 29.1% 2.2% 26.9% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.1 27.5%
6-12 2.8% 13.3% 1.6% 11.7% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4 11.9%
5-13 1.3% 2.7% 0.7% 2.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.0%
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 88.3% 19.3% 69.0% 4.5 12.1 13.2 12.5 10.4 9.9 8.8 6.9 5.8 3.9 2.7 1.9 0.2 11.7 85.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 84.4 15.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0