Southeastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
7 Alabama 100.0%   1   13 - 3 8 - 0 21 - 6 16 - 2 +17.4      +9.4 11 +7.9 11 83.0 7 +17.2 10 +27.8 1
18 Tennessee 94.5%   5   10 - 3 4 - 3 18 - 6 11 - 6 +14.9      +5.6 55 +9.3 3 64.3 302 +14.1 31 +12.0 6
21 Florida 83.6%   6   8 - 4 5 - 3 15 - 8 11 - 7 +13.7      +8.2 16 +5.5 44 71.6 129 +12.6 43 +12.5 3
32 Missouri 97.4%   5   10 - 2 4 - 2 17 - 6 10 - 6 +12.3      +5.3 62 +7.0 23 69.4 194 +19.0 8 +15.0 2
40 LSU 76.6%   8   10 - 4 5 - 3 16 - 8 10 - 7 +11.7      +10.4 7 +1.3 137 73.2 89 +12.0 49 +12.5 4
41 Arkansas 76.5%   9   12 - 4 4 - 4 18 - 9 10 - 8 +11.7      +6.1 46 +5.5 43 79.5 17 +12.3 45 +11.1 7
51 Kentucky 14.7%   5 - 9 4 - 3 10 - 15 9 - 8 +10.6      +2.8 100 +7.8 13 67.1 245 +5.7 89 +12.2 5
57 Auburn 0.0%   9 - 7 3 - 5 14 - 13 8 - 10 +10.1      +6.0 47 +4.1 68 74.2 66 +8.2 73 +7.3 9
62 Mississippi 16.1%   8 - 6 3 - 4 13 - 11 8 - 9 +9.4      +2.7 103 +6.7 27 67.5 238 +5.3 98 +7.2 10
75 Mississippi St. 7.7%   9 - 7 4 - 4 14 - 13 8 - 10 +7.4      +4.7 71 +2.6 105 64.7 292 +5.7 92 +8.1 8
89 South Carolina 4.2%   3 - 5 1 - 3 7 - 12 5 - 10 +6.0      +3.5 85 +2.5 108 80.9 11 +3.4 125 +1.9 13
97 Georgia 3.7%   8 - 5 2 - 5 12 - 12 6 - 12 +5.5      +4.0 81 +1.5 131 79.5 18 +7.4 76 +4.9 12
124 Texas A&M 0.4%   7 - 6 2 - 5 10 - 14 5 - 12 +3.0      -1.6 206 +4.6 59 62.0 334 +5.4 97 +5.7 11
146 Vanderbilt 0.0%   4 - 7 0 - 5 6 - 16 2 - 14 +1.1      +2.9 98 -1.8 222 71.0 144 -2.5 193 -5.9 14






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Alabama 1.0 98.2 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee 3.7 1.5 34.2 23.4 14.5 10.0 6.6 4.4 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida 3.2 2.8 44.2 20.6 12.9 8.8 5.2 3.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri 5.1 0.8 14.5 16.4 15.8 13.9 11.7 9.3 7.1 5.0 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
LSU 4.7 0.8 16.0 17.2 16.9 15.5 12.6 8.7 5.9 3.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
Arkansas 5.0 0.7 14.9 16.5 16.1 14.3 12.4 9.5 6.7 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1
Kentucky 6.4 0.3 6.2 8.8 10.5 12.3 13.5 13.9 12.6 10.0 7.3 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
Auburn 7.5 0.1 2.4 4.6 7.1 9.7 11.5 13.4 13.9 13.6 12.3 7.7 3.1 0.8 0.1
Mississippi 7.9 0.0 1.9 4.1 6.2 8.1 9.9 11.7 13.0 13.9 13.8 10.4 5.2 1.7 0.2
Mississippi St. 7.5 0.0 2.2 4.4 6.8 9.1 11.4 13.8 15.0 14.5 11.5 7.1 3.1 0.8 0.1
South Carolina 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.4 5.1 7.8 11.6 17.4 22.0 21.5 6.7
Georgia 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.5 7.2 10.7 15.8 20.9 17.9 14.0 2.7
Texas A&M 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 5.0 9.2 17.4 29.6 26.8 6.0
Vanderbilt 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.3 8.7 18.3 67.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Alabama 16 - 2 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.2 10.4 20.1 27.9 25.4 10.6
Tennessee 11 - 7 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.6 10.7 18.1 23.9 22.8 13.8 4.2
Florida 11 - 7 0.1 0.6 2.5 7.6 16.0 22.9 24.0 16.9 7.7 1.8
Missouri 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 2.1 6.3 12.7 18.9 21.8 19.5 12.1 5.1 1.0
LSU 10 - 8 0.1 1.0 4.2 10.9 19.5 24.3 21.8 13.0 4.5 0.8
Arkansas 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.7 5.5 12.0 19.4 22.9 19.9 12.3 4.9 1.0
Kentucky 9 - 9 0.2 1.6 5.7 13.0 20.6 22.9 18.9 11.2 4.6 1.2 0.1
Auburn 8 - 10 0.1 1.1 4.6 10.9 18.8 22.4 20.8 13.5 5.8 1.7 0.2
Mississippi 8 - 10 0.3 2.1 7.0 13.7 19.4 21.5 18.0 11.2 5.0 1.5 0.2
Mississippi St. 8 - 10 0.6 3.7 10.9 19.7 23.5 20.5 12.6 6.1 1.9 0.3 0.0
South Carolina 5 - 13 1.2 5.1 11.5 16.9 20.4 18.6 13.5 7.7 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
Georgia 6 - 12 1.0 5.5 13.2 20.3 22.5 18.6 11.2 5.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M 5 - 13 3.6 13.7 24.1 25.6 18.1 9.8 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
Vanderbilt 2 - 16 8.5 20.8 26.0 21.2 13.6 6.5 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Alabama 98.2% 94.0 3.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tennessee 1.5% 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida 2.8% 0.8 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Missouri 0.8% 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
LSU 0.8% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 0.7% 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Auburn 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Mississippi St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 0.0% 0.0
Georgia 0.0% 0.0
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Alabama 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 1   30.5 34.0 17.8 9.8 4.5 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Tennessee 94.5% 17.9% 76.6% 5   2.3 6.5 12.9 14.3 15.3 14.7 9.8 7.8 4.6 3.2 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.5 93.3%
Florida 83.6% 14.6% 69.0% 6   0.8 2.6 6.1 8.2 10.0 11.6 10.9 10.2 7.1 6.0 5.3 3.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 16.4 80.8%
Missouri 97.4% 8.4% 89.0% 5   2.2 6.6 11.7 14.6 15.5 14.9 12.0 8.1 5.4 3.0 2.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 2.6 97.2%
LSU 76.6% 7.3% 69.2% 8   0.2 0.8 2.1 4.0 6.3 8.4 10.7 12.3 11.3 9.1 6.5 4.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 23.4 74.7%
Arkansas 76.5% 7.3% 69.2% 9   0.2 0.7 2.0 3.9 6.1 8.6 10.1 11.9 11.5 9.6 7.5 3.9 0.5 0.0 23.5 74.7%
Kentucky 14.7% 4.7% 10.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 3.3 1.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 85.3 10.5%
Auburn 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Mississippi 16.1% 2.6% 13.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.9 3.6 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 83.9 13.8%
Mississippi St. 7.7% 1.3% 6.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.3 6.4%
South Carolina 4.2% 0.6% 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 95.8 3.6%
Georgia 3.7% 0.5% 3.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.3 3.2%
Texas A&M 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.4%
Vanderbilt 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Alabama 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.7% 61.6% 35.4% 17.4% 7.9% 3.3%
Tennessee 94.5% 1.4% 93.9% 67.8% 35.6% 15.9% 6.7% 2.7% 0.9%
Florida 83.6% 5.3% 81.4% 52.3% 23.8% 10.0% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5%
Missouri 97.4% 1.7% 96.5% 61.5% 26.9% 9.8% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3%
LSU 76.6% 5.7% 73.6% 39.3% 13.6% 5.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2%
Arkansas 76.5% 5.1% 74.0% 38.9% 13.3% 4.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Kentucky 14.7% 4.9% 12.6% 6.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Auburn 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi 16.1% 3.9% 14.2% 6.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi St. 7.7% 2.1% 6.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina 4.2% 1.5% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia 3.7% 1.4% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vanderbilt 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.8 0.0 0.3 6.0 30.9 45.5 15.7 1.7 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 5.6 0.0 0.6 8.5 35.7 42.7 11.6 1.0 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 3.7 0.1 1.7 11.2 30.1 34.8 18.2 3.7 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 92.3% 1.8 7.7 31.5 38.2 18.4 3.8 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 63.4% 0.8 36.6 45.9 15.7 1.8 0.1
Final Four 32.2% 0.4 67.8 29.4 2.8 0.1
Final Game 13.9% 0.1 86.1 13.7 0.2
Champion 5.3% 0.1 94.7 5.3