Tennessee
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.7#13
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#14
Pace64.3#301
Improvement-4.8#342

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#54
First Shot+6.0#40
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#193
Layup/Dunks+1.8#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#276
Freethrows+3.1#21
Improvement-1.0#245

Defense
Total Defense+10.0#2
First Shot+6.6#20
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#11
Layups/Dunks+4.4#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#167
Freethrows+3.1#23
Improvement-3.7#337
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 6.6% 8.2% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 19.2% 23.0% 7.9%
Top 4 Seed 52.9% 59.0% 34.7%
Top 6 Seed 78.1% 82.9% 63.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.0% 98.1% 93.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.1% 97.5% 92.3%
Average Seed 4.6 4.3 5.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 98.9% 93.2%
Conference Champion 5.6% 6.8% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.6% 2.1%
First Round96.5% 97.8% 92.7%
Second Round76.1% 79.3% 66.3%
Sweet Sixteen43.8% 46.9% 34.7%
Elite Eight21.4% 23.5% 15.3%
Final Four9.8% 11.0% 6.3%
Championship Game4.3% 4.8% 2.9%
National Champion1.7% 1.8% 1.2%

Next Game: Missouri (Home) - 74.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 4
Quad 26 - 110 - 6
Quad 35 - 016 - 6
Quad 44 - 020 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 08, 2020 18   Colorado W 56-47 61%     1 - 0 +21.7 -6.5 +29.0
  Dec 12, 2020 85   Cincinnati W 65-56 85%     2 - 0 +13.8 -5.4 +19.0
  Dec 15, 2020 197   Appalachian St. W 79-38 96%     3 - 0 +36.5 +16.9 +27.1
  Dec 18, 2020 304   Tennessee Tech W 103-49 98%     4 - 0 +43.1 +21.5 +19.7
  Dec 21, 2020 201   Saint Joseph's W 102-66 96%     5 - 0 +31.3 +14.0 +13.5
  Dec 23, 2020 316   South Carolina Upstate W 80-60 99%     6 - 0 +7.6 +8.1 +1.5
  Dec 30, 2020 38   @ Missouri W 73-53 59%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +33.4 +7.7 +25.6
  Jan 02, 2021 7   Alabama L 63-71 49%     7 - 1 1 - 1 +7.8 -2.0 +9.8
  Jan 06, 2021 42   Arkansas W 79-74 73%     8 - 1 2 - 1 +14.3 +8.0 +6.2
  Jan 09, 2021 120   @ Texas A&M W 68-54 84%     9 - 1 3 - 1 +19.3 +15.4 +7.0
  Jan 16, 2021 137   Vanderbilt W 81-61 92%     10 - 1 4 - 1 +20.1 +7.6 +12.9
  Jan 19, 2021 22   @ Florida L 49-75 51%     10 - 2 4 - 2 -10.5 -16.5 +6.0
  Jan 23, 2021 38   Missouri W 68-62 75%    
  Jan 26, 2021 78   Mississippi St. W 69-59 86%    
  Jan 30, 2021 15   Kansas W 67-65 62%    
  Feb 02, 2021 62   @ Mississippi W 66-61 63%    
  Feb 06, 2021 60   @ Kentucky W 64-60 61%    
  Feb 10, 2021 22   Florida W 69-65 67%    
  Feb 13, 2021 30   @ LSU W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 16, 2021 69   South Carolina W 74-65 83%    
  Feb 20, 2021 60   Kentucky W 66-58 80%    
  Feb 24, 2021 137   @ Vanderbilt W 74-62 84%    
  Feb 27, 2021 64   @ Auburn W 70-65 64%    
  Mar 03, 2021 94   Georgia W 77-65 89%    
Projected Record 19 - 5 12 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 1.8 5.6 1st
2nd 0.1 3.2 13.2 18.7 12.0 3.2 50.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 8.5 8.5 2.4 0.1 21.5 3rd
4th 0.4 4.5 4.9 1.0 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 3.3 0.7 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.7 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.8 10.6 17.4 22.9 22.4 14.5 4.9 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 35.6% 1.8    0.7 1.0
14-4 16.5% 2.4    0.8 1.5 0.1
13-5 5.5% 1.2    0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 1.7 3.3 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 4.9% 100.0% 37.6% 62.4% 1.7 2.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-4 14.5% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 2.3 3.1 5.6 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 22.4% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 3.3 1.1 4.2 7.6 6.0 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 22.9% 99.8% 22.0% 77.9% 4.6 0.1 0.8 4.1 6.5 5.9 3.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 17.4% 98.5% 16.7% 81.8% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.7 4.7 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 98.2%
10-8 10.6% 94.6% 12.1% 82.4% 7.4 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 93.9%
9-9 4.8% 83.4% 6.4% 77.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.8 82.2%
8-10 1.8% 56.5% 5.1% 51.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 54.1%
7-11 0.6% 23.5% 3.1% 20.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 21.1%
6-12 0.1% 10.3% 3.4% 6.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.1%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.0% 22.3% 74.7% 4.6 6.6 12.6 17.2 16.5 13.4 11.7 6.7 5.0 2.9 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.0 96.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 1.3 70.4 28.0 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 1.6 49.4 39.1 11.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 1.8 41.9 41.6 15.7 0.8