LSU
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#30
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#36
Pace72.9#100
Improvement-2.6#305

Offense
Total Offense+11.0#5
First Shot+7.5#18
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#23
Layup/Dunks-1.4#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#31
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#121
Freethrows+3.8#10
Improvement-3.3#337

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#133
First Shot+2.3#93
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#236
Layups/Dunks+5.2#21
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#179
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#331
Freethrows+2.3#45
Improvement+0.7#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.4% 5.8% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 15.7% 23.2% 8.6%
Top 6 Seed 36.9% 48.5% 25.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.8% 92.5% 79.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.3% 91.6% 77.8%
Average Seed 7.0 6.4 7.7
.500 or above 98.9% 99.8% 98.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.3% 96.7% 84.2%
Conference Champion 2.3% 3.8% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.2% 2.5% 5.7%
First Round83.6% 91.3% 76.4%
Second Round49.1% 56.8% 41.7%
Sweet Sixteen19.2% 23.7% 15.0%
Elite Eight7.4% 9.4% 5.5%
Final Four2.7% 3.5% 1.9%
Championship Game0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Kentucky (Away) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 7
Quad 24 - 28 - 8
Quad 35 - 013 - 9
Quad 44 - 017 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 26, 2020 300   SIU Edwardsville W 94-81 96%     1 - 0 +4.3 +19.5 -15.1
  Nov 28, 2020 32   @ Saint Louis L 81-85 44%     1 - 1 +10.0 +18.9 -9.1
  Nov 30, 2020 323   SE Louisiana W 96-43 98%     2 - 1 +39.8 +12.2 +25.5
  Dec 06, 2020 110   Louisiana Tech W 86-55 82%     3 - 1 +33.5 +10.3 +21.0
  Dec 14, 2020 176   Sam Houston St. W 88-66 92%     4 - 1 +19.0 +3.5 +12.9
  Dec 26, 2020 189   Nicholls St. W 86-80 93%     5 - 1 +1.9 +6.4 -4.9
  Dec 29, 2020 120   Texas A&M W 77-54 84%     6 - 1 1 - 0 +24.6 +15.9 +11.2
  Jan 02, 2021 22   @ Florida L 79-83 38%     6 - 2 1 - 1 +11.5 +13.1 -1.6
  Jan 06, 2021 94   Georgia W 94-92 OT 80%     7 - 2 2 - 1 +5.7 +5.1 +0.2
  Jan 09, 2021 62   @ Mississippi W 75-61 55%     8 - 2 3 - 1 +25.0 +9.3 +15.7
  Jan 13, 2021 42   Arkansas W 92-76 62%     9 - 2 4 - 1 +25.3 +9.9 +13.0
  Jan 16, 2021 69   South Carolina W 85-80 72%     10 - 2 5 - 1 +11.2 +7.5 +3.3
  Jan 19, 2021 7   Alabama L 75-105 37%     10 - 3 5 - 2 -14.2 +0.4 -11.0
  Jan 23, 2021 60   @ Kentucky W 74-73 49%    
  Jan 26, 2021 120   @ Texas A&M W 74-67 71%    
  Jan 30, 2021 16   Texas Tech L 74-75 50%    
  Feb 03, 2021 7   @ Alabama L 82-89 22%    
  Feb 06, 2021 22   Florida W 79-78 56%    
  Feb 10, 2021 78   @ Mississippi St. W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 13, 2021 13   Tennessee L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 20, 2021 64   Auburn W 82-77 73%    
  Feb 23, 2021 94   @ Georgia W 86-81 64%    
  Feb 27, 2021 42   @ Arkansas L 82-83 44%    
  Mar 02, 2021 137   Vanderbilt W 86-74 89%    
Projected Record 16 - 8 11 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 2.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 8.4 8.1 2.9 0.2 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 10.7 8.7 1.8 0.0 24.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 9.2 8.1 1.4 0.0 20.1 4th
5th 0.3 4.6 6.9 1.2 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 5.0 1.5 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 1.9 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.3 7.0 13.4 20.6 22.4 18.6 10.6 4.0 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 62.5% 0.4    0.2 0.2
14-4 25.0% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.1
13-5 6.7% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.6% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 2.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.0% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 3.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.6% 99.9% 17.5% 82.5% 4.3 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.9 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 18.6% 99.4% 12.8% 86.6% 5.7 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.8 4.1 4.5 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-7 22.4% 97.3% 9.1% 88.2% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.1 4.9 4.4 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.6 97.0%
10-8 20.6% 89.8% 5.4% 84.4% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.0 4.2 3.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.1 89.3%
9-9 13.4% 68.2% 3.0% 65.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.3 67.2%
8-10 7.0% 33.5% 2.2% 31.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.6 32.0%
7-11 2.3% 9.7% 1.7% 8.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 8.1%
6-12 0.5% 1.7% 1.3% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.5 0.4%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 85.8% 9.0% 76.7% 7.0 0.9 2.5 4.8 7.5 9.6 11.7 11.8 11.3 10.1 7.3 4.9 3.0 0.4 0.0 14.2 84.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 64.7 32.4 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 54.3 28.6 14.3 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.8 36.4 43.9 18.2 1.5